Real Good Food Share Discussion Threads

[tonyfabrizi] 24/10/2013 08:35

Agreed, frustrating but hopefully short term

[spaceparallax] 24/10/2013 08:13

Much of the recent rise has been founded on sound reason, but given the previous low period there will always be disenchanted investors looking to unload when given an advantageous opportunity arises. For long termers this is frustrating but it's the way of the World.

[140661] 23/10/2013 19:23

SpaceP, you are certainly right about the shares having enjoyed a good run which has been based on the excellent news on Whitworths but more importantly strong institutional buying. Whether there is any retracement will depend on whether the funds have stopped buying. I understand there is a growing number of institutions looking to invest so time will tell. GLAH

[spaceparallax] 23/10/2013 17:12

I suppose after the recent ascent a little retracement was inevitable. Probably back to the mid 50s but should then be firm for a while.

[140661] 22/10/2013 06:31

Spoke to PT yesterday and found him in excellent form, very enthusiastic and confident about the company's future. The key points I would pass on:
1. the company is continuing to invest heavily in people and infrastructure with the sugar handling facility operation al later this year. PT believes this will be very helpful in reducing costs particularly as the company increase their supply.
2. Haydens continues to improve performance and the online activities at Renshaws are growing strongly.
3. the company is now attracting some institutional interest which it has not previously achieved, hence the recent improved trading volumes.
4. the long awaited research should be out in the next month, this will include an in depth study of the sugar industry and where RGD fits.

I remain very confident this share has much further to go and expect to see a 3-4x return over 2-3 years from the current levels. GLAH

[tonyfabrizi] 18/10/2013 15:33

BrianG, thxs makes total sense.

[briangeeee] 18/10/2013 12:37

I think it's had a long period during which holders have been selling down. There have been concerns about the level of debt, costs being added due to high marketing and compliance spend, and management were repeatedly seen to be making promises on which they weren't delivering. During all this time Omnicane have been buying stock in the market and reducing the free float.

At some point sentiment turns, and all of a sudden the focus is on the growth prospects, fuelled by the investment of the last couple of years. With less shares in issue and a flood of new buyers, the correction to a more sensible valuation can be rapid.

Of course the previous concerns still exist, but there is just less focus on them and more focus on the sunny upside.

[tonyfabrizi] 18/10/2013 09:33

jus looked at my screen to see RGD up another 3.5p, looks like we will be having an enjoyable weekend. Does anyone have any explanation for this sudden share price rise?

[briangeeee] 17/10/2013 08:43

Hadn't noticed this previously, but a positive mention in the Evening Standard

[spaceparallax] 17/10/2013 08:35

It is nice to see and based upon the recent positive news.

[tonyfabrizi] 17/10/2013 06:14

Great share price run recently, long may it continue. Strong buying which must be another good sign.

[briangeeee] 16/10/2013 13:36

I spent reasonable time at the AGM speaking with all five divisional heads. While I've significant grumbles about the top level of the RGD business in several respects, I think PT is good on operational management and business structure. For the first time, it feels to me that there are now five appropriate and capable divisional MDs in place.

PT will probably keep micro-managing aspects, but gradually the need for him to do so will reduce, along with some kick-back from the divisional MDs if they feel all is, as should be, under their control. PT should be free to focus on more corporate and sugar sourcing activities, and probably large sales contracts.

I expect the Broker Note that focuses on the sugar business should be out shortly, and hopefully will further aid understanding. I'm not aware of any Omnicane related announcement, certainly not relating to Mauritian sugar contracts, but Omnicane may well be helping with sourcing other African sugar for supply the new Immingham distribution facility.

[sidam] 16/10/2013 11:56

BG
Thanks for your input on size of whitworth, which adds real value to this thread.

Not as small as I thought and margins on branded products should be higher and more valuable than sugar trading. So far pleased with my holding.
All the best.

[140661] 16/10/2013 06:20

BrianG, I agree with your assessment. The company are clearly investing heavily in sales and marketing so its great to see some early results at Napier Brown. I am hoping for news on the Omnicane supply agreement this side of Xmas and that is the big game changer, fingers crossed.

[wylecoyote] 16/10/2013 05:41

Thanks, clearly have some more research and learning to do here.

[sidam] 15/10/2013 21:37

I think you are probably wrong by a mile. The whitworth baking sugars will only be a very small proportion of the revenues of Napier Brown

[wylecoyote] 15/10/2013 21:16

Typo,Yes £157m. I also assume that they may achieve similar margins and that brokers are slow to update on the news?

[typo56] 15/10/2013 20:52

Do you mean about 150k £'000s? i.e. £157m

[wylecoyote] 15/10/2013 20:25

Right, if I understand this correctly. Napier brown have won contracts with asda, etc.. it will result in a doubling of revenues? So im the final year results, revenues for napier brown were 150k. So this is significant. Can someone please advise if I have read the rns correctly?

[spaceparallax] 15/10/2013 12:43

The recent news is unquestionably good.

[140661] 15/10/2013 11:43

I accept I am very bullish on this stock but I have been for a long time and the pieces of the jigsaw appear to be falling into place nicely. GLAH

[spaceparallax] 15/10/2013 10:12

I don't think that there's much talking down here.However, you do appear to be guilty of the opposite.

[140661] 15/10/2013 06:43

Spacep, I am not clear what you are unsure about? Omnicane have around 24% of the company and have an average buying price around the current price, The largest shareholder is the Ridgwell Family with 31% who obtained their shares when they sold the sugar business to RGD for shares in RGD when RGD's shares were trading at well above 150p. I believe it is highly unlikely therefore that the Ridgwell family would accept shares in Omnicane although I am confident they would accept an attractive cash offer. Omnicane cannot take over RGD without the Ridgwell stake and if they bought that stake for cash they would have to make a full cash offer to all other shareholders at the same price. I hope that helps clarify matters for you.