Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[wan] 01/7/2020 07:33

I note today's announcement and I am considering how disruptive KidneyIntelx will be to the existing standard of care, which is a good thing, and the players within that.

Duke...Fair enough, but it worked OK with regard to EKF creating Renalytix. Other details and any discussions/debates are probably best done on the EKF thread.

[2theduke] 01/7/2020 07:05

Hey wan, thanks for the research notes.
I looked at ekf when deciding how to invest in the renx and AI. Ultimately I chose renx directly as I couldn’t get comfortable with some of elf’s off balance sheet or JV structures where I thought the value was a bit too disconnected from the trading entity.

[wan] 30/6/2020 15:55

Welcome Brucie! None of us gets it right all of the time, but most of the time will suffice ;-)

[brucie5] 30/6/2020 15:31

Come to join you here for a few. Intrigued to see my friend Wan here. He doesn't always get situations right... but he certainly puts in the research... And it's usually worth at least a second look.
;)

[nimbo1] 30/6/2020 10:10

Wan a lot of the shares which received a covid news driven boost have been suffering of late - 2 quality companies which don't deserve it are EKF and Yourgene in my opinion. EKF I've been waiting to buy.

Renx I hope can be a 10 bagger plus over time of course - a decent comparable in my opinion is livongo - a health platform for diabetes management - 170 mil revenues and $7 bil market cap...could be Renx in 3 years I hope : )

[wan] 30/6/2020 09:42

Some may already be aware that EKF Diagnostics gave birth to Renalytix, but I don't believe that Renalytix will be their only child!

EKF's shares are currently suffering some weakness. EKF's Renalytix share holding is currently worth at least 3p per share (more if you factor in the potential FractalDX spinout/valuation and any increase in valuation generally).

[74tom] 30/6/2020 09:29

“RenalytixAI has obtained an exclusive option under which it can license certain intellectual property surrounding the biomarker urinary Epithelial Growth Factor ("uEGF").“

The combination of exclusive biomarker IP (Today’s license adds to that which RENX already in licensed from Joslin), is what makes this particularly exciting.

They have a distinct and growing competitive advantage and the global market is absolutely massive. Could they get to a position where they can monopolise all existing & newly discovered Kidney related biomarkers and in the process build an insurmountable competitive moat?

[2theduke] 30/6/2020 09:04

I've been buying this for a while now and it is hard to not see a $1bn valuation in the very short term following the US listing. Whilst I had initially thought of a £9 a share value, it is hard not to see the higher value given the US tech multiples, this latest widening of target market, the data partnership, the spin-out (which I'm less keen on), the testing approval and the detailed prospectus, but finally, the very large and consistent buying and stake building in chunks.
It is harder to stick to your investment rules when a share sticks its head above the parapet like this, but I'll stay disciplined. This share has stayed nearly 40% above its prior highs in the short term, (where all PI's would have been invested and many would have taken profits).

[donald pond] 30/6/2020 08:56

I've finished buying a stake here. The potential is staggering, lets see how this pans out. GLA.

[74tom] 30/6/2020 07:52

Yes this double whammy of news has many positive implications! Licensing an additional Biomarker and accessing new Biobank / DKD data adds significantly to their competitive position. Broadening the use case is obviously extremely positive.

Comments like the below are very telling, KidneyIntelX is best in class and could become hugely valuable in tackling a global problem.

Prof. Matthias Kretzler, Professor of Computational Medicine & Bioinformatics and Internal Medicine at UM stated : "The primary aim of our research has always been the translation of findings to clinical practice in order to improve patient care and kidney health. The C-PROBE cohort was established with the express aim of enabling this translation to take place. We are very excited to partner with RenalytixAI in this endeavor and firmly believe that KidneyIntelX platform is an ideal vehicle to integrate the results of our work on uEGF with other biomarkers, bioinformatics and clinical research, with the goal of providing new, powerful solutions in managing CKD."

[nimbo1] 30/6/2020 07:38

I wonder if that pharmaceutical company participates in the Nasdaq listing - just a hunch!

