Reneuron Share Discussion Threads

[wigwammer] 02/10/2019 19:43

So the latest data suggests that 2 of the initial 3 candidates have seen efficacy go from strength to strength. At the last call they were reading nearly 6 lines lower than at baseline - unprecedented. Strange that no one has mentioned it :)

[king1pin2] 02/10/2019 19:37

sizematters Yes fair comment and a balanced argument so each to there own as they say.
My view is that they are at fair value now in view of the rns .

[wigwammer] 02/10/2019 19:08

S1ze.. the data for the first 3 candidates saw another significant step up from sub 23 letters after 4 months to 28.7 letters after 6 months. Why do you not mention this?

[s1zematters] 02/10/2019 18:34

supernumerary

The previous data has built up a certain amount of expectation. The company recently talked about NHS treatment in a presentation pushed in a you-tube video pumped on this very thread!

If the share price yesterday had an element already built in of expectation of widespread future uptake (including nhs) then today's new data questions that somewhat. That was my point!.

Shares look forward in this sector by many years, some of the exuberance of the future has been depressed by that data. Moreover, future commercial returns have naturally also been questioned today by some.
Temporarily ? Maybe, maybe not!

I am not claiming that the treatment in this state would be offered to the NHS as you alluded, that's not only ridiculous, but the genuine "straw man" argument suggesting i was . It's a question mark of expectation of widespread future usage that in part explains the share price collapse today.

On one hand You suggest we ignore the steep fall in improvement after 9 months and on the other you assure us that Fosun are happy with the data?
It takes a certain sort of narcissistic tendency in owns own investment choices , or maybe just outright reckless abandonment if you choose to discount data you don't like and invent approval from others that you have no way of validating..

Kingpin.

That is a very nice share price ride, well done!
However,please understand me, i was asked what reason/s do i see the share price falling. My posts have generally been about the impact of that data on the share price going forward until the next data rather than predicting the success or failure long term of the treatment!

[dickbush] 02/10/2019 18:14

Not a good day to be reporting trial results that have left a question mark. An absolutely appalling day for the market.

[supernumerary] 02/10/2019 18:03

The investigator doesn't seem overly concerned:

'Dr. Pravin Dugel commented:

"I am looking forward to presenting and discussing these encouraging data at the upcoming AAO meeting in San Francisco. I believe that we are seeing a clear signal of efficacy in this patient population where any gain in vision, let alone the levels seen in some of these patients, is so hard to come by and so very much appreciated."'

Best to wait until we know the full story, I think.

[waterloo01] 02/10/2019 17:58

Sold my final slug today, having sold most too early. Been a ride but it's seen some significant growth over the last year having been around 50p - 80p for yonks and the results today do raise a question. You can't have 10% who's sight gets worse because of the procedure.

Agree with Nobby, they need to hit this head on and explain why. Will look in again once they have done that.

Edit: Woody still holding also doesn't help.

[nobbygnome] 02/10/2019 17:44

To be avoided until they come clean on the surgical problem. This sort of issue could kill the whole approach. I have seen it many times before...

[king1pin2] 02/10/2019 17:38

Sizematters Two things, I imagine that the NHS is not at the top of the list when it comes to the sales targets of the companies that will take this treatment to market.
Also I cant think of any drugs or treatments that dont come with warnings that say that you might get a side effect from taking them .
If this was a 100% fix with no downside the value of rene would be Billions .
I was lucky enough to buy into welcome pharma at around 40p when I learned they had AZT for aids so was lucky to still be around when they hit £5 . But after selling watched the price rise to £20 . So your right this is not a sure thing but if it works big money can be made.

[supernumerary] 02/10/2019 17:38

Just got in - looks shocking, but basically all the trading shares bought over the last couple of weeks have been sold again and the price has returned to where it was. Easy come, easy go ;¬)

'the NHS and suchlike would never pay for such a treatment based on those results/blindness risk during process % seen today!'

That's a strawman of course - the NHS would never be asked to approve such a treatment on the basis of 22 patients. There's a phase 3 still to come.

Meanwhile as far as I can see 20 patients out of the 22 have seen significant benefit, which has persisted. Probably best to ignore the 9 months figures at the moment, as only 1 patient involved, but on the whole, they still look pretty good to me.

