Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[eeza] 24/1/2020 11:57

Offer has slowly increased. 10k buy today @ 136.50p.

[zangdook] 19/1/2020 08:45

The 180 degree distortion of news from Russia is quite predictable nowadays. Here's a less demented take on the proposals for constitutional reform:

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2020 01:06

Loganair on the Russia thread; Russian gold and foreign currency reserves have hit $557.5 billion in the first 10 days of the new year, according to the latest figures released by the country's central bank.The current level is 10 percent higher than the target level set by the regulator and the highest since October 2008, when foreign reserves amounted to nearly $547 billion. Russia spent a significant part of its reserves supporting the ruble in the aftermath of the financial crisis and after the West hit Moscow with sanctions in wake of the 2014 conflict in Ukraine. Since then, Russia floated the Rouble and has been rebuilding its forex reserves from the $350 billion low to their current level.Russia's international reserves are highly liquid foreign assets comprising stocks of monetary gold, foreign currencies and Special Drawing Right (SDR) assets, which are at the disposal of the Central Bank of Russia and the government.The country has been steadily boosting and reshaping its international holdings, reducing the amount of US dollars in favour of other currencies, including the Chinese yuan and the euro. Moscow has been also extensively investing in gold, with bullion reserves standing at more than $110 billion as of 01st January 2020.

[igbertsponk] 16/1/2020 09:20

If those yields are actually achieved then the Ords price will have a massive shift upwards and the Prefs will be Solid as an Ashford & Simpson song.
Convertibles could well be the ideal compromise choice too.

[igbertsponk] 15/1/2020 16:19

Good article. Haven't seen posted on here or the other place.

[igbertsponk] 15/1/2020 14:18

Not sure the Putin "Dictator for life" plans will aid or hinder Russian sentiment. But good to see no immediate effect.


There will always be a few brave souls who stand up against those who try to dictate their views and silence others. More power to them says I ;-)

[kenny] 15/1/2020 14:15

I agree with Monty that a interest cut by the BoE makes RAVP look cheap albeit it is already cheap because of the fact there may still be a overhang of stock from Woodford.

My research suggests that interest rates are likely to remain "lower for longer". Japan is 24 years into low interest rates with no sign of being able to increase them. The UK & US are 10 years into low interest and today's announcement of a fall in inflation to 1.3% merely confirms that the UK is very far from being able to consider moving rates up.

Here's a link to a recent BoE staff paper with research suggesting interest rates have been trending downwards for eight centuries (that is even longer than my investment horizon!) and could enter negative territory permanently!

[montyhedge] 15/1/2020 08:59

I think 155p is a given, when BOE cut rates this year.

[montyhedge] 14/1/2020 12:46

BOE looks like going to cut rates, more investors looking for yield, I expect quite a few may be tempted by Raven.

[my retirement fund] 14/1/2020 11:05

Final warning sponky boy !

[igbertsponk] 14/1/2020 08:57

Think may buy oodles more but hoping for a pullback when the Woodford noise dies down.

[banj] 14/1/2020 08:29

Well said Kenny. It must be said i very much quietly enjoy and benefit from your research. Thank you.

[igbertsponk] 13/1/2020 17:03

Yes, flat indeed going forward. That's in the future, for anyone reading.

[kenny] 13/1/2020 11:33

Ruble against the Pound is currently just over 79. It has strengthened from the over 82 it was trading at the end of 2019. The ruble has a volatile history albeit it seems very stable over the last 12 months and this stability may be something that becomes the new normal.

[kenny] 12/1/2020 12:16

For those who think the Moscow warehouse market has been "flat" in 2019, consider this report:

KNIGHT FRANK: RESULTS FROM 2019 FOR THE MOSCOW REGION WAREHOUSE MARKET

The market has entered the stage of growth in rental rates.

Analysts at the international consulting company Knight Frank summarized the preliminary results of 2019 for the warehouse market in the Moscow region and prepared a forecast for 2020. Among the key trends are:

The share of vacant warehouse space has reached its minimum value since 2013 - 2.5%;

The demand for constructing proprietary warehouses more than doubled - up to 24%;

Against the background of a decrease in the volume of transactions in the Moscow region, a twofold increase in the regions of Russia is expected - up to 900,000 square meters.

The market has entered the stage of growth in rental rates.

According to preliminary results of 2019, the total supply on the Russian warehouse real estate market amounted to about 27.2 million square meters, of which 55% or just over 15 million square meters is located in the Moscow region. Over the year, the total supply in the metropolitan area increased by 6%.

This year, about 850,000 square meters of high-quality warehouse space were commissioned in the Moscow region, which generally corresponds to the values of 2018 (805,000 sq. m). At the same time, as in the previous year, we note that the share of speculative warehouses in the total volume of new construction is less than 50%, and according to preliminary data, 27% of the commissioned space is built for proprietary needs, and 29% is built-to-suit.

[kenny] 12/1/2020 10:37

Interesting and possible read across in terms of rising rents, interest rates on a down trend and e-commerce developing in Russia:

[eeza] 10/1/2020 08:38

Lol !!!


Of course.

[nerja] 10/1/2020 08:30

Hmmm eeza should I top up again?

[kenny] 09/1/2020 13:59

Strange as it may sound to us Westerners, Russia is becoming one of the safest places, in this Trump world, to invest in!!

Look, for example, at the share price of a Russian fund like JRS over the last 9 months. It is a crazy world with Trump putting sanctions on EU companies and the EU saying he is interfering in their domestic affairs in order to make US gas more attractive to EU countries. Threatening sanctions on Turkey, another ally, if it purchased a Russian air defense system. Trump even threatening sanctions on Iraq, this week, if they asked the US to withdraw its troops from Iraq!

Trump wants the US to interfere and tell countries what they can and cannot do – is that a foreign policy stance that is attractive to your friends?

EU countries are getting fed up and thinking of withdrawing some of the sanctions against Russia that are hurting their economies. In any event, sanctions are no longer effective – purely because they have been over used, countries have adapted, so the threat of them is now ineffective.

Meanwhile, Russia has massively increased trade with China and now has more influence in the Middle-East than the US. Considering how much the US has “invested̶1; in the Middle-East, including Iraq, that is an amazing situation to arrive at. Russia also has a stable economy backed by more government reserves than any other country outside of the unstable Middle-East.

[eeza] 09/1/2020 13:26

Well done.

Try it again !!

[nerja] 09/1/2020 13:19

Yep just topped up an extra 2k seems to have turned

[eeza] 09/1/2020 13:03

Full offer (135p) being paid now, and bid moves up.

[igbertsponk] 09/1/2020 12:10

Moscow warehouse market looks pretty flat - vacancies stagnant as a % due to new completions.