Rdl Realisation Share Discussion Threads

[touche] 12/1/2018 14:25

US solar decision was due today but has been put back by 14 days. Special report on the remedy to go before WTO seen as a very strong sign of being a positive outcome for US solar hence price rise.

[spectoacc] 12/1/2018 09:32

I guess a shares rag tip also possible - EMS is only 300 shares so the could delay eg a 3k buy by hours.

[rogerrail] 12/1/2018 09:30

Same here, been searching for news, I also can only think there may be a leak possibly an out of court settlement that has not been announced?

[spectoacc] 12/1/2018 09:14

Have no idea why it's up, unless there's a leak re Princeton? I read the Sept (yes, Sept) portfolio update & surely there's nothing of great interest 3.5 month on.

Also, no O trade buyers implying a tip & muppet money. Just very tiny AT offer hitting, on a huge spread. But that along has sent it up 8.5%.

Can't complain, happy to see it rise.

[spectoacc] 05/1/2018 15:40

Still seen nothing on the 20th Nov arbitration process - no indication of how it's going (if it's even still ongoing), how long it might take, what a likely resolution would be. I naively assumed they'd keep the market informed, and naively assumed it might take a week or so to resolve. Perhaps it'll take a year?

Edit - and ten minutes later we get this (note also the continuing effect of legal fees on the NAV):

"Princeton Update
The binding arbitration proceedings against Princeton Alternative Income Fund Ltd (“Princeton221;) began on 20 November 2017 and continued
through 30 November 2017. The arbitration proceedings are taking longer than expected and as a result the proceedings will recontinue over
a 4-day business period starting on 18 January 2018. Given the continuation of the arbitration proceedings, the Company has elected that
starting in November 2017, any income that is accrued by Princeton, will be added to Princeton’s loss reserve. This is a temporary action until
the arbitration proceedings have concluded."

[spectoacc] 21/12/2017 14:34

Thanks for that. Still in both RDL & RDLZ, still think both are cheap, but - been very unimpressed with this so-called "arbitration process" that allegedly began on 20th November. Would also prefer it if they'd just get on with writing down Princeton on full, and admitting they got duped. They could always write back any small recovery.

[davebowler] 15/12/2017 15:03

Liberum;
Event
Ranger Direct Lending will take an additional $9.1m writedown against its indirect investment in the Argon portfolio. The exposure to Argon is through Ranger’s investment in Princeton Alternative Income Fund. The writedown will reduce NAV by 3.8% and will be included in the October NAV which is due to be reported shortly.

Ranger has applied this reserve as a result of information received regarding its investment in Princeton as part of the ongoing arbitration proceedings.

This is in addition to the $10.4m writedown against the Argon portfolio due to a decline in cash flows attributable to the portfolio, which was announced last month. $2.1m of fees from both Princeton and the investment manager will be added back to Ranger's NAV as a result of today's writedown and the $10.4m writedown announced last month.

Liberum view
Ranger originally invested $55.6m in Princeton. Total impairments relating to Argon are now c.$28m or 50% of the original investment in Princeton. We estimate the remaining investment in Princeton is c.$29m (13.3% of NAV), of which $3.8m (1.8% of NAV) relates to Argon.

[spectoacc] 15/12/2017 07:37

The usual death by a thousand cuts - another weighty provision, yet still no resolution of Princeton. Been very unimpressed with the information coming out of the co about an arbitration process that began on 20th November - how exactly does arbitration take so long, and who's paying?

[spectoacc] 28/11/2017 16:35

Good read for those new to RDL. But nothing new in it & the usual David Stevenson!

[rogerrail] 28/11/2017 15:37

Worth reading:

[spectoacc] 28/11/2017 14:48

Arbitration been going on over a week, and they've still nothing to say? Very odd.

[spectoacc] 14/11/2017 07:13

Staggering how little control/knowledge they STILL have on Princeton. Somehow I can't see the 20th Nov arbitration improving things by much.

" 14 November 2017
14 November 2017
RANGER DIRECT LENDING FUND PLC
Princeton - Portfolio Update
Further to the Company's announcements regarding the bankruptcy proceedings in respect of Argon Credit, LLC and Argon X, LLC (together, "Argon"), the Company has been informed by the Princeton Alternative Income Fund Ltd ("Princeton") that it intends to take an additional gross reserve of approximately $10.4 million against the Argon portfolio due to a decline in recent cash flows attributable to the portfolio.
The notification by Princeton does not contain detailed financial records or portfolio information that would allow the Company to fully assess the basis on which the reserve has been taken and, as a result, it is unable to confirm the precise impact of the reserve on NAV at the current time. However, the Company currently expects that the reserve will be treated as an impairment of its investment in Princeton which would result in an approximate decrease of approximately 4% in the NAV per Ordinary Share calculated as at 30 September 2017. The reserve does not have an impact on the Company's dividend to be paid in respect of the third quarter of 2017 as announced today.
The Company has again written to Princeton urgently seeking additional information. As previously notified to shareholders, the arbitration proceedings against Princeton are due to commence on 20 November 2017 and additional information will be sought by the Company as part of those proceedings.

