Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[nimbo1] 12/6/2020 07:43

That’s great news. Nasdaq listing could be really exciting here for attracting a US shareholder base. Companies with this amount of potential normally attract 1 bil valuations!

[wan] 12/6/2020 07:27

I have been quite busy investigating a number of factors that suggests there is a lot of value (above where we are today) to be realised by Renalytix. Not least, a management that delivers on the commentary!

[74tom] 12/6/2020 07:16

Yes Wan, and now confirmed by RNS - a really critical approval & in conjunction with Wednesdays news completes an excellent week here. This is a truly impressive company, heading for a valuation way in excess of £270m.

[wan] 12/6/2020 07:11

Excellent confirmation today that with the NY approval, Renalytix will now advance to full commercial launch of KidneyIntelX in Q3.

[74tom] 10/6/2020 08:34

Link to the study;



Conclusion;

“In conclusion, a machine learned model combining plasma biomarkers and EHR data *significantly* improved prediction of adverse kidney outcomes over standard clinical models in patients with T2 DKD from two large academic medical centers.”

[74tom] 10/6/2020 07:58

Another significant step along the road... The target population is simply enormous at 12m. A 50% improvement on existing methods + the considerable moat that RENX are building = multi billion dollar potential value.

[toffeeman] 09/6/2020 15:25

Yo LS how ya hangin?

I still have my book "Rockets and Satellites work like this from prize-giving" and Yep Guinness Aim in this as well.

This is the list of holdings - they have top sliced FARN,AVCT,SYNG and GDR and letting the rest run - apart from some real dogs like C4XD, MNO, INX MSYS - it's done pretty well - after those cash ins and before EIS relief it's up 40%

Access Intelligence
Angle
Aortech
Avacta
C4X Discovery
Creo
Creo
Crossword Cyber
Diaceutics
Directa Plus
Evgen
Falanx Group
Faron
Genedrive
Hardide
I-Nexus
Ixico
Maestrano
Maxcyte
Microsaic
Renalytix
Synairgen
The Panoply
Trackwise
Transense

[longshanks] 09/6/2020 12:57

You sound like you were always passed over at school prize giving Tigger.Are Guiness in this one too?

[toffeeman] 09/6/2020 08:40

Awards - nearly as relevant as a recommendation from IC

[74tom] 09/6/2020 08:29

Excellent news - it’s in very good company there :)

[longshanks] 09/6/2020 00:13

Company has been nominated for the company of the year award, FWIWhTTps://smallcapnetwork.co.uk/2020-awards/?mc_cid=3dd40219ae&mc_eid=7e6c89d886

[74tom] 06/6/2020 21:23

Indeed, very interesting few months coming up...

Hopefully we’ll get an update on FractalDX this week as per the below from the 28th April RNS:

“Provisional dates have been obtained for the required Court hearings of the Company's application, but they are subject to change and dependent on the Court's timetable. If the hearings go ahead on the provisional dates, the present timetable provides that the final hearing, at which it is hoped that the Court will make an order confirming the Capital Reduction, will take place on 9 June 2020.

The Capital Reduction does not take effect until the Court's order is filed with and registered by Companies House. The Board intends to file the required documentation with Companies House on the business day following the final Court hearing and, subject to compliance with all procedural requirements, Companies House will usually register the documents on the same day. On the present timetable, which is subject to change and dependent on the Court's timetable, this would mean that the Capital Reduction would take effect on 10 June 2020.”

[scottishfield] 06/6/2020 10:44

Chart points the way.

[74tom] 02/6/2020 11:45

Yes agree it's not the easiest slide to read, but definitely based on 100k patient cohort, the key assumptions are in the below paragraph.