Pity about the sight loss - it will be interesting to hear what the investigators have to say in their presentation on the 12th. At the moment we don't know what caused it (in what has always been described as a relatively routine procedure), nor whether it's permanent or temporary, nor whether it's total or partial, nor whether the procedure can be improved to eliminate the problem. Much more information to come I think.

Finally, probably worth reminding a few people that Fosun, which is a major pharma, has already partnered with RENE, and did so on the back of just 3 patients. I imagine they're very pleased with their investment.

[s1zematters] 02/10/2019 17:22

Agreed
However not certain, hence my basic logic and reason that the shares will now reflect the uncertainty before further validating results in the future.

aimho

[bonzo] 02/10/2019 17:21

Success will depend on being able to modify the surgical procedure to avoid the problem, or identify at risk patients to avoid treating them. Both of these are possible.

[s1zematters] 02/10/2019 17:12

Small crow, i believe you are missing my point, so I'll put in common parlance.
It's very possible someone who is going blind would want the risk reward of that treatment; however the NHS and suchlike would never pay for such a treatment based on those results/blindness risk during process % seen today!
so the point the patient would have the operation is moot, it would never be offered and never get The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence approval in the first place.
all imho.

[ken chung] 02/10/2019 16:51

50p soon.Lemmings and mushrooms only.

[ken chung] 02/10/2019 16:50

A fine drop.Lemmings and mushrooms only.

[hashertu] 02/10/2019 16:50

king1pin2.

I agree. If I knew that if I did nothing, it was near certain that I would lose my sight, or, there was an operation that had 90% chance of some success, I know which option I would chose.
I suspect the probability of surgical success will improve with time/experience.
I suspect also that the RNS was the minimum the company could release to comply with listing requirements, whilst still retaining the detail for the presentations on the 10/12th.

[small crow] 02/10/2019 16:49

sizematters, ".. Potential large variance in results exist ..". Potentially maybe but, in reality, there is no way of calculating the variance from the figures presented. We can all see there is some variation, there always will be, but that's not the same thing. And surely, if you are going blind anyway (with timescale unknowable) you would take a 90% chance of success in one eye (like all opthalmic ops they would do only one eye at a time) so you would still have a second go ..... and the chance of an surgical problem in BOTH eyes (we can work it out assuming the current stats don't change, although they are bound to get better) would be around 1%. I'd take those odds.

[eggy6198] 02/10/2019 16:48

60 million mcap is where success is already factored in? haha haha haha haha ... this will sell for more than one billion if its successful

great day for your short well done.... dont get too greedy now

[s1zematters] 02/10/2019 16:40

The problem is though, unless the results are of a nature where they are reliable and predictable, who would offer the treatment in the first place? (note1)
Rene have to actually sell this as a treatment for partial blindness not as a lucky dip?
Everything is not lost yet, and for the furthering of those afflicted by this illness, i hope they can do that and make a difference to lives.

My point is on financials alone. I believe that those results cast doubt on the above and so the market cap of the company has already reached a level where success was almost written in and will now ease off to reflect the uncertainty.

aimho.,


Note 1.
26 April 2019

One subject + 20 letters (2 months). (no report of subject losing sight)


02/10/2019

mean of 6 subjects +13 letters (2 months). (excluding two subjects who lost their sight)

[king1pin2] 02/10/2019 16:21

Lets be honest The thing to remember is that If you do nothing then blindness will follow soon . So to be given a chance to halt and improve your sight is worth going for.
Every operation that you have carries a risk and most accept that because if they dont things will deteriorate.
I always remember my dear mum having a go at the doctor for telling her that the operation that she was needing had a 10% chance of failure.
She maintained that he should have told her It had a 90% chance of success.
If you think ANY of our therapies will work and get to market then this share is worth multiples of todays price .

[s1zematters] 02/10/2019 16:10

it pains me to see good men being taken down here on Rene. I am fine With Peggy and Monkey Martin getting annihilated though! ;)

[s1zematters] 02/10/2019 16:06

Peggy, soz if others thoughts hurt you so much, what would you like me to post, your opinion?

btw/ Careful Peggy, cheese eating surrender monkey Martin will be on at you over your spelling..

XXX