Quiz Share Discussion Threads

[barvin] 19/12/2018 09:37

I have made my Debs revenue forecast in previous posts.

Debs had 461 items listed on their website in Nov 16, in Nov 18 it was 1238 - just under 3 times higher. Based on a stock-sales ratio, I suspect it's far higher than the revenues others tend to post. See data source below:





"At the end of the period, QUIZ had 70 stores and 160 concessions in the UK" Debenhams stores were listed as 110 from this list, there are 25 "other" Concessions listed


It isn't just the outstanding money owed or lost sales going forward, it is the unused warehouse capacity, pre-ordered manufactured lines, higher buying costs due to lower volumes, lower brand visibility and then Mike probably knocking the price down to £2 a piece that damages the brand and also ends up as a destination where people buy from Debs clearance as opposed to the Quiz website for a short period of time. You can see from the brand list on the Debenhams website, that Quiz has one of the highest amount of lines listed.

[kcr69] 19/12/2018 09:31

spob.

In FY17 Debenhams concessions accounted for £18m out of £24m concessions revenue, with UK store revenue at £33.5m giving total UK store and concessions revenue of £57.5m. This was the last point in time concession revenue was split out of total UK store and concession revenue, and since then the segmental split of revenue has changed enormously.

Outside of seeing if the company will provide you with an up to date split then you need to make your own mind up, however given what we know about openings / closures and the performance of Debenhams in totality, I would suggest that concessions in Debenhams may have increased to circa £19.0m - £19.5m in FY18 slightly behind overall UK (non online) performance, but in all likelihood will drop back to £18m or lower in FY19, hence a maximum of 13% to total revenue. I would also suggest that profitability as a % of revenue would be lower again given the cost make up and likely apportionment of costs of the different selling channels.

At the end of the day, the Debenhams issue is most definitely an irritation which may disproportionately impact the price in the short term, however even if it were to go bust, its medium term impact will only be marginal given the current direction of segmental revenue growth.

Thats about all I can do to help you I am afraid.

[spob] 19/12/2018 09:14

Total uk store and concession revenue was 65m last annual report

I'd really like to know an up to date figure for how much of that comes from Debenhams

Given the possibility of Debenhams going bust

[hamidahamida] 19/12/2018 09:02

Sp is up why it's not showing on advfn

[hamidahamida] 19/12/2018 09:01

IMO knowing the problems DEB is in Quiz probably done risk management after HOF loss and cut down on DEB concessions So the exposure will be a lot lower imo

[kcr69] 19/12/2018 08:57

spob. Last stated figures were as at 31/03/17 where concessions in Debenhams were worth £18m revenue. Make your own mind up but given closures, openings and segmental performance I can't see them being much more than that today - so circa 13% maximum.

[spob] 19/12/2018 07:10

What percentage of total revenues come from Debenhams concessions ?

[kcr69] 18/12/2018 17:45

SpectoAcc

Clearly the founding family still own nigh on 50% between them so they can probably be excused for not adding to their tally.

Like you however I am a little surprised that some of the non executives and non family board members haven't added given their rather meagre holdings of less than 150,000 between them (as of 31/03/18). Having said that there could be a multitude of reasons why of which not one is related to the performance of the business.

I try to avoid conspiracy theories when it comes to director buying and selling (while appreciating it does impact sentiment both positively and negatively) however if it is a positive, then along with no buying there hasn't been any selling either.

Kaka47, while I have made it clear that I don't think Debenhams going under would be the catastrophe some would make out, it would definitely have a greater impact than HOF. As of 31/03/17 Debenhams apparently accounted for 75% of concession sales. On that metric it would continue to suggest an EBITDA impact of around £1.2m to £1.5m rather than the £0.4m for HOF. I could be wrong of course.

[kaka47] 18/12/2018 15:45

Keep it up

[spectoacc] 18/12/2018 15:16

@kcr69 - agree but for one thing - why no director buying, particularly after the interims when presumably it was no longer a closed period?

