Renew Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 30/11/2021 20:40

That's an interesting point , I make it 50.2% , between 7 funds.
A takeover would be a tragedy , it would make Rivaldo retire !

[mattboxy] 30/11/2021 18:16

Thanks for the linkSo between the guys listed there they have~50%!

[sharw] 30/11/2021 16:26

All AIM companies have to put substantial holder list on their website. Here is this one:

hTtps://www.renewholdings.com/investors/major-shareholders

[mattboxy] 30/11/2021 14:51

Thanks rivaldoDo you happen to know who any other big holders are?

[rivaldo] 30/11/2021 06:57

Yep, great to see Octopus go above 19% - they've added almost another 800,000 shares since their last holdings RNS:

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/renew-holdings-plc--rnwh-/rns/holding-s--in-company/202111291712019403T/

Mattboxy, there have certainly been the occasional takeover rumours in the past from memory.

[mattboxy] 29/11/2021 22:42

Octopus investments over 19%That's a fair old stake. Especially for anyone considering a takeover. Is that possible here??

[rivaldo] 26/11/2021 06:35

Nice mention from Shore Capital this morning in a comment on HILS:

Https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/expert-view-diageo-lloyds-mitchells/a1588193

"Hill & Smith (HILS) continues to perform strongly, but there are better value options to access the infrastructure boom, says Shore Capital....

....We see Renew Holdings (RNWH) as a more attractive opportunity for investors seeking to capitalise on an expected increase in government spending on infrastructure.’"

[rivaldo] 23/11/2021 15:57

News from 4 days ago (Nov 19th) re Clarke Telecom's EV charging point services.....

Https://twitter.com/ClarkeEVUK/status/1461670410857160709

"Clarke EV
@ClarkeEVUK

We have been awarded a place on ESPO!

We have joined the Vehicle Charging Infrastructure 2 (VCI 2) framework for the purchase of EV charging points and consultancy services.

Our values at Clarke EV are aligned with ESPO, helping us to provide the best possible service."

This is a £1 billion framework:

Https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W21/751567163

[rivaldo] 22/11/2021 14:09

Peel Hunt's 20 page note from early November (with a 900p target) is actually very well written and a good read - finally there's someone who "gets it" as regards RNWH's attributes and both defensive and growth characteristics.

Interestingly they consider their forecasts are conservative. And they have a 957p valuation on a conservative DCF basis which does not reflect any potential from M&A growth.

They conclude as follows:

"Valuation

The shares trade on 14.6x/14.5x/13.5x FY22/23/24E EPS. We would also highlight the strong free cash flow yield: 6.2% in FY23E, rising to 6.7% in FY24E.

It is important to recognise that Renew is not directly comparable with other
UK-listed contractors (given its exposure to longer-term frameworks, exposure to
more resilient and enduring services, and the directly employed workforce). The
recent outperformance has in part been driven by this growing appreciation of
the differentiation and operational resilience.

However, the most recent EPS upgrade seems to have been somewhat overlooked, in our view.

Historic multiples

In terms of PE multiples, Renew has traded on a 12-month forward PE of between 8.5x (December 2018) and 16x (September 2021). The market has started to recognise Renew’s quality of compounding earnings and long-term growth opportunities better, with the cash-financed acquisition of Browne (March 2021) an important catalyst.

Even more recently, as we illustrated in Chart 13, the continued growth in
forward EPS has been met with some share price weakness.

Compounding growth peers

Although Renew operates in similar market verticals to other listed infrastructure
companies, the different business model, financial characteristics and M&A
potential materially distort comparisons. As noted earlier, we believe this
differentiator has only been partially recognised by the market. However, we are able to make some more meaningful comparisons to other growth compounding companies, in particular those that can augment organic growth (including structural growth) with selective M&A, such as Renew.

Discounted cash flow

We do not use our DCF as a primary valuation tool, but rather as a sense check.
Our standalone conservative base-case DCF values Renew at 957p. This does not reflect any potential future bolt-on M&A growth (including structural growth) with selective M&A, such as Renew.

