Ramsdens Share Discussion Threads

[ronwilkes123] 29/11/2017 09:50

Sigh, look for the delayed trades later or in the next day or so. No share drops that much on no volume.

No disrespect intended to anyone, I know this board has its elder statesmen that can't be questioned. Gl all.

[yump] 29/11/2017 09:26

I wouldn't bother to comment guys - see his previous post. Its either a bot or we've picked up one of the lost boys of the bb's.

[xajorkith] 29/11/2017 09:06

Fall on tiny volume from what I can see & pretty irrelevant to anyone with an investment horizon greater than a few days.

Personally I see this at 250p+ in the next six months & happy to hold through short term volatility.

[igoe104] 29/11/2017 09:03

Anyone with any sense doesn't look at day to day trading they look at big picture?

[ronwilkes123] 29/11/2017 08:49

Think you can forget projections of those prices for the time being based on this mornings fall imo

[yump] 28/11/2017 12:49

It does look cautious and there's plenty of room for the rating to improve - I'm never sure about comparing with sector - at some point earnings growth will convert to a higher rating I'm sure.

If start looking a year or so ahead, could be 18p earnings x 15 = 270p, but meanwhile can just sit and watch the dividends and await news of Christmas retail sales.

[xajorkith] 28/11/2017 11:06

Traded gold through ETFs for a while but found it to be hugely unpredictable & heavilly influenced by the major players - JP Morgan in particular.

With world-wide QE in the trillions & ZIRP/NIRP, gold should be far higher but remains relatively surpressed, for me in part due to the rise of "digital gold" in the form of crypto-currencies.

Liberium taking a very cautious stance on the price, leaving room to beat imv.

[yump] 28/11/2017 10:12

GHF

Good to see you here... someone else to check my slightly random figures ;-)

[yump] 28/11/2017 10:10

Just been looking at a long term gold price chart and its quite stunning how the price rose from the recession onwards. Its also stayed up. So is that a sign of underlying lack of confidence in economies generally, despite various regions posting growth figures ?

Liberum seem to have picked a gold price half way between recent base (700 £/oz) and top (1000) - which seems a safe bet rather than anything clever.

[yump] 27/11/2017 23:22

speedsgh
o/t not including the rugby of course - it feels like England are just on the verge of becoming a real threat to NZ.

Unfortunately I have been told to keep the noise down when watching at home, as it scares the dog when I jump out of the chair ;-(

[glasshalfull] 27/11/2017 22:31

Also delighted with today’s H1 result announcement. Congratulations to Peter Kenyon & team.

Liberum have upgraded FY18 forecasts yet again. They raised forecasts by +22% in September 2017 (from 12.6p to 15.3p EPS) & today they raised forecasts by a further 6% (to 16.2p EPS).

I also believe that RFX will exceed this latest target. The growth in retail jewellery & foreign currency has been excellent: -

“The investment in our online offering has resulted in exceptional growth of 331% in online gross jewellery retail sales and growth of 134% in online foreign currency exchange, the latter of which was primarily driven by Click & Collect.”

Liberum have upgraded revenue expectations for both while downgrading precious metals revenue marginally to reflect a more cautious approach to the gold price. They are forecasting March 2019 period end price of £880/oz vs previous expectations of £937/oz. This goes some way to explaining why only a 6% overall upgrade to earnings today.

I’m also pleased they are taking a considered approach to store expansion. They actually reduced by 1 to 123 stores, due to the closure & merge with a nearby unit & the statement indicates that we are likely to see this expand by 8 stores in the short term.

Overall I’m delighted to be invested here & see strong growth potential for the foreseeable future given the diversified split of revenues and multiple channels for the company to grow. Also there is a decent 3.5% dividend in addition.

In terms of valuation, Liberum imply a valuation of 231p based on peer H&T Group (HAT) valuation & have raised their target price from 190p to 204p.

Kind regards,
GHF

[rp19] 27/11/2017 20:12

Excellent results and outlook. Only (slight) negative I could find was that the expansion of the estate has been slower than anticipated (though they then do state that near and medium term expansion plans are on track).

[igoe104] 27/11/2017 19:45

Tipped here.