"Of the 100,000 patient cohort in the model tested with KidneyIntelX,
18,000 patients were assumed to be flagged as “high-riskR21; and received
additional medical management and preventive measures.
When slowed progression rate owing to KidneyIntelX was assumed to
be 20% compared to SOC, the NPV of savings due to slowed
progression, delayed/avoided dialysis & transplants, and fewer crashes
was estimated to range between $835 million and $1.297 billion over a
5-year time horizon for the most-stringent and least –stringent
definitions of progression respectively (Figure 1). The estimated savings
realized for the ‘StringentR17; definition of progression or “base case”
were $1.153 billion (Figure 1)"

With potential savings like that, healthcare bosses will be desperate to utilise the software...

[nimbo1] 02/6/2020 11:28

74tom thanks for that - when I looked at that slide I could not work out whether the cost base saving was for 100k individuals or the patient population...or it wasn't 100% clear to me - opportunity even bigger than I thought.

[74tom] 02/6/2020 11:15

Nice one Melody, I've been keeping an eye on GAN too and have been amazed to see it's progress. It was under the radar this time last year, trading at about 60p, now sitting at just under £5! RENX is further under the radar as far as I'm concerned.

The potential is gigantic, the below slide from March provides some idea;



A NPV base case cost saving of $1.15b for 100k patients over 5 years. Bear in mind the target market size is 37m patients just in the US, so this saving represents only 0.27% of the US market...

Extrapolating to 5% US market penetration, the base case saving would be $21b...

Worldwide the target market is around 850m individuals, so the potential value here is astronomical.

This has blue sky potential like very few companies I've come across, backed up by a stellar management / advisory board, science & background factors (increasing obesity etc). Should be a fun journey...

[nimbo1] 02/6/2020 10:48

Melody - good luck. My spreadsheet gives an approx market cap here of £2 bil with change - almost a 10 bagger potential. Quite a rare opportunity therefore but of course assumes everything goes perfectly...

I also believe maxcyte another one worth looking at which gets no hype but is a great company masked as a dog because of the investment its been making over the years into carma - they plan to spin that off onto nasdaq in the next 6-12 months too which could transform the value.

[melody9999] 02/6/2020 09:55

I've joined in here this am. Lots going on. Funded by the gains made on GAN - share price has gone ballistic since NASDAQ listing so fingers crossed for the same here. GLAH

[74tom] 27/5/2020 17:13

No problem at all - agree that low key and high potential is a great combination (Anexo is another I've been adding this week that's in a similar bracket, but far lower potential than here).

The fact that the Mount Sinai antibody test already has FDA EUA approval & they have high volume distribution nailed via Bio-Techne certainly puts the palaver over at Omega Diagnostics in the context.

[longshanks] 27/5/2020 16:45

Thanks for that info 74tom.

RENX is one of those low key stocks that I love. I have been buying a few shares over the last week or so. Think this will do well.

[74tom] 27/5/2020 16:22

As a reminder for anyone who stumbles upon RENX and isn't aware that they own 25% of the equity in the below venture...





"MINNEAPOLIS and NEW YORK, May 19, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Bio-Techne Corporation (NASDAQ:TECH) and the Mount Sinai Health System in New York, through its commercial affiliate Kantaro Biosciences LLC (Kantaro), today announced a partnership to initiate scaled manufacturing and distribution of testing kits based on the Mount Sinai-developed COVID-19 serology test. Kantaro Biosciences is a joint venture between Mount Sinai Health System ("Mount Sinai") and Renalytix AI (LSE: RENX) formed exclusively to ensure that diagnostic tests for critical health challenges are accessible to all. The Mount Sinai COVID-19 serology test was one of the first widely published serology tests in the United States and has gained recognition as a trusted, high-performing assay and comparator for subsequent COVID-19 serology tests. Kantaro has partnered with Bio-Techne to develop a test kit based on the Mount Sinai test and to scale up, manufacture, sell and distribute these kits. Initial kit production capacity is expected to enable laboratories to conduct in excess of 10 million tests monthly in July, scaling to higher capacity in subsequent months. The two companies have formed a joint commercialization and distribution team to support rapid distribution of the assay.

