Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[74tom] 25/6/2020 09:35

If it's anything like the GAN listing then the price won't be nailed down until the last minute, however slightly more complicated here given that it's going to be a global offering. Demand always likely to be high given how illiquid it is, the price would go mad if an II tried to buy 5m on the open market! Positive move forwards, and a changing of the guard for the start of the next phase...

[nimbo1] 25/6/2020 09:20

agreed - price v steady here...assume its the target price of the nasdaq listing price but I have no evidence for that!

[wan] 25/6/2020 07:28

One assumes then that with today's announcement, there is a lot of 'underlying' interest/demand!

[nimbo1] 23/6/2020 16:55

agreed - we need confirmation it works as advertised ref service provided and money earned, then it will be off to the races imo.

I expect nasdaq and fractal dx updates over the next couple of weeks. Alongside Kantaro and any other kidney intel x news.

GL : )

[74tom] 23/6/2020 16:23

Anyone spot the 90,000 shares bought right on close yesterday at £5.20? A cool £468,000 / $585,000...

The more I research other AIM listed pharmas that are in the same bracket market cap wise (£200-£500M), the better RENX looks. Relatively low cash burn in the short term, and relatively near term significant revenues & profitability. So many pharmas are years away from anything, so to have a forecast of £85m rev / £32m PBT for FY 2022 (commences July 2021) is genuinely exciting when viewed in combination with the recent regulatory newsflow & progress. If PBT is £32m for 2021/22 then the market cap will be at least 3 x current levels IMO.

[74tom] 19/6/2020 11:01

Same here, although in fairness you have to really know a business inside out to have the confidence to buy on a drop like that. If I'd held RENX shares since the IPO and been aware of the progress & potential then yes I'd have bought big at £1.70!

Either way I still think the £4-5 zone represents a great entry point given the short, medium & long term potential.

[homebrewruss] 19/6/2020 10:34

Agreed re knowing about this in March :)

One of my takeaways from this year's drop is keeping a wider and more up to date watch list.
I had gone all cash in mid feb and had confidence to take a couple of positions at the March lows. Can't complain but would have been great to have filled my boots completely!

[nimbo1] 19/6/2020 10:04

no worries - I really like this as a long term play because end markets are so massive and as it reduces healthcare costs and adds clarity to patient pathways it could become a really significant company.

There isn't yet any competition that I can find...but according to my spreadsheet renx only need c.4% of the American market to make several times your money here, so I am relaxed about that at the moment.

There is also very solid insider ownership including from Mount Sinai, hardly any PI interest and I haven't read about it in any tip sheets etc.

I invested 10% of my money here at an average of 3.80, and if they keep hitting milestones plan to hold indefinitely as I have not seen such potential upside for a long time (having said that I do look forward to seeing revenue start to prove the whole system is working!) - I just wish I read about it in march during the crash as opposed to in the recovery stage.

[homebrewruss] 19/6/2020 09:54

nimbo, thanks for mentioning this on the SHA thread, I took a position after your most recent mention.

re NASDAQ listing timeframe, GAN would be a good benchmark.

[nimbo1] 19/6/2020 09:16

they applied for nasdaq listing on May 18th.

From google 'how long does it take to process nasdaq listing?'

4-6 weeks
It generally takes 4-6 weeks to process a listing application. This time frame is variable and may be shortened considerably, if the application raises no issues and the company responds to staff comments. Week 1. Company submits application for listing and NASDAQ listing Qualifications staff begins its review.

So I reckon we'll hear c. end of June assuming their operations are as normal.

[74tom] 18/6/2020 15:39

Yep, if they are the first to gain FDA EUA for this type of test then they will benefit from a significant first mover advantage - especially with the Bio-Techne distribution lined up. Hopefully we'll get an update on either FractalDX or NASDAQ listing soon to keep the ball rolling on those...

[nimbo1] 18/6/2020 11:38

Thanks for the information - I'm looking forward to more colour from the company ref what this relationship means for them financially...they probably don't know completely yet.

[wan] 18/6/2020 10:34

My interpretation (bearing in mind I am no expert) is that the test, if approved, will have a larger addressable market e.g. diagnostics (qualitative) and to support vaccine development, and to help evaluate emerging immunotherapies (quantitative).

What I am now not quite sure about (given the separate EUA's), is whether there will be just the one test or two separate tests.

[74tom] 18/6/2020 10:01

Great update - It would be the first FDA approved quantitative antibody test...and the worldwide distribution capabilities of Bio-Techne would make it a game changer with global reach...

[wan] 18/6/2020 08:21

Update re Kantaros' serologic test for COVID-19 -

New York, NY (June 17, 2020) Mount Sinai Health System has submitted a request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for issuance of an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for quantitative use of its serologic test. If authorized for quantitative use, the assay could be used to provide a numeric result for the concentration of neutralizing anti-COVID-19 antibodies in plasma.

In April 2020, Mount Sinai Laboratory Center for Clinical Laboratories received FDA EUA for qualitative use of the assay, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay or ELISA, that has now been tested on over 40,000 patients and has been a critical component of the hospital’s convalescent plasma program for emergency therapy, and testing of healthcare workers as well as the public. In a comparison of EUA tests published by the FDA (link), the EUA-authorized qualitative test had a PPV of 100%, and an NPV of 99.6%.

