Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 04/8/2020 22:01

Expecting EUA in mid to late August.

[74tom] 04/8/2020 17:19

Yes I definitely expect we'll get one upon release - I think the reason they haven't RNS'd anything since the 19th May is to avoid wild price swings whilst they were finalising the IPO.

N+1 included some rough figures in their May research note that estimated >$50m per annum revenue accruing to RENX assuming 10m kit sales per month priced at a 'conservative' $400 per kit.

The basic maths being 10m kits x 12 = 120m
/ 96 tests a kit = 1,250,000 kits
* $400 per kit = $500,000,000 gross sales($4.16 per test).

Running the figures to allow Bio-Techne to take an arbitrary 30% cut of sales, worth $150m, Kantaro would be left with $350m, meaning RENX would receive $87.5m revenue.

This certainly ties into the commentary from Bio-Techne, as if they see the release of the commerical test as their 'biggest opportunity' then it must be material to them, and they just reported $175m revenue for their fourth quarter alone.

Finally, unlike the more standard PCR antigen tests / antibody tests, the Seroindex test kit does sound as though it has some unique features which may be very difficult to replicate, certainly at the scale they are looking to achieve. So it's entirely possible that they will price the kit's at more than $400 for sale within the USA / Europe. For every $100 increase in reimbursed price per kit, RENX would earn an additional $21.875m of revenue.

Clearly all academic at this stage, but it's always fun to speculate :)

[nimbo1] 04/8/2020 16:58

They Will do - Nasdaq beginning to catch on by looks of things.

We get an rns for research after all! This is commercial important stuff :)

[mr roper] 04/8/2020 16:29

Surely got to merit an rns when it’s released I’d have thought. Sounds like it could be huge

[nimbo1] 04/8/2020 16:17

thanks wan. quick everyone pile in....oh hold that thought - we already have : )

[74tom] 04/8/2020 16:15

If a $10b market cap talks like that then this could be transformational... wow!

[wan] 04/8/2020 16:10

Yes, it is indeed ;-)

[nimbo1] 04/8/2020 16:09

sounds exciting - that our test?! : )

[wan] 04/8/2020 15:36

Excerpt from Bio-Techne Fourth Quarter Results -

04-Aug-2020
Bio-Techne Releases Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2020 Results

Chuck Kummeth, President and Chief Executive Officer of Bio-Techne added, "We quickly pivoted our talented team of scientists to develop products enabling the development of diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines to help eradicate COVID-19. This pivot has led to several innovative new products, but I am most excited about the potential of our biggest opportunity as we prepare to launch the world's first commercial fully quantitative COVID-19 IgG serological assay."

[mr roper] 04/8/2020 14:53

600p being paid now. Would be good to see a break above today

[nimbo1] 04/8/2020 12:50

Toffeeman - you'll get a letter regarding plans soon hopfully - I think the exact phrase in the rns was we'll receive information shortly after the event...so I would expect to hear something in the next month or so.

My verici shares not showing yet - My UK listed renx are with HL

[toffeeman] 04/8/2020 12:38

nothing on Verici

Given the lock up conditions, I don't expect to hear anything for some time.

Be interesting to see how Guinness AIM EIS deal with them!

[newbold120] 04/8/2020 12:37

1 for every 1 renx share

[newbold120] 04/8/2020 12:37

Verici a shares now showing in my stock broking accounts

[2theduke] 04/8/2020 12:31

Hey all / has anyone had any correspondence with regard to their allocation of fractal spin off shares? I’ve not had anything yet albeit not sure on timings and impact of the share agent in the middle

[74tom] 04/8/2020 11:21

I'd imagine some US money will arrive this afternoon if the ask remains at £5.88, certainly the CNBC coverage posted by Wan should spark some additional interest... $15.28 could book a very simple 5% arbitrage gain, well worth it if you have the facilities & deep pockets.

[nimbo1] 04/8/2020 10:14

are the mm's here going to wait and see if nasdaq holds the price before shifting on up here? a bit bizarre having a 5% plus difference in bid price.

[mr roper] 04/8/2020 08:26

Good article that, wan. Word is getting out Stateside

[wan] 04/8/2020 08:21

Good news. I thought we might get an announcement, in one form or another.

The following coverage is thought provoking! -

High odds severe Covid-19 can lead to kidney injury or failure, medical studies reveal
PUBLISHED MON, AUG 3 2020

Now kidney disease is surging, exacerbated by the surge in Covid-19 cases throughout the country.

“The next epidemic will be chronic kidney disease in the U.S. among those who recovered from the coronavirus,” says Dr. Steven Coca, associate professor of nephrology at Mount Sinai Health System and co-founder of RenalytixAI. “Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic we have seen the highest rate of kidney failure in our lifetimes. It’s a long-term health burden for patients, the medical community -- and the U.S. economy.”

Full story -

[nimbo1] 04/8/2020 05:52

ref aim price if you look at trades the mm's are just having a laugh - large trades through 595 end of day. they've been doing it for a while now - just absorbing the sellers and putting through large trades above the ask price. Bodes well decent money accumulating imo only.

[mr roper] 03/8/2020 21:54

$16.10 close.

[nimbo1] 03/8/2020 21:46

Aim will follow Nasdaq - Nasdaq larger market, larger investors in the home of the business. May take time but as news flow arrives Nasdaq will dictate price action imo. No American investor bothers checking the aim price imo!

Price will follow. Renx can always get rid of aim listing as some discussed earlier.

[faz] 03/8/2020 21:21

WEll is this not a buying opportunity? Can't arbitrage but which price is right? We presume Nasdaq is now leading AIM because its a US business but there;s more stock on AIM. And whilst there might be moans about the scant price move today, last August on AIM the price was 250p! It s understandable if some sell at these prices,regardless of prospects or news. Cash may be king for many in a time like this.(not that we've had a time like this!)

[74tom] 03/8/2020 19:55

Yeah equivalent price at the present level of $16.07 is £6.18, the bid needs to rise tomorrow AM & spread needs to close from the ridiculous 5% it's been for the last two weeks. NASDAQ spread is less than 1%...