Quiz Share Discussion Threads

[tomboyb] 16/1/2019 08:28

Well I've taken on a few more here as well -

Once that seller has cleared then it could be different here -

[nitbhav06] 16/1/2019 08:16

If you've got a 5 year+ investment horizon, this is dirt cheap. I'm hoping for another dip and I'll keep adding to my position.

[sunnybeachboy] 15/1/2019 16:14

Bid 23.6Ask 24

[sunnybeachboy] 15/1/2019 13:33

Bid 23.3Ask 23.5On the move

[kcr69] 15/1/2019 10:39

In which case I shall live in happy delusion in the knowledge that a minimum of £7m can be reinvested in the business on an annual basis or returned to shareholders as appropriate without the need to raise funds or dilute cash balances. Dreadful situation I know.

[orinocor] 15/1/2019 10:12

Cash profit? You are deluded. This company does not make any money. It all goes into capital expenditure

[podgyted] 15/1/2019 10:11

1m shares at 23p.

[kcr69] 15/1/2019 10:04

SteMis, re #615, not only an amateur analyst, a would be psychologist and an unwitting master of irony too.

I assume you are not aware that in your slightly hostile post, you portrayed a position that did in fact agree with everything I had suggested.

At the lower end of your central costs ‘analysis̵7;, and based on all other figures you have quoted, concessions in Debenhams would make a £0.11m loss. At the higher end of your central costs, concessions in Debenhams would make a £0.36m loss. Both based on pre-tax profit and following the apportionment of fixed costs and D&A in line with revenue at 13.6% to total.

For future reference, it is futile to try and debate marginal contributions with so many variable costs and the apportionment of costs specific to the retailer unknown. The ‘analysis̵7; was simply crude, fictional and resulted in an ultimately inadequate means of trying to prove a point. Without segmental (or even unit) detail of marginal cost and apportionment of fixed costs, any example of marginal contribution is at best worthless.

With regard to, “Except there is very little evidence for kcr69's analysis”. Interesting. Very little basis with the exception of

1. The facts outlined in the admissions document.
2. Segmental trends within the Quiz business over the past 18 months.
3. The small matter of a 15% - 20% divergence between revenue performance of the wider Quiz Group and the Debenhams Group over the past 9 – 12 months.

Now, you may genuinely believe that Quiz have a concession model that is the envy of the retailing world, and are miraculously bucking a regression in footfall which is clearly evident in Debenhams, or conversely that the 20 point revenue gap would have no bearing on the bottom line of concessions particularly with it being accompanied by a 25% increase in central costs, however my gut feeling is that even your closest friends may start to question your sanity.

The point is, as alluded to in my earlier post, there is in fact compelling evidence to suggest both a reducing revenue reliance, and decreasing profit contribution from concessions in Debenhams.

Finally, if you had simply stated that the post tax income line on the P&L is going to look pretty ugly for H2 and FY19 then I would have wholeheartedly agreed with you. I have personally pencilled in £0.8m and £3.9m, a decrease on the year of -79% and -43% respectively. The root cause of this performance being a cost set up to deliver revenue in the region of £145m - £155m (consensus broker estimates) as opposed to the likely return of circa £131m - £133m.

This however should not detract from the fact that the above will equate to circa £7m cash profit for the year on the back of what has been a decent sales performance relative to the competitive peer group (for those that fail to recognize cash [or adjusted] profit over income on the P&L I suggest a little chat with Jeff Bezos).

With that in mind I reiterate my point that the current valuation of circa 2x cash profit is nothing short of bonkers given how well the business is financed, self-sufficient and invested operationally.

A baseline price of 55p would represent 8 x cash profit (plus net cash) based on this years likely out-turn. Given the current uncertainties within the macroeconomic climate, offset against the myriad of opportunities available to Quiz both home and abroad, and with more prudent short term forecasting and cost management, this remains a conviction buy and add for me personally, irrelevant of short term market action.

[sunnybeachboy] 15/1/2019 09:59

Price being held down to fill big orders imo..... what do others think....

[gspanner] 15/1/2019 08:48

Some would argue it is going perfectly for them. Bring it on!

[hamidahamida] 15/1/2019 07:56

Directors trousered GBP90 Million when they floated Quiz and still own through different family members circa 54%Even a bid at a hefty premium say 50p they can go private at less than 30 million and still have plenty of money left from the float.. Not bad for years work

[glenbo1] 15/1/2019 07:51

A lot of shirts closed yesterday here.Should recover

[smithless] 15/1/2019 07:45

onjohn - you mention directors not buying. As they hold nearly 30% of the company, it would be difficult to buy anymore without getting a white wash from the LSE. To buy without, would require them to make a mandatory bid at a much higher price than what it is today.

[yump] 14/1/2019 16:43

SteMiS

Eeek !

Well at least that's two posts with something worth reading in them ;-)

Very controversial of you to mention profitability.

I guess it would be much better if they hadn't ramped up the central overheads, then could perhaps look forward to a profit recovery, once the 'hit' is out of the way, even if there's a year or so of struggle.

The more difficult calc. would be to guesstimate how long it will take for online sales to compensate for DEB loss and use up the overhead resources previously planned (presumably) for a stable future.

[onjohn] 14/1/2019 16:42

Shorts closing

Will warn again and dip to 10p



Directors arent buying because they want to buy it for nothing from receivers

[sunnybeachboy] 14/1/2019 16:39

Ask 24.9 on close

[stemis] 14/1/2019 14:00

Except there is very little evidence for kcr69's analysis. It falls under, I'd like the impact to be little, so I'll assume it's little and my analysis therefore shows that it's little.

Here's another analysis for you:-

H2 - Sales £66m, EBITDA £2.6m. Profit ~£0.6m (assuming depn £2m)
Central costs - got to be running at 6-8 million a year easily, so marginal contribution of turnover is 10% min. No reason to believe DEB concessions less profitable than anything else.

Deb concession sales in H2, say £9m. 10% of turnover ~£0.9m

Without Debenham concessions, probably made a loss in H2.

[yump] 14/1/2019 13:31

Yes, funnily enough we can see that without you cluttering up the thread. Why don't you start one of your own for all the numpties that can just about type 'bid' or 'ask' and a number of pence.

[sunnybeachboy] 14/1/2019 12:54

Bid increased 22.7pAsk 23p