Randgold Resources Share Discussion Threads

[countless] 20/9/2018 10:27

The Motley Fool people run an article about the best five shares if no deal on Brexit and this was one of them stating - The groundshaking decision of the UK electorate in June 2016 prompted a demand surge for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver, as one would expect, and thus shares in the Footsie’s dedicated diggers. Randgold surged to record highs above £97 per share while Fresnillo rocketed to its own peaks, north of £20.
Both firms’ share prices have reversed significantly since then, leaving plenty of room for another surge should a terrifying no deal exit occur. There’s plenty of geopolitical and economic issues that could drive precious metals values sky-high again, and a painful Brexit is one of them.

[philanderer] 18/9/2018 17:02

RBC reiterates. UNDERPERFORM. Target 4500p. cut from 4900p

[kiwi2007] 17/9/2018 17:02

So, reading the above it's probably a good time to get into Gold Majors?

Vanguard Dropping 'Precious Metals'; Traders Ask Is This The Bottom?

[kiwi2007] 17/9/2018 17:00

One of the world’s largest asset managers is set to complete the overhaul of its precious metals and mining fund this month, in the latest sign of investor apathy towards gold.

Vanguard, the $5tn asset manager, will rename the fund, which was founded in 1984, the Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund, following a loss of 24 per cent over the past year.

The move, which has already triggered heavy selling of gold mining stocks on both sides of the Atlantic, is another sign of how investors have fallen out of love with the commodity.


“Investors have essentially run away from investing in them [gold miners],” David Neuhauser, the founder of Chicago-based hedge fund Livermore Partners, said. “In Canada, which has typically been a gold haven, all the talk is about cannabis and bitcoin. It’s extremely contrarian today to invest in gold.”

The performance of gold miners is set to be a key topic of the upcoming Denver Gold conference, which takes place on September 23. Last year New York hedge fund Paulson & Co. launched a blistering attack on the sector, saying investors had behaved like “sheep being led to the slaughter”.


The fund, which is run by billionaire John Paulson, plans to launch a “Shareholders Gold Council” of investors this month, designed to put pressure on mining companies to improve their performance.

While a lacklustre gold price has been one of the key reasons behind the sector’s dismal performance this year, the gold mining industry has also lost the trust of big institutional investors after years of wild overspending and, in North America, excessive executive pay.

The price of gold has fallen more than 8 per cent this year to $1,206 a troy ounce, down from a peak of $1,366 in January. The precious metal has suffered from the continued strength of the US dollar, which makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers.

US interest rates have risen steadily since January and with a three-month Treasury bill yield at 2.15 per cent, that makes holding gold less attractive since the metal provides no fixed income return.

At the same time, retail investor have alternatives to investing in gold, with the rise of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. In Canada, one of the biggest centres for gold mining investors, listed cannabis companies have become increasingly popular.

Few companies have been spared in the sell-off, with some of the biggest names in the industry notching up losses of up 40 per cent.

Barrick Gold, the world’s largest producer, is down 27 per cent, while Newmont Mining, the darling of the sector, is off 20 per cent and Randgold Resources, London’s biggest gold miner, has dropped 39. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver index has lost 25 per cent year to date.

Yet for most of the year, share prices tracked gold until late July when Vanguard announced it was restructuring its $2.3bn precious metals and mining fund.

“It damped sentiment, that’s for sure,” said one fund manager, pointing to shares in Newmont Mining, which were flat for the year before the news broke. “And it happened just as gold dipped below $1,200 an ounce.”

In a statement, Vanguard said it was restructuring the fund to “improve investor outcomes” and that “the precious metals and mining industry group presents a limited investment pool”.

The new fund will focus on telecommunications and utilities, with only around 25 per cent exposure to precious metals and mining.

Along with the weak gold price, analysts are also concerned that miners will face rising costs as the price for key fuels such as diesel increases, following a run-up in the price of oil to $80 a barrel, its highest level in a year.

“We’ve seen the benefits of a lot of the cost-cutting that they have been engaged in aggressively over the past few years,” said Suki Copper, an analyst at Standard Chartered in New York. “We’ll start to see declining margins with the lower gold price and costs starting to edge higher.”

Still, some analysts say the gold price could turnround if the dollar stabilises and US inflation picks up. Geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a full-blown trade war between the China and US could lend further support.

In addition, many investors say gold miners, which have repaired their balance sheets, are now focused on profitable production rather than chasing new ounces through ambitious new projects.

“They must continue to lower overheads and improve capital allocation,” said George Cheveley, who runs the Investec Global Gold Fund. “There probably needs to be some consolidation in the industry as well, among both the large and mid-cap miners.”

Mr Neuhauser says investors need to pick specific gold mining companies rather than invest in the whole sector.

“It’s a unique time — sentiment is extremely bearish and equity valuations are down,” he said. “But there is value there if you believe inflation is coming and the Fed is running at the end of its curve in terms of hikes in the next six months. Volatility and fear is also extremely complacent in the markets.”

Mr Cheveley agrees. “I still see investors who want to get access to gold and gold equities not least because of its role as a diversifier in a portfolio.”

[philanderer] 14/9/2018 21:19

Gold tumbling back to $1190..........RRS stateside close at 4660p.

