Renewable Energy Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 22/4/2015 19:20

My guess is that my estimate would now be not more than 22p per share if everything comes right.

John

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22p! That would do me!

[john of groats] 22/4/2015 17:33

A company only has to keep missing targets and deadlines and its MCap disappears into a black hole. The converse is that, if it survives long enough, hitting a target or deadline can work wonders.

John

[drif] 22/4/2015 08:01

JOG,To little middle ground between the big parties has given opportunities to the little groups and rightly so, a spotlight in politics is often a highlight!Good luck with the conservatives and go get some more votes!Thanks for your post to the value of REH, interesting. However did REH get to this low MCap?

[bckttsim] 22/4/2015 06:33

Looking at what is happening In Poland , wind farms are more popular with RWE investing and building quite a number, there are other companies doing the same thing. With the likes of IKEA also investing big time , the possibility of a sale of our farm must be high.

[john of groats] 21/4/2015 21:41

drif,

Thanks. The Conservative vote in Hertfordshire seems to be holding up but, with all the minor parties gaining support these days you can never be sure.

My last estimate of REH's net asset value (assuming sale of Kobylany and Mynydd y Gwynt and based on an share price of AU$0.1 for CWE and an exchange rate of AU$1.7267 per £) was just short of £20m or 28.6p per share.

Since then debt has increased, CWE has fallen to AU$0.057 and the AU$ has fallen to 1.9253 to the £. My guess is that my estimate would now be not more than 22p per share if everything comes right.

John

[drif] 21/4/2015 15:32

JOGGood luck on the votes front.

[drif] 21/4/2015 15:31

Dear John (No pun intended)I know that well! Reh is a design shell, they will not build, they are not builders, however the land (after expences) will still be worth many millions (if achieved) The value of CWE in November will most likely be more than today and with company dept running at 5.4m will account for the majority of that later this year. The value of the Polish asset will be a further dept reducing / cash + asset, when sold. REH even as a cash shell with no assets is worth something at the end for purposes of reversing.I made some figures and found REH outstanding value or highly undervalued with its dept underwritten by the biggest shareholder. Also Planning permission most likely to go ahead only after a general election.I understand REH have depts and land payment contracts, the best part is nobody gets paid if there is no planning granted, even in that case REH is fair value today.

[john of groats] 21/4/2015 14:54

drif,

By quoting the value of Mynydd y Gwynt when built, you are deceiving yourself as to the actual value of your shares. REH will never build it. They are little more than a shell company with no capability to manage such a project. If they do receive planning permission, they will put it up for sale unbuilt.

At, say, £500k per MW unbuilt, it could sell for £40.5m, but out of that REH will have to pay the origional owners, Mynydd y Gwynt Ltd, £18.225m and a success fee to Utilico of at least £6.5m (it may be more if Utilico extracted an additional fee for rolling over the debt). Then there are the debts of about £5m to repay. So REH would be left with about £10m for Mynydd y Gwynt, not £100m.


My last attempt at a total valuation for REH was more than 18 months ago and I have had more pressing affairs than tracking REH to deal with since then. At the moment I am almost fully occupied with the election campaign but will try to find time to bring my predictions up to date later, possibly after the annual report for 2014 is released.

John

[whoppy] 21/4/2015 14:23

576,540 buy at 2.6p...wow £15k

Paying 2.7p for small amounts..looks like 3p on the way.

[21trader] 21/4/2015 14:18

He is filtered always will be just makes up outrageous stories up everybody
should filter him.

[brucie5] 21/4/2015 13:43

Hope you're right.

I also hope noone is dawn into this by Tenmuijn's shameless ramp though..

[drif] 21/4/2015 13:41

Your correct, its cancelled out but is an asset on the books thats going up. Dept situ will not increase this year Im told by a director. Altoghter a healthy binery play, pure and simple its going to go up from here.

[brucie5] 21/4/2015 13:34

Thanks drif. Re. the CWE holding, the disconnect seems very odd, except that there is some debt on the books I believe, which cancels this out?

I bought a few more just now and will be happy to see if Tenmujn is right.

[drif] 21/4/2015 13:25

BrucieA Director I spoke with would not be drawn on the potential value of the wales asset, but a built farm of a simular size is worth over a £100m. Your reasearch could start with the dept being held by the biggest shareholder, thats confidence especially as the CWE shares worth over 3.5Million are held in trust as part of the deal ;-) (so cant be sold)

[temmujin] 21/4/2015 13:15

been told to buy in by friday..reliable source...massive news expected

[joeblogg2] 21/4/2015 12:17

Moving back up again. Profit takers will have to pay higher price to buy back if they sell!!!

[brucie5] 21/4/2015 09:46

Some questions, please, as a happy holder of two weeks:
1. where does informed opinion see this going?
2. according to the website they are looking to wind up their assets and return cash to shareholders. So the Welsh wind farm facility, such as it may be allowed to proceed, will be sold prior to construction?

[whoppy] 21/4/2015 08:28

Buy's all ready..and we move on up. Does seem that this is the start of a rerate. Not the mad one day spikes seen in the past..just steady buys and steady increase in share price

[drif] 21/4/2015 07:55

BCKTTSIM Quite right, we never know, im quite sure this is going to settle well above 3 and nearer 4 over the next week. The end of May news will push this lots.

[bckttsim] 21/4/2015 07:05

News.......... You never know what may be happening here.Polish sale may be on the cards etc.

[drif] 20/4/2015 23:13

We dont have news on the way, well not this week, we just have a steady rerate, the news is.... look at the MC of REH, under 1.5M, and thats after 2 fine days, the rerate will run ahead before end of May. Very happy to have found this sleeping.

[21trader] 20/4/2015 22:01

The sudden strength does suggest news is coming because it's been so long since
the last batch of good news.

[whoppy] 20/4/2015 21:58

I think someone is watching this..trades come close together..especially in last 2-3mins of trading around 4:30pm It's as if someone is expecting big news and doesn't want to be out.

[21trader] 20/4/2015 21:47

Indeed and held all gains and close at high. I can see it testing 3p tomorrow if support continues.

[bckttsim] 20/4/2015 15:03

Rising quite nicely today again .