Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[holts] 06/9/2018 15:28

I recall last time time before on Russian concerns I think it got back to 1.20 odd which would be welcome from top up viewpoint .

[kenny] 06/9/2018 12:37

Volume for RAVP is now positive for the day and for this week, so far. However, the share price is down 4p for the day and 6.5p for the week. I think that substantiates my comments in post 31 above, namely, that this is all sentiment driven.

Does anyone think that sentiment on Russia will eventually change? Anyone think it might be a good idea to hold until it does and collect the dividends in the interim?

[igbertsponk] 06/9/2018 12:07

Bit of weakness on Russian poisonous activities.
I reckon a good top-up opportunity.
Think Putin realises this hasn't worked out well and some detente cordiale will break out between him and Trump. Will be a White House meeting later this year and the frost will begin to thaw.

[cwa1] 06/9/2018 12:01

LOL. A lot of the fixed income prefs are XD today!

[my retirement fund] 06/9/2018 11:20

All the fixed income prefs are getting hammered.

[kenny] 06/9/2018 10:21

I follow Warren Buffet's mantra - buy when stocks are cheap and sell when they are expensive.

The above is not intended as investment advice (but perhaps basic common sense!).

[otemple3] 06/9/2018 10:09

Might have read some did trade data there! However still not significant volume.

[otemple3] 06/9/2018 10:05

On 4 trades totalling £10k! Hope this walk down on zero volume continues as wouldn't mind a top up.

[11_percent] 06/9/2018 09:31

monty,

In case you missed it, its tanking.

[11_percent] 06/9/2018 07:49

Its time to get out of this.......the Russia WAR risk is too high.
Expect further selling today.

[kenny] 06/9/2018 01:05

Sentiment is poor due to a negative view on Russia arising from sanctions. The rouble is effected by this as well as by the current negative view on “emerging̶1; market currencies, despite the fact Russia is the only emerging market where the government is not burdened with massive debt. Indeed, Russian government debt, as a percentage of GDP, is lower than any other emerging market and also lower than the US, UK and Japan.

Mark down in the share price does not arise because selling volume exceeds buying volume but rather market makers need to balance their book while negative sentiment exists. In particular, because I track sales and purchases over time, I can tell you that buying volume is positive (measuring buys less sells) and at the same net plus level as the beginning of May 2018, yet the share price is about 5p lower than it was then.

However, market makers need to pick up cheap stock at a time when a) sentiment is negative combined with b) a point in time when RAVP is some time away from the next ex-div date. Indeed, there is no better time for market makers to flush out weak holders than when the above two factors apply. This is proved by the fact that, for example, they marked the share price down yesterday and today despite the fact net selling volume over the week so far is minus 1k shares!! What I have learnt, over time, is that sentiment is far more important than net positive buy volume in determining the share price of RAVP.

Any nervous holder, will no doubt sell but investors who have held RAVP over the last two to three years will have seen it all before. It is pretty meaningless to long term holders because there is no threat to the coupon, irrespective of the sentiment reading.

P.S. Also note the ordinary share price is pretty unaffected and the RUSC price has not moved at all. RUSC is overwhelmingly held by institutions rather than individual holders - and institutions tend to trade on inside news, so as they are not selling RUSC, I take that as further confirmation that my views expressed above have some substance.

[11_percent] 05/9/2018 17:11

What's happening guys.....we are on a steady down trend.

[tenbag] 31/8/2018 15:54

No, preference shares generally are not covered well by the IC.

[bench2] 31/8/2018 12:20

RAV " a buy for the brave " from the FT owned Investors Chronicle today , they never mention the pref .

[kenny] 31/8/2018 09:26

Thanks catsick, that is useful input. I think it is more important to consider and discuss the FT article rather than short term movements in the share price.

[catsick] 31/8/2018 03:01

I would take what the ft has to say about putin with a pinch of salt, they rabidly hate him and will never miss an opportunity to slander him, I think he is building a stable coalition of states who will not to what the US tells them to and can happily continue down this path, sanctions have not been painful they have made Russia stronger and are in effect trade barriers imposed by the other side, in effect what trump is trying but failing to achieve for the us. The main issue at the moment for Raven is currency volatility but they are much batter placed to deal with it now and the more they become ruble denominated the safer a bet it becomes ....

[kenny] 29/8/2018 19:43

In terms of taking a long term view rather than short termism in investing, this article today from the FT is worth considering.

Looks like Putin has reached the stage where neither of the two options he faces is good for him, in the long term. However, I think he will opt for "making friends" with the West because he really has pursued the other option hard over recent years and it has just lead to more and more sanctions with nothing to show for the pain.

Making friends with the West also has the advantage of being able to reduce defence spending in Russia which has, in recent years, risen to a big percentage of the federal budget.

"Putin beware: Russians are changing their view of the west"


If you are not a FT subscriber, to read, go to google and enter the title of the article.

[kenny] 29/8/2018 19:15

The 45k trades look like put-throughs, as mentioned by Holts. The trades are not all sells today - the one's at 144p are buys.

If an investor panics they are going to follow the trend and only obtain below average returns. RAVP is for income and to receive that income you need to be invested for the long term. That is not to say the share price may not fall further, but what is not in doubt is the security of income.

Despite my above comments, if any investor is a nervous type, perhaps they ought to sell and put the money on deposit with a bank.

[holts] 29/8/2018 18:51

The 45k trades are for some accounting purpose although the spread is high for such an arrangement and most of the ususal suspect fixed interest items are marked down today .

[11_percent] 29/8/2018 16:56

Igbert,

Cheers....I stop drinking out of the vodka bottle now....

That's a handy site I Did know about....cheers.

[igbertsponk] 29/8/2018 16:54

LOL - hardly massive!
Many days have similar volume.

[11_percent] 29/8/2018 16:47

Trades are all SELLS today....and there are a few big value ones.

[11_percent] 29/8/2018 16:42

But Igbert........it is not falling....it fuking TANKING....have you seen the SELLS today.....every trade a SELL and big ones at that.

If this continues tomorrow.....I will think about joining them.

[igbertsponk] 29/8/2018 15:18

0.5p drop makes it a total of 3p since went ex int.... took it's time!