[davebowler] 06/11/2017 09:18

Liberum;
Ranger Direct Lending (Mkt Cap £126m)
1.0% Q3 NAV return

Event
Ranger Direct Lending has reported a NAV return of 0.22% for September in US Dollars (-3.6% in Sterling following US Dollar weakness). NAV per share at 30 September 2017 was $14.81.

September's returns were impacted by returns from some platforms where credit performance has declined in recent months. This includes the unsecured consumer lending platform which has experienced an increase in late payments and defaults. Ranger is in discussions to sell part of the consumer loan portfolio at or near par. Returns from loans sourced from a SME platform that provides short-duration business cash advances has been impacted by recent hurricanes in Texas and Florida. The company also incurred write-offs of 11bps relating to two of its suspended platforms (equipment finance and invoice factoring).

The Q3 dividend is expected to be $0.2845 per share (21.59p per share). Total dividends declared for the three quarters to September 2017 would be 73.1p per share. The Q3 dividend is ahead of recent guidance for a total dividend of 25p for H2 2017.

As previously announced, the board is in discussions with potential co-managers who could assist in some or all aspects of the manager's current role and responsibilities. This includes identifying new lending categories, sourcing platform partnerships, conducting platform due diligence, structuring investments, portfolio management and back-office support.

Liberum view
September's monthly loss reserve of 49bps is the highest since launch. Charge-offs rose to 42 bps in September compared to an averge of 33bps to date in 2017. We calculate a NAV return of 1.0% in Q3 and 5.2% YTD. Ranger currently trades on a discount to NAV of 31.1% (15% discount assuming full write-off of Princeton investment) and a wide discount is likely to persist until there is greater clarity on the Princeton

[spectoacc] 24/10/2017 11:45

Interesting, thanks.

[davebowler] 24/10/2017 10:44

Liberum;
Ranger Direct Lending has published a portfolio update as at 30 June 2017. The update contains a breakdown of the payment status of the portfolio by lending category and lending partner.

Further detail is included on the $20.7m of loans in default. $17.2m of these relate to real estate loans where the average LTV on these investments is 51%. The majority of this is expected to be repaid in the near-term predominantly as a result of property disposals. Of the remaining defaults, $1.3m relates to unsecured consumer loans with a corporate guarantee and $2.2m is made up of MSE, MCA equipment and factoring investments.

The shares currently trade on a -29% discount to NAV. The investment manager is available for calls this week with existing and potential investors following the publication of the portfolio update.

[spectoacc] 10/10/2017 10:54

Interesting. Makes you realise just how badly all these could do in anything approaching a recession - let alone a full-blown 2008 crisis. And a recession will come along, they always do.

Remain a holder based on the discount & actions of management. Not in VPC, P2P, SQN etc. Fail to see the sector surviving in a proper downturn.

[davebowler] 10/10/2017 10:51

Liberum;
Ranger Direct Lending (Mkt Cap £128m)
4.9% return to date in 2017

Event
Ranger Direct Lending has reported a NAV return of 0.42% for August in US Dollars (+2.6% in Sterling following US Dollar appreciation). NAV per share at 31 August 2017 was $14.78.

In line with recent guidance, returns in the month were impacted by slightly lower returns from two platforms and legal expenses related to the Princeton arbitration (11bps of legal expenses in August). Arbitration is scheduled to begin on 20 November and is expected to complete by the end of the month. A definitive ruling is anticipated shortly after.

The two platforms that are experiencing lower returns include a US consumer lending platform and a SME platform that originates short-term business cash advances. The US consumer lending platform has experienced an increase in late payments and defaults. Ranger has not invested in any new loans from this platform since March 2017. Ranger still expects the net return from investments on this platform to be 6-8% after allowing for the increase in defaults.

The short-term business cash advance investments have high effective rates and high expected defaults with expected net returns of 12-15%. Default rates on the initial investments were higher than expected which resulted in Ranger increasing loss reserves. Net returns are now expected to be 10-12%. The platform was recently acquired by a large international online payment system provider. Ranger will not make any new investments from the platform and the remaining portfolio will be wound down over the next 6-9 months.

