Real Good Food Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 26/3/2014 17:37

Yes bottom fishing can be an easy way to loose money with no clarity

[spaceparallax] 26/3/2014 16:01

Looking at today's share price movement it would appear that some adventurous souls are seeing the dip as a chance to buy in on the cheap. Given the sharp fall of recent weeks with no clear bottom I'd say that's very brave, or perhaps a tad foolish.

Were we to reach 30p, which is probably unlikely, I might give it some thought but not right now and with no sign of light at the end of the tunnel.

[spaceparallax] 25/3/2014 11:51

It looks as if the mkt has finally cottoned on to PT's never delivering spin - hard to see it remaining above 40p for long.

[typo56] 05/3/2014 16:53

It's not just 2014 estimates that have been hit. Shore have also reduced 2015 estimates from pre-tax of £8.2m to £1.2m and eps from 8.7p to 1.3p, although talking about 2015 might be a bit accademic! And Shore is the house broker.

[spaceparallax] 05/3/2014 12:30

The BS dispute is a nonsense given PT's plainly expressed desire to 'reform the sugar market' i.e. double speak for reduce capacity and force up prices. The guy wants it all ways.

[typo56] 05/3/2014 09:44

I think the BS dispute may be a bit contrived and being used as an excuse for poor performance. Being squeezed is the danger you face with a distribution business model when you don't have sufficient control over cost and sell prices.

Perhaps one reason Omnicane have been picking up more shares is to massage their accounts. As I recall, they'll be able to book as an exceptional profit the difference between what they paid and the book value per share for RGD. Of course, that book value contains a lot of intangible goodwill.

Feels like a tower of cards about to collapse!

[140661] 05/3/2014 05:44

BrianG, that really is a disappointing figure, I hope the Company achieve a quick and positive resolution to the BS dispute.

[briangeeee] 05/3/2014 01:00

EPS for the current year now forecast to be -0.7p. Given that the sugar pricing hasn't been an issue for the whole year, that would seem an abysmal result if it actually came to pass. Not only that, but as cash flow will be so much worse than profitability, due mainly to capex, there really must be a valid concern over 'going concern'.

The key issue in the short term must be whether or not they have a valid case against British Sugar. [Totte's BS meets the other BS!]

Omnicane's buying and price support seems all the stranger.

[spaceparallax] 04/3/2014 15:09

Given that 140.... claims to be out now, it signals a grim time ahead if even their greatest advocate has jumped ship.

[cockneyrebel] 04/3/2014 10:32

I think he is PT spaceparallax :-)

CR

[spaceparallax] 04/3/2014 10:29

140.... are you related to PT?

[140661] 04/3/2014 06:34

I do feel PT and RGD have been unfairly criticized on this thread and I know PT cares greatly about the Company. The dispute with BSC is unfortunate and I hope the Company wins this battle but I have now sold my position and will look to reinvest when this battle is resolved. Good luck to the Company and I hope the shares do well at my loss. GLAH.

[tiredoldbroker] 03/3/2014 20:37

Fine having debt linked to receivables, until it kicks in... Then your past sales go to reduce the bank debt as they are paid for, and you can only sell for ready cash, as you have no O/D facility to enable your customers to pay 30/69/90 days later.

[briangeeee] 03/3/2014 16:23

Although their debt is secured on receivables, it would be interesting to know if any part of it has EBITDA covenants attached.

Given the form and tone of the warning, there has to be a high chance they'll be looking to raise additional equity funding.

It's been a very disappointing last few months for RGD.

[spaceparallax] 03/3/2014 15:54

Not sure what they're doing Brian - I'd say their best interest would be served by buying no more and letting the share price drift down for several months as others reduce their holding after the recent poor news. Then if they were able they could top-up and offer a pittance for the other shares.

One thing is for sure, despite PT's continual huff and puff and leechlike qualities RGD is going nowhere positive in the next year or two.

[typo56] 03/3/2014 15:52

I can see "the well publicised uncertainty in Eastern Europe" appearing in the next statement!

[briangeeee] 03/3/2014 15:44

With the weakness in European sugar prices, and Omnicane's poor last year, I'm not sure they'd be in a good position to buy RGD. OK, if they got it for peanuts from the administrator, that's maybe another issue, but even then the (significant) creditors would have to approve, and I just don't feel that's a likely route.

Omnicane's been buying recently, and effectively supporting the price at 50p. The current year has probably seen the highest capex in RGD's recent history. Profits were lower than expected at the HY. Last year's cash flow was poor. We've now had a warning on fully year profits, with what sounds like 5% off 60% of Napier Brown and Garretts revenue. A new joint broker has been appointed, and the company's currently doing the the rounds.

Are Omnicane simply trying to protect their existing investment and minimise dilution, rather than stump up again for a larger sum.

[typo56] 03/3/2014 15:07

Not necessarily Felix. I think it quite possible that cash constraints will mean the company has a share issue in the not too distant future, "in order to increase working capital". Perhaps reason to appoint Daniel Stewart last week? If that does happen, isn't it possible for them to apply to the Takeover Panel for a whitewash waiver, allowing Omnicane to increase their stake beyond 30% without having to make a mandatory bid?

Or if it all goes belly up Omnincane will just cherry pick from the administators!

[felix99] 28/2/2014 14:13

well if they go over 29.9% they have to offer to all shareholders at the highest price they paid over last 12 months

[spaceparallax] 28/2/2014 13:36

One thing is for sure - if Omnicane weren't mopping up the sellers, the share price would likely be nearer 40p.

[spaceparallax] 28/2/2014 12:23

Hmm, Omnicane further increasing their holding - presumably an offer is on the cards. The big question is at what level?

[spaceparallax] 26/2/2014 08:51

That could prove a mixed signal - IC being a marmite affair.

[alter ego] 25/2/2014 15:13

IC (online) today say "buy". I'm no longer a holder but others might just be mislead into thinking RGD are a good investment.

[andy] 25/2/2014 13:37

space,

That chart pattern looks familiar! :-)