Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[nimbo1] 16/6/2020 10:06

yes it all seems very promising. I have a 3.8 average and plan to hold for 3-5 years assuming everything goes as planned. Balancing that though we are waiting for first revenues etc and of course price will need to consolidate a bit!

[74tom] 16/6/2020 08:19

Agree Nimbo, timing the Nasdaq IPO with their first revenues was clearly the plan, and that will whet the appetite of many US investors I’d imagine, especially those aware of the macro factors.

They’ve created a perfect storm as far as share price appreciation is concerned;

- Existing holders have the FractalDX dividend in specie to look forward to, why would you sell when you’ll get a substantial number of free shares?

- Nasdaq IPO - another exciting near term event, as we have seen with GAN this can result in a large value uplift in cases where a quality company has been relatively under the radar due to AIM liquidity.

- Covid-19 involvement via Kantaro JV, this also has significant potential given the Antibody test has already received FDA EUA & has the second most accurate sensitivity / specificity of any test I’ve seen. What’s more the worldwide distribution via Bio-Techne is nailed down, so a July launch is very much on track. Expect to hear confirmation of this in the next week.

Then we have the seamless underlying progress of KidneyIntelX™ described so well by Wan.

Quite simply, if you sold here where else can you replicate this unique set of circumstances?

[nimbo1] 15/6/2020 22:17

My own expectations (potential £2bil + market cap in 3 years). After the recent move its a £300 mil market cap. I think over the next few months we'll see the true extent of potential - if this really is a huge improvement vs previous healthcare pathways for kidney disease I'd expect this company to be worth $1 bil+ soon after listing on nasdaq, perhaps in 6 months time. They'll be more deals with healthcare providers and insurers etc. Not to mention fda approval and eventually full Medicare coverage.

[faz] 15/6/2020 16:50

Wan thanks. And, to put the stats another way, the US is one unhealthy country.

[longshanks] 15/6/2020 16:41

Thanks for the new thread Wan.

[spittingbarrel] 15/6/2020 16:32

Thanks 74tom, I used AJ Bell instead. Nice move today.

[74tom] 15/6/2020 16:22

Yep, it's all to do with a restriction on US citizens buying shares which was in fact lifted on 5th May :

Barclays had a block on buying it until a couple of week ago, no such issues with HL. Try a different broker if you can, as clearly II haven't been bothered to lift the restriction yet...

[spittingbarrel] 15/6/2020 16:15

I already hold some of these with iDealing and A.J.Bell, and just tried to buy some with Interactive Brokers, but I got the message "Transactions in this instrument are limited to closing only trades".

Anyone know why that would be?

[2theduke] 15/6/2020 12:04

Wan - thank you.

[wan] 15/6/2020 09:51

I have created a new Renalytix thread (the Stigologist beat me to it originally). The new thread better reflects that things have moved significantly beyond the admission onto AIM. So I hope that everyone will approve -

Renalytix - AI Solutions Transforming The Management Of Kidney Disease

[wan] 15/6/2020 09:50

I don't want readers to get ahead of themselves, especially with regard assuming the full medicare price and the full utilisation of the testing capacity, but there appears to be an assumption that the target market is limited in the US to 12 million Americans with Diabetic Kidney Disease.

However, there are circa 40m people in the US with chronic kidney disease (CKD) – 12 million of these people will have Type 2 diabetes and their CKD has occurred as a result of the diabetes.

So, in my opinion, it's also worth considering the significant efforts underway in the US (and elsewhere) to revolutionise identifying kidney disease early among high-risk patient populations and to better manage and thus reduce the national rate of kidney failure. e.g. In the United States, 30 million individuals have diabetes, 84 million adults have prediabetes (are at high risk for type 2 diabetes), and 75 million adults have high blood pressure.

Put another way, Renalytix solutions could be used for much wider testing beyond those 'already diagnosed' with CKD to find those who have yet to be diagnosed with CKD. Earlier intervention and diagnoses would reduce complications and enable better management which would further reduce the national rate of kidney failure and increase the savings to the estimated $114 billion annual cost of chronic and end-stage kidney disease to the United States healthcare system.

Clearly the market is (unfortunately) very large in the US, which I believe will be the proving ground for Renalytix as the market potential beyond the US is also very large indeed. For example in Europe, approximately 59 million people currently live with diabetes, which is set to rise to 67 million by 2045. If left untreated, patients are at greater risk of developing serious health complications, such as renal disease and cardiovascular disease, which are the two most common causes of death for Type 2 Diabetes patients. It is estimated that more than 40% of people with type 2 diabetes will develop CKD, and nearly a third will develop CVD.

In any regard, if you do the maths based on the 40 million with CKD in the US, even a relatively small percentage of market penetration and a price per test ranging from $750 - $950 (my indicative range) equates to several billions in revenue. And as the data and evidence builds and the reduction in cost to the US healthcare system begins to be realised, it should make Renalytix solutions a compelling choice!