[wan] 30/6/2020 07:37

So with today's announcement it's now official, the potential for extending KidneyIntelX into additional patient populations is real, very real!

Also, the data sharing agreement with a leading top ten global pharmaceutical company is clearly good news in itself. And as I was already starting to consider how many tests per year an individual might require, I am particularly interested in how this agreement will demonstrate the value of dynamic, repeated KidneyIntelX measurements.

[nimbo1] 29/6/2020 13:01

Liquidity on both sides - you can sell in volume 515.5 - it’s creeping up

[74tom] 29/6/2020 12:43

Relentless buying again today, number of trades is low as per usual but £50k chunks suggest an II buying at this level - expect another tick up in the near future...

[74tom] 27/6/2020 17:05

Think that figure comes from the first page of the SEC registration statement, in the calculation of registration fee it has ‘proposed maximum aggregate offering price’ $86,250,000. Ties to the figure in the article when converted.

[nimbo1] 27/6/2020 15:03

hxxps://www.businesscloud.co.uk/news/welsh-biotech-to-raise-69m-with-us-listing

Not sure where 69 mil comes from but imagined c. 50 myself so in ball park I guess

[wan] 26/6/2020 07:43

Thanks Nimbo1. The Market Opportunity beyond the initial subset was a point that I was highlighting previously (post 1) as a distinct possibility and presenting for an even larger market opportunity (as perhaps being overlooked). And it is good to get confirmation that the strategy includes extending the KidneyIntelX application into additional populations.

[74tom] 25/6/2020 16:38

Thanks a lot for sharing! So much to read / digest. As expected on FractalDX, but always good to get confirmation.

I've got to say they certainly are earning their salary increases with the current workload that they are juggling - dual listing / global offering / spin off / KidneyIntelX / Kantaro, it's got to be 24/7. Safe to say the newsflow is going to be decent over the next few months.

[nimbo1] 25/6/2020 14:32

Market op $12 bil they state - and that's only US and could be expanded to different patient populations.

Market opportunity
Our goal is to improve quality of life and lower healthcare costs by transforming the paradigm for kidney disease risk assessment and clinical management through our KidneyIntelX platform. We believe the use of KidneyIntelX will drive improved patient outcomes and significantly lower healthcare costs.
According to the CDC, in the United States alone, CKD affects approximately 37 million people and DKD, the most common type of CKD, affects approximately 12.6 million adults. Based on the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS, national price for KidneyIntelX of $950 per reportable test, this represents a potential market opportunity of approximately $12 billion assuming one test per patient. The initial commercial launch version of KidneyIntelX is indicated for a subset of these patients, specifically patients 21 years of age or older with earlier stage DKD (Stages 1 through 3). We believe many patients will benefit from the use of KidneyIntelX for multiple tests throughout the course of treatment to provide ongoing risk assessment, enabling care pathway optimization, escalation of treatment and long-term disease management. Further, published data suggests the population of patients that could benefit from our solutions will continue to grow along with the anticipated increase in the occurrence of type 2 diabetes, a significant risk factor for developing CKD, and obesity, the primary driver of type 2 diabetes. We also intend to extend KidneyIntelX application into additional populations of CKD patients beyond those with diabetes, including patients of African ancestry with the APOL1 high-risk genotype.

[74tom] 25/6/2020 10:55

Yes Nimbo1, I've been watching Puretech and think it's a very interesting (if complicated) business, certainly trading well below where it should be based on fundamentals! The only thing that puts me off at present is the circa 30% holding that Invesco has, as this is a major overhang and only obvious reason for the stagnant share price... But I'll certainly keep an eye on it :)

[nimbo1] 25/6/2020 10:13

74tom as a kindred spirit in this area you should investigate Puretech - market cap covered by cash and its Karuna stake (nasdaq listed) - really should be 50-100% higher price wise with nasdaq listing for some of its subsidiaries and the company itself to come! not a ramp as comments can't move a £770mil market cap - just interesting opportunity!