Ramsdens Share Discussion Threads

[ronwilkes123] 27/11/2017 13:00

Not sure why either, but looking at current buy sell, likely to fall further. Poor reception for the news.

[michaeljames1] 27/11/2017 12:41

Not sure why though, couldn't have expected much better results than what were produced for this half.

[ronwilkes123] 27/11/2017 12:36

Market not liking the numbers, being heavily sold into

[meijiman] 27/11/2017 10:27

Cheap share with a robust business model. Has 200p plus written all over it based on a more appropriate valuation.Make that 220p!

[yump] 27/11/2017 10:01

It is very good value. If you just use the actual figures from now, (pre-tax profit and no. of shares), they've done 17.3p eps in first half. ie. pre-tax is 5.2mln, shares: 30mln. No adjustments - just based on current state of affairs.

If you add on your 30%, it will be too exciting ;-)

[xajorkith] 27/11/2017 09:51

Adjusting last years H2 for the cost of the IPO & the now reduced finance costs, and you get H2 eps of roughly 30% of H1 - resulting in approx FY of 10.5p.

So adding 30% to 13.2p in H1 this year gives a base target of around 17p FY for me, without factoring in any improved growth.

Deducting the 13.4m cash - worth around 45p - and you get a forward PE of only 8.5.

Seems extremely good value to me, but dyor etc......

[cfro] 27/11/2017 09:01

As discussed earlier, if the have a reasonable Christmas trading period then we could possibly assume basic eps for the full-year of around 20p.

If so then the PE is only 9 here.

[yump] 27/11/2017 08:53

Well we've got it unless someone else spots something else !!

Be interesting to see what happens with the share price - there was the 'usual' markup, but this doesn't seem to be followed by traders, so I imagine any significant share price rises are going to be based on more considered investments.

[michaeljames1] 27/11/2017 08:46

Gotcha, that's what I was getting at because if the first half results were replicated in the second half then the P/E would be stupidly low. Makes sense now, cheers.

[yump] 27/11/2017 08:43

So having FX in there has made a big difference to the business overall by the look of it, compared to just pawnbroking / jewellery etc.

[glaws2] 27/11/2017 08:40

H1 weighted due to the FX sales in the summer holiday season.

[yump] 27/11/2017 08:38

I think I've got it now... and it explains why they can say they will exceed full year forecasts when at interim stage...

The actual shares in issue now: 30mln.
Actual first half pre-tax profit: 5.2mln

eps for first half, as we are now: 17.3p.

However, if the 1.1mln exceptionals are stripped out from last year's second half (assuming they don't reoccur), last year's second half profit was about 30% of the first half. So profit is substantially first half weighted. Presumably because purchasing/expense is in advance of second half ? - haven't gone into the detail yet.

Not that I'm bothered given the first half profit !

Does that make sense ?

So they could just generate zero pre-tax in the second half and still exceed next year's forecast... which must be why they said they would exceed as early as the first half trading statement...

[glaws2] 27/11/2017 08:27

Michaeljames - they made a loss in H2 last year.

[glaws2] 27/11/2017 08:24

Yump - there is clearly confusion between Financial Year and calendar year.

The note "*Basic EPS reflects the shareholding structure as at the time. Adjusting the EPS for the post IPO shareholding, the EPS for the FY17 half year was 8.1p." is confusing.

RFX is actually in FY18 now - so the note above suggests to me that adjustment is for the period ending Sep 2016 - ie it is reducing the EPS from 10.1 to 8.1 - the 10.1 being provided for a post IPO comparison.

[xajorkith] 27/11/2017 08:18

The 8.1p refers to last years H1 as their FY ended in March 17 (see note 6):

2.499m profit after tax / 30,837,653 shares in issue = 8.1p

2.499m profit after tax / 24,723,300 shares in issue = 10.1p

They have done 13.2p diluted eps this H1 & have 13.4m net cash.

Fantastic results :-)

[interceptor2] 27/11/2017 08:15

Very impressive results today with so many positives. Noticed that net margins were 19% versus 13.55% from previous period, and net cash is now £13.4m (£9.7m) they are also a progressive dividend payer. Could also be on a low PER about 10 this year?

For the future online jewellery growth was 331% from a low base and there was 134% growth online from FX click and collect.

[michaeljames1] 27/11/2017 08:08

I'm with you there yump! I mean what caused the eps to fall from 10.1 for the half year ending Sept 2016 to 7.8 for the full year ending Mar 2017, there were the IPO costs but I feel like I'm missing something...

[yump] 27/11/2017 08:04

Note the half is 8.1p, not the 13p !!

[yump] 27/11/2017 08:03

michaeljames1

comparative eps has gone up from about 10 to 13, but the 8.1p is adjusted for an increased number of shares after float.

[martinthebrave] 27/11/2017 08:01

Fabulous results. Almost hit Full Year EPS target in 1st Half!

[igoe104] 27/11/2017 07:54

Full Year consensus only £5.88m, and they have hit £5.2m in the interims. good times ahead for holders especially as they start expanding. they are capable of doubling forecasts ?

[michaeljames1] 27/11/2017 07:46

Not sure if I'm being thick but is it right that eps reduced between the interims of last year and the final results? I know there were IPO costs but wouldn't expect eps to decrease...

[igoe104] 27/11/2017 07:41

its Looking like RFX will be a single digit P/E year end, with 13.4 million and growing in the bank, with double digit growth across the field. too cheap.

[cfro] 27/11/2017 07:41

These are brilliant results. Good growth across all divisions.

Even if we simply just assume basic EPS of 20p for the full year these are on a PE of only nine.
As yump says above, and i concur, if they have a good Christmas season then they are likely to exceed these forecasts even more.

[yump] 27/11/2017 07:24

They mention that Christmas season is a critical period and I had a look at the admission doc. to see if there's a jump in sales in the second half in the past, but there are only annual results there as far as I can see. Seeing as they were confident of exceeding forecasts for the year, I wonder if we can assume that they might, if Christmas is good, exceed them even more... ?