[74tom] 13/6/2020 13:35

Many thanks for that post Wan, I’d been looking for a Nasdaq benchmark but hasn’t spotted CareDX. That is a very impressive raise, and as you say bodes very well indeed for the VericiDX spin off.

My thoughts are that they’ll look to IPO around the same market cap as RENX did, so £60-70m. Where is goes from there will be very interesting indeed...

[wan] 13/6/2020 12:02

Edit...CareDX link added to above post.

[nimbo1] 13/6/2020 11:39

Yes good spot I had it right first time and changed market cap to price while tired this am!

[ltinvestor] 13/6/2020 10:53

Firstly, I apologise for the o/t but as you guys are interested in AI , as I am , then you may wish to take a look at a company which is very much under the radar at the moment.I am not suggesting for one moment that you invest but when the rto takes place the situation will become very interesting.I am not ramping the stock hence no name but can be contacted through private messaging.

[74tom] 13/6/2020 10:05

Hi Nimbo, agree with your simple valuation based on what we know at present. Just noticed on current upside you’ve done 1.44 / 0.48 when it should be 0.28, so 5 x upside from current level rather than 3!

I’d like to see them raise between £50-100m in the Nasdaq IPO to accelerate the US scale up & commence international operations, as a 50% improvement in early prediction rate will make a huge difference to global health expenditure with CKD affecting around 1 in 10 people.



Provides some basic facts on geographical prevalence;

“CKD prevalence worldwide varies from 7% in South Asia and 8% in Africa to as high as 11% in North America and 12% in Europe, The Middle East, and East Asia, and Latin America. (p39)”

“The global silent epidemic of CKD can only grow, since risk factors such as obesity, diabetes, smoking and high blood pressure continue to grow in many regions (p29- 39)“

Easy to imagine annual revenues in the high hundred millions or even billions in a few years time if we can successfully launch and scale in the highest prevalence areas North America, Europe, Middle East & East Asia.

The cost benefit analysis seems compelling, and as they get more data their prediction ability should improve further (they state this in the admission doc).

FractalDX is also very interesting in the above context, and you’d have to think the chances of Mount Sinai / Joslin wanting to commercialise more Kidney related IP in the future is quite high.

Safe to say I’m pretty positive about the investment case here!

[nimbo1] 12/6/2020 19:44

My valuation is simple but as follows and of course assumes things go well (40% margins taken from broker note).

In 12 months testing capacity already established by renx is fully utilised: (In practice I don't know how long scale up will take but assume they created capacity and expect to fill it within the not too distant future).

15,000 tests per month x 12 = 180,000 tests per annum
Revenue = $950 per test + $100 admin fee = $189,000,000 per annum

Brokers estimate PBT margin will be 40 %.
0.4* 189,000,000 = $75,600,000 PBT. Tax @20% = PAT $60,480,000 * 30 = $1.8 billion (£1.44b) market cap.


1.44/ 0.48 = 3x upside if existing testing capacity is fully utilised. In practice PE likely above 50 for growth story and it includes includes nothing for Kantaro JV (covid testing - don't know how repeatable this revenue will be) the Fractual DX spin out or Nasdaq listing. And this is so far for US only...and they might need another lab if all 12 million potential patients fall under the testing regime...

Looking forward to seeing how it all comes together and hope to at least double my money from here over 12 months.

[homebrewruss] 12/6/2020 15:50

RENX on the shortlist for technology in the European Mediscience Awards 2020:

[longshanks] 12/6/2020 12:06

I think this should have at least one more zero in the valuation.

[74tom] 12/6/2020 11:55

@Longshanks, it's amazingly under the radar, but the trend is most definitely up and we are in blue sky territory, so it's all good as far as I'm concerned!

They're going for a full listing on the Nasdaq as per the 18th May RNS, it will be a dual listing structure so the AIM listing will continue.

Regarding a valuation properly reflecting potential, given the market size & their competitive advantages, in my opinion this could be several billion dollars very quickly.

As I stated a few weeks back, N+1 Singer highlighted this in their 8th Jan research note with a target price of £4.20;

"We iterate that these projections barely scratch the surface of the potential market value an effective prognostic risk test could achieve in the estimated 37m US population of CKD patients."

What are your thoughts on valuation potential?

[longshanks] 12/6/2020 11:33

Really surprised at how muted the response is to this.Are they planning to list on the Nasdaq capital market or just as OTC.If the latter, then I doubt this will bring in many more investors. If the former, then we should see a surge in liquidity and a valuation properly reflecting potential.

[wan] 12/6/2020 08:07

74tom...I will indeed share it on here, but I have a number of prior engagements today that requires my full time and attention. So, perhaps over the weekend.