In total, Ranger has suspended investments in 6 of its 13 platforms (see below).

Princeton
Equipment lender - new investments permanently suspended in 2016
Consumer lender - new investments permanently suspended in 2016
Secured medical lender - temporarily suspended as loan agreements are updated
Consumer lender - new investments suspended in March 2017 (described in text above).
SME lender - portfolio winding down (described in text above).
Liberum view
The monthly loss reserve of 38bps was in line with the prior six months. Charge-offs reduced considerably from 59 bps in July to 22 bps in August. NAV total return in US Dollars in 2017 to date is 4.9%. Given recent management guidance of monthly returns of 40-50 bps until the end of the year, NAV return is expected to be c.6.5% for 2017.

Ranger currently trades on a discount to NAV of 29.0% (12.3% discount assuming worst-case scenario of full write-off of Princeton investment) and a wide discount is likely to persist until there is greater clarity on the Princeton situation.

[spectoacc] 26/9/2017 07:52

Depressing but hardly unexpected. November's arbitration re Princeton going to be key.

" The Company estimates that legal fees associated with Princeton will reduce NAV growth by approximately 15 basis points ("bps") per calendar month for the rest of 2017. Higher loss reserves against other consumer loan platforms will also detract from returns, as will cash drag as funds are reallocated away from closing platforms into new investments.
Currently, the Company estimates that monthly NAV growth in the second half of 2017 will average 40-50 bps and will then recover to 60-70 bps in 2018, assuming a resolution of the Princeton issues this year. To the extent that this NAV growth is achieved, this is estimated to achieve an aggregate dividend yield of approximately 25 pence per Ordinary Share in the second half of 2017, compared to the 46 pence per Ordinary Share already paid in the first half of 2017. Clearly, these estimates of NAV growth and dividend yield are based on the best information available to the Company at this time and actual results may differ from these estimates. "

[spectoacc] 13/9/2017 16:44

A weasel RNS, hiding away Princeton comments in July update.

"The main reasons for a lower return in July were due to a
decrease in income attributable to slightly lower platform returns and the continued legal expenses for the Princeton arbitration"

And:

"Furthermore, as part of the initial stages of the Proceedings, the arbitrator has issued an Order that requires any proceeds, net of expenses,
received from the Argon Bankruptcy to be paid by Princeton to Ranger on a monthly basis. The Order, whilst not granting all items requested
by the Company, requires Princeton to notify Ranger within three business days before entering into (i) any additional investment which
exceeds the amounts of a historical benchmark, (ii) any action which would distribute or dispose of the Princeton assets (other than normal
interest payments or asset dispositions controlled by the bankruptcy court), (iii) any proposed action which would encumber its assets or result
in liability in excess of $50,000, or (iv) any transaction which would alter the capital structure of Princeton.
The Company has also been notified by Princeton that it intends to suspend cash distributions to its investors with effect from 30 September
2017 owing to the level of redemption requests it has received, including from the Company. The suspension will not apply in respect of net
proceeds from the Argon bankruptcy which Princeton is required to distribute pursuant to the Order described above. Income that would
have otherwise been distributed will be allocated by Princeton to the Company’s capital account. Notwithstanding the suspension, owing to
the accounting treatment of the accrued income in the Princeton investment, the Company does not expect that the suspension will, of itself,
have a material impact on the amount or timing of dividends that the Company will be able to declare in 2017. As part of the Proceedings, the
Company will seek to ensure that Princeton recommences cash distributions as soon as possible."


I read that as less money coming in, money going out on legals, and a maybe/maybe not resolution in November. Meanwhile, returns overall look decidedly poor, and that's with only one fiasco investment having gone wrong, and without the economy turning down.

All IMO. I remain a holder, but based on the discount.

[spectoacc] 01/9/2017 07:24

Thanks - interesting re SQN too, tho "Z-score" something of a nonsense when it fails to take into account news. RDL & SQN both turned historically "cheap" for a reason each.

[davebowler] 31/8/2017 16:55

Mentioned here -

[spectoacc] 24/8/2017 15:39

XD today.

Been a while with no corporate news - wonder how that arbitration's going, other than "slowly".

[spectoacc] 07/8/2017 15:03

Amazed their finding buyers in truth - so thin/illiquid.

Nearly a third of the co to go, assuming they want out of the lot - what do they know that I don't..

[scburbs] 07/8/2017 14:58

Invesco still selling. Almost down to 30%.