Mount Sinai was issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for clinical testing in its CLIA certified laboratory on April 15th. Based on this success, Bio-Techne and Mount Sinai have partnered to develop high-quality production test kits, based upon the Mount Sinai test, which can be manufactured and distributed globally at scale. Kantaro will lead regulatory processes with the intention of submitting the scaled assay for FDA EUA review in May. Kit shipments are expected to begin immediately following the receipt of FDA regulatory authorization.

The IgG antibody test kit, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay or ELISA, is designed to measure the presence or absence of anti-COVID-19 antibodies in addition to measuring the titer (level) of antibodies a person has produced. It utilizes not one, but two virus antigens, the full-length Spike protein, and its Receptor Binding Domain, which is necessary for viral entry into cells, and is potentially linked with neutralization. The test kit will use a simple patient blood draw and is designed to be easily run by any laboratory in the world without costly proprietary equipment. The technology underlying the diagnostic test was created by internationally recognized virology and pathology teams from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

In a recent comparison of EUA tests published by the FDA (link), which assumed a 5% incidence of COVID-19 in the population, the "Mount Sinai Hospital Clinical Laboratory COVID-19 ELISA Antibody Test" was reported to show a Positive Predictive Value (the probability of disease if the test is positive) of 100% and a Negative Predictive Value (the probability of no disease if the test is negative) of 99.6%. Bio-Techne and Kantaro are in the process of validating the scaled assay and expect the data to confirm similar results.

"Combining Mount Sinai's strengths in disease management, patient monitoring and clinical study design with Bio-Techne's capabilities as a fully integrated, world leading ELISA developer and manufacturer, allows us to co-develop and validate what we believe will be the highest quality and highest utility assay for COVID-19 in the world," commented Dave Eansor, Bio-Techne's Protein Sciences Segment President. "The assay not only identifies individuals with prior exposure to the COVID-19 virus; the two step test is designed to minimize false negative and false positive results while delivering valuable, quantitative information regarding the immunity state of previously infected people."

"We are extremely excited to partner with Kantaro and Mount Sinai to launch what we believe will be a gold standard serology test for COVID-19," said Chuck Kummeth, President and Chief Executive Officer of Bio-Techne. "The Bio-Techne, Mount Sinai and Kantaro teams are working around the clock to develop this test, and we are on track to achieve in approximately eight weeks what would typically take 18 months or more. As the world leader in ELISA assays, Bio-Techne has substantial capacity and the ability to scale production levels to support much of our nation's needs. We look forward to providing the world with critical information related to past exposure to the virus."

"Antibody testing will be critical to providing patients and governments the essential information they need to help the world economies reopen and begin to recover from COVID-19," said Florian Krammer, PhD, Professor of Microbiology at Icahn School of Medicine. "Through Kantaro's partnership with Bio-Techne, we look forward to bringing this extremely high-quality test to every corner of the globe, so that COVID-19 can be monitored and isolated."

The original Mount Sinai assay has been performed on more than 30,000 patient samples. Mount Sinai is studying the use of the technology to measure antibody titer in previously infected individuals, to support vaccine development, and to help evaluate emerging immunotherapies."

[nimbo1] 27/5/2020 12:14

True - either way there is some stock to shift here so it’s going to consolidate or drop a bit baring more news. I’m a buyer again on any falls - shot, medium and long term one of the most promising companies I’ve seen for significant valuation gains.

[74tom] 27/5/2020 11:18

Yes, and that's what the current forecasts from N+1 assume - a product achieving niche success. They highlight this in their January 8th note that raised the target price to £4.20;

"We iterate that these projections barely scratch the surface of the potential market value an effective prognostic risk test could achieve in the estimated 37m US population of CKD patients"

And this was before they became heavily involved with Covid-19 via antibody testing & pred-MAKER...

Consolidation will be news dependant, it's only 15% higher than last December despite all of the positive news, so the price is hardly ahead of itself IMO.