Conclusion
Our share price target of 900p is driven primarily by the organic growth potential
and compounding free cash flow model. We see our estimates as conservatively set also given our assessment of the market dynamics. Future M&A is likely to drive EPS upgrades as well as open up new opportunities. Renew remains a conviction Buy in our opinion."

[rivaldo] 17/11/2021 09:43

Extremely good news for RNWH's Amco Giffen last week.

On Network Rail's £4 billion construction works framework for Wales and the West of England, one of the four contractors on the framework has collapsed into administration - and their workload will be allocated to the three remaining contractors including Amco Giffen (rather than a replacement contractor being appointed):

Https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/collapsed-contractor-will-not-be-replaced-on-network-rails-4bn-construction-framework-12-11-2021/

Extract:

"Network Rail will not seek a replacement contractor for its £4bn construction works framework for Wales and the West of England, despite one of its suppliers entering into administration earlier this week".

"The framework covers construction works for bridges, tunnels, shafts and subways in the two regions. It comes under Network Rail's five year control period 6 (CP6) delivery plan which runs from 2019-2024.

Western region works in CP6 include integration of Crossrail’s Elizabeth Line into the network and renovation and refurbishment of the roof of Bristol Temple Meads Station."

[harrogate] 16/11/2021 08:18

I agree with that but possible mark down as not fully appreciated

[wad collector] 09/11/2021 17:08

I exaggerated, they are at number 53 by capitalisation. And I hadn't noticed that the order was that rather than top 100. There were not many buys or avoids mostly holds.

[sharw] 09/11/2021 09:32

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-aim-100-index/constituents/table

click on market cap to sort by that

[mattboxy] 09/11/2021 07:55

Ok thanks. Are there really 64 companies worth more on aim? That surprised me quite a bit!

[zangdook] 09/11/2021 05:58

They've only published the bottom 50 so far, but as far as I can tell they're ordered by market cap - it's the constituents of the AIM 100 index rather than a list of recommendations. Some of them are listed as "avoid".

[mattboxy] 08/11/2021 22:40

Do u know what the top 10 were?

[wad collector] 08/11/2021 09:26

Featured in IC's best 100 AIM companies this week , usual sort of stuff. Though it was about number 65 so not a massive recommendation!

[harrogate] 05/11/2021 07:31

That is an interesting buy for sure. Not sure I have seen such a buy above the spread here before

[rivaldo] 05/11/2021 07:25

:o))

A £1.34m buy at 814p bodes rather well (and no, it wasn't me!). There were a few other late reported buys around 814p too....today might be interesting.

[cwa1] 04/11/2021 17:14

Nah, petty cash tin for that amount for Rivaldo wad :-)

[wad collector] 04/11/2021 16:49

165,000 buy , looks like Rivaldo has been opening his wallet again.

[mattboxy] 04/11/2021 16:40

So what's with the after hours trades at 8-14??

[jeff h] 03/11/2021 13:52

Thanks for that riv, as well as all your other ferreting around and posting your finds.

[rivaldo] 03/11/2021 12:59

More contract wins for Carnell announced today - these are in addition to the £147m announced only six weeks ago:

Https://www.carnellgroup.co.uk/carnell-secure-tst-contracts/

"Carnell Secure TST Contracts

Carnell are thrilled to announce that we have been awarded two Technical Survey and Testing (TST) – Drainage contracts for National Highways.

As the leading provider of DDMS drainage surveys to National Highways for the last 16 years, we have won the maximum number of lots allowed through the procurement process, which are:

North West – Areas 10 and 13.
Yorkshire North East – Areas 12 and 14.

The framework agreements are worth £14m across their seven-year duration and cover the delivery of ‘CS 551 Drainage Surveys’ on the strategic road network.

Following the publication of the contract notices, Andrew Sharp, Managing Director said: “This is another fantastic achievement that brings the total value of our forward programme to £161m from the TST and SDF framework successes alone. I’d like to extend my appreciation to our Water Management team, from those involved in our site operations, to our Technical Services department. All have played their part in delivering innovative and reliable solutions, which resulted in the award of these long-term TST contracts. We look forward to working collaboratively with National Highways and their partners to provide the most accurate and efficient surveys to support the management of their drainage asset.”