Real Good Food Share Discussion Threads

[typo56] 10/7/2014 10:13

ABF are finding the sugar market tough. How will that impact RGD? Surely an RNS soon?

[cockneyrebel] 02/7/2014 14:19

AIM have rules do they? :-)

CR

[typo56] 02/7/2014 14:15

Given it will have a material impact it's perhaps understandable that they want to wait for the CMA decision before releasing final results. Under AIM rules I think they've got until the end of September.

[cockneyrebel] 02/7/2014 10:36

Ah, was just going to post there should be news here soon and see Typo has beat me to it :-)

The Grim Reaper doesn't use sweetner :-)

Let's see how any news is "Tottified" this time.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR

[typo56] 01/7/2014 16:28

It's gone a bit quiet. News on the dispute and results soon perhaps.

[spaceparallax] 30/5/2014 11:29

it's certainly a big risk to leave hanging so perhaps they might justifiably delay.

[typo56] 29/5/2014 14:59

Real Good Food Company dispute to be resolved in July - See more at:



Might they delay results, until this is settled?

[spaceparallax] 16/5/2014 16:37

sp looking at risk of dropping closer to 30p

[typo56] 01/5/2014 20:14

ABF dispute doesn't sound like it's going too well:



A spokeswoman for ABF said: "The recent commercial dispute between the two companies is not a matter upon which it is appropriate to comment."

And then she goes on to comment....

"The matter was recently considered by the relevant regulator at that time, the OFT, who had undertaken a preliminary high level assessment, listened to the respective parties and in February 2014 took a decision not to open an investigation."

"Contrary to what was stated publicly by RGFC at the time there was no 'referral' (as that particular term is used in this field) to the CMA. We understand Napier has resubmitted the same complaint to the CMA and we have no reason to believe that the CMA will reach a different view to the OFT."

[spaceparallax] 01/5/2014 17:41

It's not in Omnicane's interest to undercut the BS price.... yet! Now if they were to squeeze RGD just undercutting BS, that would heavily impact on profit line negatively for RGD and positively for RGD; with this would come continuing slippage of share price After a few more months of share price weakness, the required bid price for Omnicane is suddenly much lower; hence, the company gets snaffled up for a song. Following which, Omnicane helps out its sister company with lower prices and consequent rising profits with a ready made conduit into the UK market.

[briangeeee] 01/5/2014 07:39

A couple of months ago, following the recent warning, Shore Cap increased their forecast of year-end debt from £29.3m to £35.4m. So the £31.5m seems is an improvement on that recent forecast. I think they must have been working hard on working capital, to avoid a fund raising. They probably feel if they can hold out until Mauritian sugar potentially comes available at the end of this year, that they may be OK. However that will be subject to what feels like a related party transaction. Why should Omnicane sell them sugar any cheaper that BS? The sugar syndicate will want to maximise the price for themselves and their growers. Omnicane will want to maximise their margin. Napier will want it as cheap as possible, but will be desperate to secure a contract. Omnicane own nearly 30% of RGD, so how will the pricing work out? Are RGD even guaranteed to even win the supply?

All very interesting, but it would be difficult to raise more equity funding at a decent price until there is contractual clarity around sugar supply.

[spaceparallax] 01/5/2014 07:25

Interesting to see how the mkt reacts to this ongoing problem for RGD. It sounds like a problem that isn't going to disappear in a hurry if at all - essentially a big looming risk.

[typo56] 01/5/2014 07:24

I may have missed something but did they ever inform the market that they expected net debt to exceed £31.5m at year end? Not that it's a surprise really. Net Debt/EBITDA is now over 9.5. If net debt at 31 Mar 2014 was £31.5m, does that imply it could hit £40m during H1?

A fundraising on the way?

[briangeeee] 01/5/2014 06:49

EBITDA expected at ~£3.3m. Looking at last year DA might be around £2.2m, so EBIT of £1.1m, which compares with Shore Cap forecast of £0.9m. Interest costs will probably be around the same level over the year, so say a full year loss of £0.6m, assuming little of no corporation tax due.

[spaceparallax] 09/4/2014 08:47

We appear to have a rebound - interesting to see how well it lasts and whether we've found the bottom.

[spaceparallax] 05/4/2014 07:36

Or their losses in this case.

[yewtrees] 04/4/2014 15:49

People cashing in their capital gains, leaving it right to the end of the tax year.

[spaceparallax] 04/4/2014 15:32

wow, share price looking very wobbly - will it rebound off the mid 30s or drop through?

[spaceparallax] 02/4/2014 11:14

You're not wrong Typo - that said, if they take no further holding for a few months that highest paid price suddenly becomes more attractive for them. They just need to wait patiently and watch the share price continue to slip.

[typo56] 02/4/2014 09:12

SP - If Omnicane were to make an offer it would have to be at or above the highest price they've paid for shares during the previous 12 months.

More likely I think, if there's a fund raising, there may be a waiver permitting Omnicane to hold over 30% without having to make a bid.

[briangeeee] 31/3/2014 10:12

It is difficult to envisage them getting a fund raising away until the BoD is sorted out. As a minimum, the board requires a strong non-executive chairman, and a new head of RemCom.

[spaceparallax] 31/3/2014 10:04

On the Omnicane holding - I'd expect them to play very canny i.e. hold off buying more or possibly dispose of a few to drive and hold down the share price in order that that can make the lowest possible offer should they hit the 30% holding in the near future.

Who knows PT might one day fall on his sword

[140661] 29/3/2014 08:12

Very relieved to have sold my position at 48p, chart is not looking good. Hope I am wrong but I suspect this is going lower. There is a good business here but the British Sugar dispute is very worrying. GLAH

[typo56] 28/3/2014 18:10

I expect Omnicane's holding will increase in the forthcoming fund raising.

[spaceparallax] 28/3/2014 11:13

Interesting given the recent share price movement that we haven't heard of any changes in the Omnicane holding.