Redrow Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 18/9/2014 14:49

August mortgage lending hits six-year high

[puzzler2] 16/9/2014 10:18

Sold today - chart has rolled over and I'm reckoning that this housing market could be ready for a turn soon.

[adamb1978] 13/9/2014 20:51

Hodwy
I'm looking at both CRST and RDW at the moment and trying to decide between the two. Can anyone on here tell me why I should invest in RDW rather thna CRST? CRST is slightly cheaper, better yield,....I could perhaps add one to my SIPP and one to the ISA, though that seems like a cop out from making a decision!
Any thoughts appreciated.
Adam

[cockneyrebel] 12/9/2014 09:39

Keeps bouncing off this short term support

CR

[manics] 11/9/2014 16:25

What should we be looking out for on the chart please, SJC?

[cestnous] 08/9/2014 13:44

I.C. article from last Friday;

Redrow builds momentum
As Redrow (RDW) gears up to celebrate its 40th birthday in November, founder and chairman Steve Morgan said he was “delightedR21; to announce a record set of results. A 27 per cent increase in the number of houses sold to 3,597, combined with a 13 per cent rise in average selling prices, delivered a huge jump in revenues. Margins also improved significantly, resulting in a near doubling of pre-tax profit.
Redrow’s order book also swelled by 85 per cent to £482m as the number of sales outlets increased from 92 to 103. With 6,092 plots bought last year, the land bank expanded by a fifth to 16,724 plots, representing about £4bn of future revenue. Accordingly, Mr Morgan said he expected to see “significant progress” this year, but that the sales rate would return to more normal levels, following last year’s frenzied growth.
The London division made its first significant contribution to the group, and Redrow’s expansion into the southern counties has continued: after the year-end, the group opened a new office in Exeter. Current trading looks strong, too: private completions, together with the current order book, are running some 40 per cent ahead of last year.
Broker Peel Hunt expects pre-tax profit of £157m this year, giving EPS of 34p.
C Redrow’s pipeline is bursting and the group is delivering sector-beating returns on equity. On 1.5 times net assets and eight times forecast earnings, however, the shares are trading at a 20 per cent discount to peers. We upgrade our view to buy. JB

[fenboy2] 06/9/2014 05:48

Liberum Capital increased their target price on Redrow yesterday from 307p to 341p.

[mechanical trader] 05/9/2014 10:45

Moneyweek 1 Sept 2014

However, the note that followed the data was much more bearish. Robert Gardener of Nationwide thinks that “the outlook for the housing market remains highly uncertain”. He notes the number of falling mortgage approvals and the fact that “new buyer enquiries have moderated somewhat in recent months”.

He also warns that “the prospect of interest rate increases together with subdued wage growth may temper demand in the quarters ahead”.


But the more up-to-date news is grim

Meanwhile, a very different picture is given by property website Hometrack. Its survey suggests that UK-wide prices went up by only 0.1%, while those in London stayed completely flat. This suggests that the capital is starting to fall behind the rest of the UK.

Delving into the data, only 11% of London postcodes saw a rise in prices. This contrasts with nearly 90% earlier in the year. The time spent on the market has also risen – from 2.7 weeks to more than a month. And the percentage of the asking price achieved has dropped from 98.8% to 96.4%.

The director of research at Hometrack argues that there is “clear evidence of a slowdown, particularly in the London market”. What’s more, “important lead indicators in this survey are turning and pointing to a loss of momentum in house price growth”.

That’s pretty bearish. You could argue that this is just one property website against a big lender like Nationwide and the Land Registry. But Hometrack does have one big advantage in terms of timeliness, in that it measures prices when an offer is made and accepted.

This enables it to capture trends at an earlier point than other indices. And it backs up another early indicator – the Rightmove asking prices survey – which also suggests that the market has turned.

I can only speak for a small part of southeast London. But judging from my own efforts to buy a flat at a half-reasonable price, I’d suggest that the reality is closer to what Hometrack (and Rightmove) are observing, rather than the figures from Nationwide and the Land Registry.

Up until about six weeks ago, things were crazy. Prices were rising so quickly that the asking price was seen as a floor, not a ceiling. In some cases, properties were being listed on Friday and being sold come the following Monday.

However, recently owners are more willing to make concessions, estate agents have more time to show people around, and flats are lingering on the market. Meanwhile, the asking price has moved from being a floor back to its more normal place as ceiling.



I’ve also seen a few cases of a property marked as “under offer” suddenly appearing back on the market again at a lower price. This isn’t an isolated phenomenon – according to The Times, 40% of deals in the capital are falling through.

And a recent warning from estate agent Foxtons backs this up. Last week, the company saw its share price left reeling as it warned that “initiatives introduced in 2014 aimed at controlling mortgage lending, together with the expectation of increases in interest rates, are now having an impact on short-term demand among buyers”.

As my fellow Money Morning writer Dominic Frisby noted recently, Foxtons’ share price is something of an indicator as regards the health of the London market.

In short, it feels like we’ve reached a turning point in the housing market. And once that happens, past experience suggests that prices won’t just plateau – they will start to fall. Put it this way – I wouldn’t see the recent drop in the Foxtons share price as a buying opportunity yet.

[manics] 05/9/2014 09:46

05-Sep-14 Liberum Capital Buy 307.00 now 341.00
04-Sep-14 Deutsche Hold 334.00 now 331.00
04-Sep-14 Numis Securities Buy - new 339.00

[manics] 04/9/2014 13:09

Near term UK rate rise looking less likely now after ECB.

[luckymouse] 04/9/2014 11:09

amazing the number of analysts that set their target at the top or top neckline of a stocks chart formation - means they don't really know either ;)

[sjc] 03/9/2014 11:16

Looks like H&S neckline imo Chart looks interesting if it completes the move badtime.
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[badtime] 03/9/2014 09:00

Better reaction to results....anyone with a short term target

[shanklin] 02/9/2014 17:35

CR, I cannot currently access REFS but, pre-results, - was already showing a consensus Eps of 34.4p for the year just started. HTH.

[sjc] 02/9/2014 13:30

Chart saying buy me, volume will come now 5% invested here. All imo.
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[badtime] 02/9/2014 12:00

Sp reaction a tad disappointing

[cockneyrebel] 02/9/2014 09:41

upgrades to that 32p forecast imo Shanks.

"0802 GMT British housebuilder and construction company Redrow (RDW.LN) beats expectations for full-year results, pushing the shares higher. "Management continues to see a sustainable recovery in the housing market and looks well placed with a strong order book of GBP482 million," say analysts at Citibank. The bank rates Redrow's shares a buy with a target price of 350p. The FTSE 250 builder changes hands 1.6% higher at 285.5p. ([e-mail])

[shanklin] 02/9/2014 08:00

CR, only 32p?

[cestnous] 02/9/2014 08:00

Exceeded my expectations at least!

[montyhedge] 02/9/2014 07:56

Dividend up 100%, lol hope the rest of the sector pays those kind of dividends.

[leeson31] 02/9/2014 07:46

amazing figures. 28p eps FY. ~10 x pe at present

[sjc] 02/9/2014 07:40

Here we go.

[cockneyrebel] 02/9/2014 07:26

Beat forecast by 2p eps - must be upgrades to the 32p forecast for this year imo.

PE about 8 for this year imo - builders haven't been this cheap in years.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR