Redrow Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 09/5/2022 08:28

Financials now stand on an edge of sorts

Builders need to provide piles of supports

All UK ones are now showing weak foundations

buywell expects that to spread to many nations

[buywell3] 23/3/2022 09:03

Housebuilders nearly all dropping today as many other sectors rise

IMO fight this at your peril

Rising rates are coming --- again and again and again

The market is starting to price this in but imo are playing catchup with inflation heading to 8% plus and still rising

[purplepelmets] 21/3/2022 03:44

interim was 24th Feb (10p). Final will be some time in late September

[buywell3] 20/3/2022 22:49

Heads Up

To show no bias

What happens in America and what is happening in America will result in what happens in the UK --- if you do your research you will corroborate this fact


The number of USA houses that were for sale has just risen by over 13% in feb year on year

ie Supply is now accelerating as the wise yanks want to cash in their brick piles

USA house/condo sales have dropped year on year for the last consecutive 7 months in a row

ie Demand is weakening

Ref New Builds or Houses under construction in the USA --- unsold numbers are now at 2008 levels and up 70% year on year --- this coupled with massive increased costs due to raw building materials causing stalls in many new build projects

Many USA builders could go bust if these remain unsold

Supply of new builds grows as existing sales of old/ used houses stalls

Inflation in the USA is now at 40 year highs

The FED plans to do another 6 rate rises in 2022

The 30yr fixed mortgage rate stands at circa 4.4% now and is thus on track to hit 6% by the end of this year

Inflation is not going away and the FED wants it at 2% --- next month it will likely hit 9% and still rising



The USA property market is now in top end bubble territory and soon to pop

The UK property market follows the USA with a lag of 12 months

dyor

[rdotcom] 22/2/2022 13:32

When is ex-div date?

[shaker44] 17/2/2022 17:31

So short the sector sikh if that's how you feel.

[sikhthetech] 17/2/2022 16:10

Avg house prices.

Rightmove £341,019 - Jan 2022



Halifax £276,759 - Jan 2022.



TW £332k - for end 2021.
Average selling prices on private completions increased by 3% to GBP332k (2020: GBP323k), with the overall average selling price increasing to GBP300k (2020: GBP288k).

PSM £330,000 - for end 2021.

RDW £417,000 - for end 2021.


When house prices crash, the asking price sees the biggest falls, as buyers ask for bigger discounts.

New Builds normally command a significant premium(can be 25-30%) over similar existing builds. That premium difference would reduce when house prices fall, so they too should see a bigger fall than the avg existing build.


House prices do not fall at the same rate across the country.

When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.


Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/2/2022 09:24

Spot of director/manager buying - reasonable sums.

Although I bet they wish they had waited until this morning instead of buying at 636-odd for most of them...

[essentialinvestor] 11/2/2022 16:01

Filter, much easier.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/2/2022 15:59

I'll take that as a 'no' then.



Current year (to 6 Feb 2022) info on slides 19 and 20 - all good.


Edit - re filter (not doing him the satisfaction of a separate post): I've done that before, but it just allows him to get away with porkies, twisted interpretations and false claims. The least bad answer is surely him just leaving us alone and plying his trade on the housing market thread, which seems to me a sensible option for all - an engaged and sympathetic audience for him, and the specifics of the RDW company for the rest of us. He could always say something about that himself - but never does.

[sikhthetech] 11/2/2022 15:54

Regardless of results, no HB is immune to housing market/prices and, if listed, stockmarket movements, up or down.

Look at the HBs and compare the graphs - they all move broadly in synch, up or down, regardless of results, divis etc..

Govn support during the pandemic helped housing market... That govn support has ended.



UK house prices reach new record but cost of living crisis threatens growth.


Bank of England’s interest rate rise and soaring household costs will hit affordability, says Halifax

"However, house price growth slowed to just 0.3% in January, the smallest monthly increase since June last year, in a sign that the pandemic-fuelled boom could be fading.

“While the limited supply of new housing stock to the market will continue to provide some support to house prices, it remains likely that the rate of house price growth will slow considerably over the next year,” said Russell Galley, a managing director at Halifax.

[craftyale] 11/2/2022 15:05

Thanks for posting that. The main TW. thread has descended into a boys club of ego and opinion. All a bit sad for an anonymous BB. I purchased a little more of RDW today, happy about the figures and looming dividend.

[sikhthetech] 11/2/2022 14:40

Results are the past. Markets look to the future.
All HBs are suffering from the same.

I think affordability is a big concern...

Mortgage repossessions were legally stopped during the pandemic but court cases have restarted... there were around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt. Any interest rate rise on top of tax/council tax/energy price rises would impact affordability..

[aimingupward2] 11/2/2022 13:04

Jefferies target 806p.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/2/2022 08:30

I was a little surprised by the pullback - sectoral, I think. Having combed through those half year numbers, this is by some distance the safest and most undervalued in the sector - just got back in for some.

[roguetraderuk] 10/2/2022 08:11

decent play in sector. well run good numbers. eventually gets taken out. core position.

[robertball] 10/2/2022 08:04

More like up. Guidance up

[robertball] 05/2/2022 12:45

Mortgage rates rising?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 02/2/2022 14:45

I don't think you can be too wrong with these fundamentals - cash and asset rich, earnings multiple around 7 (less under 700) and the recent trading statement. And frankly you can always add more.

Re the land bank, it will be in their financials - numbers, annual sales, resulting number of years in the bank etc: