Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[donald pond] 24/5/2021 20:00

Lovely break, was strong when US market was weak and has continued on a better day. Bodes well. I saw Roger Lawson mentioned RENX in a write up on his blog about the EKF AGM. His takeaway was "no revenues yet so I'm not interested". Can't help wondering what the market response will be if revenues jump straight into the hundreds of millions as has been suggested. Given the margins this could go from no revenues to the most profitable company on AIM in no time

[mr roper] 24/5/2021 18:53

Great break on very good volume. Suspect this leg takes us close to $40. Suspect we could exit the year closer to double that though.

[someuwin] 24/5/2021 16:07

NASDAQ:RNLX

[mr roper] 24/5/2021 15:51

New 52wk high $rnlx @$35

[donald pond] 24/5/2021 14:04

Good comment dna. Simple answer is that it didn't show up on the screen I was using, but that seems to be a problem with the screen parameters...oh well

[homebrewruss] 21/5/2021 15:03

Renalytix just tweeted a link to the Beckers healthcare event today where both RENX and VRCI are talking at 1pm CT which I think is 7pm UK time.


I think you can sign up by clicking the RSVP link at the top of the page if you've nothing else to do tonight :)

[dnavan] 21/5/2021 14:17

Why not NAS? Similar holdings. Even larger discount and more liquid.

[nimbo1] 21/5/2021 14:12

Its a predetermined sale... i.e. set out way in advance of it happening and carried out by brokers in accordance with the plan. Could be at set times or prices. All executives have them in America

[donald pond] 21/5/2021 12:10

I've been buying OIG recently, EKF and RENX are biggest holdings there and it's at a whopping discount

[toffeeman] 21/5/2021 09:23

It was a small part of his considerable holding - can't see owt wring with that.

[wan] 21/5/2021 08:31

I note the CEO sold a small percentage of his holding, which was into strength and a rising share price across two days, when clearly there was notable demand for stock (in the US where the shares were sold the shares finished up at $32.57 equivalent to £11.48 per share).

I further note that such selling is strictly limited to specific times much like UK rules -
Rule 10b5-1 plans permit directors, officers and other company insiders to adopt, at times when they are not in possession of material, non-public information, or inside information, written plans for trading securities in a non-discretionary, pre-scheduled manner in the future.

I am not phased by the sale, nor the alignment with the rule above in terms of not being in possession of non-public information etc, as Renalytix has guided the market to expect further partnerships. From the Half-Year Report -

We expect to announce additional partnerships during the current fiscal year ending June 30, 2021. We expect to announce five to seven partnerships before the end of calendar 2021. We believe these additional partnerships could materially increase patient and physician access to KidneyIntelX throughout the course of calendar 2021 in advance of broader insurance coverage.

[mr roper] 20/5/2021 18:51

If we take the Govt contract they signed recently collection and delivery are executed by secure mail delivery with a 7 business day turnaround.

Take the numbers earlier of 70000 tests pa =$66m pa revenue
50 weeks
Tests per week 1400 (5 days)
Per day 280

And that’s only one site. I’m not seeing much in the way of a bottleneck that’s isn’t solved by more lab staff and compute power but might be worth a note to IR.
Edit
Worth noting also as part of yesterday’s partnership, Renx will be co-locating staff in another lab.
“Renalytix will co-locate personnel in Winston-Salem to support the partnership program with Wake Forest School of Medicine at the Innovation Quarter’s iQ Healthtech Labs, which is the core industry partnership hub of the innovation district“

[jsredbird] 20/5/2021 18:12

I think one of the limiting factors will be scaling the collection and testing operations rather than distribution agreements. If I remember correctly, RENX has at least two laboratories (NY and UT). Again, not knowing any details of their expansion plans, one has to consider how many samples can be processed in just those two locations. Since this is an early product, they need to do this correctly and deliver on TAT otherwise the clinical utility will be compromised and bad word of mouth will spread. My hopes is that they are scaling in a methodical way so they can adequately support the huge volumes that investors are betting on.