Since then, Mount Sinai’s internationally recognized team of virologists and pathologists, including Florian Krammer, PhD, Professor of Microbiology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Carlos Cordon-Cardo, MD, PhD, Irene Heinz Given and John LaPorte Given Professor and Chair of Pathology, Molecular and Cell-Based Medicine at Mount Sinai, and Adolfo Firpo-Betancourt, MD, Professor of Pathology, Molecular and Cell Based Medicine at Mount Sinai, have been working intensely to provide new findings and data to support what they hope will be FDA authorized quantitative use of the assay. The serological assay developed by Dr. Krammer and colleagues for the screening and identification of individuals that have seroconverted was described in a paper published in Nature Medicine on May 12, 2020.

Mount Sinai is hopeful that the FDA will be reviewing this request in the next few weeks. If FDA EUA is issued, Kantaro Biosciences, a Mount Sinai diagnostics venture, will also apply for FDA EUA for a commercial kit based on the Mount Sinai assay. If Kantaro’s EUA is issued, Kantaro and Bio-Techne, a leading life science tools and clinical diagnostics company, expect to provide interested laboratories access to these kits in July.

Full release -

[74tom] 17/6/2020 12:54

Full quote below, there was always a lot to do...but no indication they aren’t on track

"We are extremely excited to partner with Kantaro and Mount Sinai to launch what we believe will be a gold standard serology test for COVID-19," said Chuck Kummeth, President and Chief Executive Officer of Bio-Techne. "The Bio-Techne, Mount Sinai and Kantaro teams are working around the clock to develop this test, and we are on track to achieve in approximately eight weeks what would typically take 18 months or more. As the world leader in ELISA assays, Bio-Techne has substantial capacity and the ability to scale production levels to support much of our nation's needs. We look forward to providing the world with critical information related to past exposure to the virus."

[wan] 17/6/2020 11:59

74tom...Thanks.

To be clear, Mount Sinai was issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the FDA for clinical testing in its CLIA certified laboratory on April 15th. Kantaro plans to seek EUA for the test kit, based on the Mount Sinai test and following final validation based on the scaled up version.

Kantaro were leading regulatory processes with the intention of submitting the scaled assay for FDA EUA review in May. So, we still need obtain FDA EUA and there was quite a lot to achieve, in terms of final development and scale-up, to stay on the indicated schedule.

[74tom] 17/6/2020 11:31

To add to the above;

- It's already received FDA EUA approval and has been used in more than 30,000 tests

- RENX CEO James McCullough's former company Exosome Diagnostics were acquired by Bio-techne in mid 2018, so there is a personal connection at play here by the looks of things.

- The potential for global reach is real, but access to the US market is pretty much guaranteed, and that is something most companies would love to have

You have to wonder what else will emerge from the RENX, Mount Sinai & Joslin Diabetes Centre partnerships in the future...

[wan] 17/6/2020 11:03

I believe there are suite of important aspects that appear to set the Kantaro COVID-19 serology test apart.

ELISA
The ‘gold standard’ laboratory technique for serological testing, is called ELISA.

The Kantaro test kit, is an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) based on the Mount Sinai-developed COVID-19 serology test.

As the world leader in ELISA assays, Kantaro's partner, Bio-Techne, has all the necessary credentials - Bio-Techne is a fully integrated, world leading ELISA developer and manufacturer.

Accuracy -
Mount Sinai Hospital Clinical Laboratory COVID-19 ELISA Antibody Test" was reported to show a Positive Predictive Value (the probability of disease if the test is positive) of 100% and a Negative Predictive Value (the probability of no disease if the test is negative) of 99.6%. Bio-Techne and Kantaro are in the process of validating the scaled assay and expect the data to confirm similar results.

Availability
As the world leader in ELISA assays, Bio-Techne has substantial capacity and the ability to scale production on a global scale.

Ease of use
A test that any medical professional can perform, hopefully, with the equipment they already own or can purchase easily, without long-term contracts and other encumbrances.

In this regard, the Kantaro test kit will use a simple patient blood draw and is designed to be easily run by any laboratory in the world without costly proprietary equipment. The technology underlying the diagnostic test was created by internationally recognized virology and pathology teams from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

[74tom] 17/6/2020 09:06

Nice work as always. Yes I've been keeping an eye on the Kantoro site, I noticed last week that the availability line was changed from 'will be available soon' to 'planned for July 2020', so all appears on track...

[wan] 17/6/2020 08:35

Seeing as we are fast approaching the planned availability of commercial COVID-19 test kits for clinical laboratories, which is scheduled for July 2020. I have updated the header regarding the Mount Sinai and Renalytix AI, Inc joint venture, Kantaro Biosciences. And also included a link to Kantaro's website, which is worth visiting -

[nimbo1] 16/6/2020 19:26

It’s nice to see some decent volume

[74tom] 16/6/2020 16:48

Didn't quite make it all the way back - closing bid / ask was 5.09 - 5.15

Strong after yesterday's jump, and pretty decent volume versus average totalling about £700k.

Onwards and upwards!

[nimbo1] 16/6/2020 10:57

you could be right - bought a few more but they'd rather take sells than buys here

[74tom] 16/6/2020 10:50

Any consolidating will be offset by new buyers in my opinion - particularly in the US. My betting is the drop we’ve seen this morning reverses from 2pm onwards - currently I think the market markers are collecting shares to fill big delayed buys from yesterday afternoon. Nothing larger than 2.5k was declared post 4pm yet the price rose over 10%

Anyway, all water under the bridge. Agree on the 3-5 year hold - just look at the growth of CareDX over the last 2 years...