Off to Athens on the red-eye , hopefully better luck for RRS next week.

[newbank] 14/9/2018 18:28

Three Hedge Funds Increased their Short on Randgold:

Marshall wake LLP,
Old Mutual Global Investments (UK) and
WorldQuant, LLC

Isn't it ironic that the US started the Crisis ten years ago through Fraud and now they are recovering far faster than any other Country. Doesn't seem right does it?

[essentialinvestor] 14/9/2018 14:34

US 10 year now yielding 3%, another batch of very strong US data.

[smokybenchod] 14/9/2018 14:27

This share is the dog of my portfolio woof woof. I’m hoping it will go up one day, I’ve had shares react better than this after major profit warnings. Am I missing something here???

[smokybenchod] 14/9/2018 14:26

Sorry duplicate post removed - see next msg

[fangorn2] 14/9/2018 13:23

"Even if the debt scenario described in that piece comes to pass, you could still have a situation where the $ remains strong simply because all the other currencies are in a worse shape"


Spot on...and what I'd argued we are currently seeing, and have seen to some extent prior.

When oh when is gold finally going to soar as it should.

[henryxx] 13/9/2018 19:50

Interesting article Fang but one important thing has been overlooked in my view.
Cash has to go some where and for that reason the call on the $ is not an absolute call but rather a RELATIVE call. Even if the debt scenario described in that piece comes to pass, you could still have a situation where the $ remains strong simply because all the other currencies are in a worse shape. Whether or not they would be is another matter altogether.One other point is worth making - the $'s reserve status still gives it leverage over other currencies. How long it will retain its reserve status who knows but I suspect it will be for a few years yet.

[fangorn2] 13/9/2018 11:25

Happy it interested :)

Surely this will , at some point, lead to a serious rise in gold.

We've been expecting such for ages...

This excessive debt binge simply can't continue indefinitely.

[philanderer] 13/9/2018 10:11

Good article Fang 👍

[fangorn2] 13/9/2018 08:22

Ray Dalio Spells Out America's Worst Nightmare
This article by Brian Chappatta for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Ray Dalio Spells Out America’s Worst Nightmare"


“We have to sell a lot of Treasury bonds, and we as Americans won’t be able to buy all those Treasury bonds,” Dalio said. That means foreign investors will have to step up. And they probably would, as long as the dollar remains strong.

Otherwise, Treasury’s dollar-denominated interest payments to buyers in China, Europe and Japan will be worth less and less.

But, to Dalio, that’s not going to happen. “The Federal Reserve at that point will have to print more money to make up for the deficit, have to monetize more and that’ll cause a depreciation in the value of the dollar,” he said. Pressed by interviewer Erik Schatzker, he said “you easily could have a 30 percent depreciation in the dollar through that period of time.” For context, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 8.5 percent in 2017, and that was considered massive.

It all leads up to this critique of how the U.S. has gone on a borrowing binge in recent years. Remember, the $15.3 trillion Treasury market was the $4.9 trillion Treasury market a decade ago.

“We have the privileged position of being able to borrow in our own currency because we have the world's leading reserve currency. We are risking that by our finances — in other words, borrowing too much.”


Eoin Treacy's view
Unfunded liabilities are not only a US problem but are something that governments right across the OECD will need to eventually address. Ray Dalio’s view that the rise in populism we are seeing today is a symptom of a wider problem gels with my own. Considering we are seeing this disaffection with the status quo during an economic expansion where unemployment is low, it is likely that the jump to the fringes of the political spectrum will only intensify during a recession.

[philanderer] 12/9/2018 21:02

Hit the wall at $1207....... RRS closing 4715p stateside

[citytrader66] 12/9/2018 19:34

if gold closes above $1214.30 it paves the way for a retest of the 1235.24-41.64 area!! it seems to be stalling at $1208

SP up 1.5% in US trading since LSE close. that gets me to breakeven on my buy a few days ago.. i nearly topped up at £46 yesterday but it didn't quite get there..

ECB tomorrow. maybe that will move gold. hopefully up of course.

[philanderer] 12/9/2018 17:41

Gold whoosh ;-) $1205

[chinese investor] 12/9/2018 16:20

DOW zooming as well !

[chinese investor] 12/9/2018 09:46

£50 Soon !

[philanderer] 11/9/2018 21:10

4700p close stateside with gold touching $1197

[redtom1] 11/9/2018 16:20

Umm....10 straight days of losses. That must be some kind of record! One hopes that the bottom is reached soon. I think in hindsight that I started my accumulation a couple of weeks too early. Oh well. Might pick some up in the £45s to lower my average. I'm still expecting a substantial rise in RRS over the next 6 months but obviously from a lower start point that I would have liked! Gold continues to bumble along in a tight range of 1185 to 2015 and has done so for a few weeks. The longer this continues, the more I'm convinced that the bottom has been reached on this current cycle. Watch this space.

[dongle features] 11/9/2018 14:03

Prof you lost another £4,000 today.
That's £60,000 in three months.
Are you coping?

[dazah] 11/9/2018 13:41

Famous last words at this price RRS being one of the most respected goldies in the world can become a takeover possibility?