[mr roper] 20/5/2021 09:11

Agree, mf.

However, as it’s based in the “diabetes belt” of America you’d think there’d be a vested interest in pushing the test hard.

Take 5% of your 1.4m.
70000 * $950= $66.5m

This is conservative based on 1 out of 4 partnerships to date. Add in up to 3 more partnerships and....well..who knows...but add a turbo charge of fda approval and mcit and 70000 tests a year could be 500000 a year.

500000 * $950 = $475,000,000

It gets big pretty quickly.

Hopefully by October, we’ll have a few quarters of mt Sinai being live and two quarters of the govt contract being live so the company’s may be able to provide some conservative forward guidance.

Still think we’re pretty much on the ground floor here and with the managements delivery so far this year I’d argue we’re better value now than we were at 250p.

[donald pond] 20/5/2021 08:23

Agree with that though the missing factoid is how many patients will use the test. So the deal yesterday covered 7m patients and around 20% are at risk of diabetes I think. That's 1.4m. Will they all get tested annually? Or will it be 1%, 10% etc? Presumably if doctors and insurers start using the test and see that it materially reduces treatment costs and improves outcomes, and the more you use it the better...With dialysis costing $44k a year, that $950 test looks very cheap.

[mr roper] 20/5/2021 08:00

Thoroughly impressed with the management execution of the plan to date.
I’m starting to notice a bit more of a following on US social media now. Hopefully this helps move the share price in to the next leg of growth.

The company have guided on 5-7 partnerships this calendar year. With 4 in the bag by mid May it’s not unrealistic to assume we may hit the top end of those partnerships.

Partnerships announced this year
1) Da Vita - Fortune 500 company, $12bn mkt cap covering 200,000+ patients with kidney disease.
2) University of Utah - access to 1700+ clinicians and 1m + patients in 6 States
3) US Govt - 140 Govt departments with potential patient coverage 1m+
4) Atrium Health -37 hospitals and more than 1,350 care locations across the Carolinas and Georgia. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Atrium Health serves more than 7 million people in the region,

Next quarterly report is due in a couple of weeks, hopefully this will start to show incremental revenue growth as a Mt Sinai started revenue generation in Q1.

Quality mgmt, and quality execution to date

[wan] 20/5/2021 07:51

Edit/tweak to above post - in what is regarded as America's 'diabetes belt'

[wan] 20/5/2021 07:21

Clearly, for partnerships like the one announced yesterday in what is regarded as America's 'diabetes belt', not to mention the recent 10-year Governmentwide Acquisition Contract to provide KidneyIntelX early-stage kidney disease bioprognostic™ testing services, effectively demonstrates KidneyIntelX is deemed capable of making a significant difference in addressing a very large unmet need.

In my opinion, the fact Renalytix are guiding investors to expect further partnerships, further demonstrates this ahead of such contract confirmations/announcements.

[mr roper] 19/5/2021 15:09

Atrium Health look like a decent size player. Not for profit org, 70000 employees and $10bn revenue last year. Renx look to be aiming at the biggest players in the most high risk market. Seems a sensible approach.

Think the UK mkt again lacks understanding of the size of the US opportunity here.
$rnlx currently +6% on this news. UK waiting to be led out the kennel for a walk.

[jsredbird] 19/5/2021 13:20

Until FDA approval is granted, the test can be sold as an LDT. CMS has already set the price at $950 and that will be the minimum that private payers ejudicate.

[mr roper] 19/5/2021 10:32

Toffee, don’t think these can be shared with Vrci. Vrci is a separate entity and would require its own agreement.

Mf, approvals for what? Do you mean fda? My view is that’s not required.
Next step should be to implement KidneyIntelX in the customer infrastructure and rollout to end users.

[donald pond] 19/5/2021 09:35

Sorry for the numpty question but when does this become revenue? Do we need approvals first?

[toffeeman] 19/5/2021 09:29

So RENX is going to be getting large numbers of patient samples - can they share these with VRCI?

If so could be very big for VRCI!!!