Value, growth and income
Back in July, I outlined five reasons why I’d added pawnbroker, retail jeweller and foreign exchange operator Ramsdens Holdings (LSE: RFX) to my portfolio. Rather satisfyingly, Monday’s interim numbers appear to justify my confidence in the market minnow.
As a result of “continued strong growth” in its various divisions, revenue climbed 18% to £21.8m in the six months to the end of September.  A beneficiary of the “higher than anticipated” sterling gold price, Ramsden’s pre-tax profit rose a stonking 63% to £5.2m over the reporting period.
As intended, Ramsdens has seen excellent growth at its currency business with the amount exchanged rising 22% to £324m and the number of customers increasing by 15% to 511,000. The more traditional pawnbroking business also performed well over H1 with its loan book growing 18% to £6m. Retail revenue soared by 40% to £3.5m thanks to investment in stock and “improved window displays“. Although starting from a low base, the company’s online offering is beginning to yield results with gross jewellery sales up an impressive 331%.
Commenting on results, CEO Peter Kenyon reflected that the Middlesbrough-based business had enjoyed a “strong first half of the financial year” and that management remain “confident of delivering further progress” as Ramsdens enters the key festive period.
Taking into account its sound growth strategy, strong balance sheet (£13.4m net cash), decent 3.5% yield and the likelihood of its services becoming increasingly popular in the event of an economic downturn, I continue to think this small cap looks a steal at its current valuation of 12 times forecast earnings. 

[meijiman] 27/11/2017 19:36

Libertum is broker so will have a figure which the company can beat,

[martinthebrave] 27/11/2017 18:42

Liberum: 13.4p for 1st Half and new forecast of 16.2p for Full Year (adj diluted EPS)& Net cash £13.4m. Looks like quite a soft Full Year target.

[speedsgh] 27/11/2017 17:53

@yump - "That would almost be as exciting as watching England play"

Football or cricket? Both equally depressing imo. If rugby (union), then you're talking :o)

[interceptor2] 27/11/2017 17:52

FWIW, I have 18.43p pencilled in for this year, that is just worked out on the difference between the last H1 and H2 periods, but wouldn't be surprised if RFX exceed our expectations again.

[yump] 27/11/2017 14:22

Sorry I got the wrong figure there - can't get the columns to format on my screen - almost as bad as RNS shareholding announcements !

So yes 17p pencilled in for year then as per your previous post... and now await post Christmas update perhaps to find out if they will up their exceeds statement.

[xajorkith] 27/11/2017 14:12

EPS are calculated using profit after tax yump - so 13.2p diluted :)

Cheap either way when cash & growth factored in.

[yump] 27/11/2017 14:10

igoe104

Well I suppose if there are any short-termers who got in after the trading update, they can exit with a 5% profit.

That would almost be as exciting as watching England play ;-)

[yump] 27/11/2017 14:07

interceptor2

The first half eps is actually 17.3p.

£5.2mln pretax divided by 30mln shares - unless my calculator is kaputt.

[yump] 27/11/2017 14:06

ronwilkes12327 Nov '17 - 12:36 - 342 of 347 0 0

"Market not liking the numbers, being heavily sold into"

OMG, have we picked one up already ?

[glawsiain] 27/11/2017 13:53

Graham Neary has reviewed Ramsdens today:



His opinion:
"There are no red flags here, beyond the obvious exposure to the price of gold, which no company in this sector can control.

Momentum in FX is excellent and overall capacity in the pawnbroking/alternative credit sector remains very much deflated compared to the peak reached several years ago.

I'm surprised that more competition hasn't been attracted in yet. Whenever we get that big consumer recession, I expect that is when the competition will heat up a bit more. That will be the tricky bit, where management will again need to prove their worth. But for now, everything is plain sailing.

I see these companies as mini-banks, with the opportunity to earn a much higher return on their capital than traditional banks. Ramsdens appears to be well-managed and is a leader in those parts of the country where it is concentrated, making it a sound investment in my book. That's just my opinion, of course - never advice!"

[igoe104] 27/11/2017 13:18

Regarding the S/P, looks like short term traders getting out, it sometimes happens when you know the figures are going to be good.

[interceptor2] 27/11/2017 13:08

Like others here at first I thought the adjusted EPS figure of 8.1p was for current year just reported, but it didn't make sense when I checked the number of shares in issue.

FY17 threw me a little perhaps the wording could have been a little clearer, I have sent them an E Mail about this.

So an EPS of 13.4p for the first half of current year 2018 is very impressive and makes RFX extremely cheap when it is considered that they pay a dividend and are very cash generative with net cash at £13.4m.