[kcr69] 18/12/2018 15:14

SpectoAcc. To be honest the recent warnings and statements from ASOS and others has actually increased my own confidence levels in how Quiz is performing. I was initially a little disappointed at the 10% growth through October / November, however subsequent announcements from other retailers have put the strength of those numbers into context.

There is no doubt that the retail sector is going through a difficult period right now and I don't see that ending in the short term, however Quiz is a strong operational business with a solid executive and non executive board.

The Debenhams situation is not ideal and is clearly causing an over reaction in the selling price to the down side, primarily as no one actually knows the specifics of the potential impact. There is enough data out there however to suggest it will be no more than £18m - £20m revenue and £1.5m EBITDA top end. This I am sure will become clearer in the not too distant future one way or another.

Plenty of opportunity in these fragile markets for those subscribed to scaremongering all the same. I tend to ignore unless substantiated.

[kaka47] 18/12/2018 15:12

HOF right off was 400k so if DEB go under it will be similar imoI am pretty sure QUIZ are already being careful in regards to DEB

[spectoacc] 18/12/2018 14:54

Thanks @kcr69. Was interesting to see BOO say trading "comfortably in line" on same day of ASC warning.

[barvin] 18/12/2018 14:45

I've made my case in previous posts and you have made yours. I am not going to argue, people can make of it what they will. Your £ EBITDA figure is so off I am not even going to justify crunching numbers again.

Until trading is made clear by Quiz and we see how Debenhams are fairing it is still worth holding off imo - this looks fair value and worth a punt at 20p level but until Debs situation (CVA or Admin) is resolved that will plague this stock. The knock on reaction to Debs going bust will hit this price big time, it will be an overreaction but it will be there and the subsequent profits warning.

[kcr69] 18/12/2018 14:33

Highly intelligent response. Many thanks. I am sure you will be only too willing to qualify your own numerical definition of what doesn't constitute 'cloud cuckoo land', along with how you managed to get concessions in Debenhams to £27m from £18m in FY17. Maybe then we can have a sensible discussion. Should I refer to you as pal?

[barvin] 18/12/2018 14:25

Circa £9m - £10m EBITDA, you are living in cloud cuckoo land pal

[kcr69] 18/12/2018 14:10

Barvin,

In reality concessions in Debenhams are unlikely to make up more than 13% - 14% of revenue and probably more likely closer to 11% to 12% given the overall performance of Debenhams in the past two years. (Debenhams concessions were worth £18m in FY17 and given the subsequent segmental performance and store openings / closures are unlikely to have increased from that level).

I would go further to add that on that basis, I cannot see Debenhams concessions amounting to any more than 10% of EBITDA. Clearly losing £1.5m of EBITDA if Debenhams goes belly up is not ideal, but hardly the catastrophe that some may want to portray.

Even with Debenhams going into administration and if Quiz were to have an absolutely dreadful December and Q4, I would still expect a current run rate of circa £9m - £10m EBITDA.

Of course the price may go lower given the level of indiscriminate selling in the markets at the moment, however this is ludicrously cheap at these prices. And for the record, any retailer delivering 8% - 9% EBITDA off a growing revenue in today's market is quite frankly a pretty impressive operation.

[robizm] 18/12/2018 11:08

If if and if lets see what happens after Xmas. Just off to Debs now for some presents

[barvin] 18/12/2018 10:28

If Mike Ashley gets hold of Debenhams, I can say with 99% confidence that he will not continue with Quiz going forward. Why do I say that?

Because Peter Cowgill( JD Sports CEO) - who he cannot stand and has been battling with for years - is the Chairman at Quiz. It wouldn't surprise me after he got hold of Debs, he then marked all Quiz clothing at a £1 each just to damage the brand.

Half of their listed stores are Debenhams concessions, so any headline that Debenhams is going down will cause an immediate and likely overegged share price drop. In reality, that Debs half probably brings about 20% of total revenue.

[hamidahamida] 18/12/2018 08:31

OUTLOOK AND CURRENT TRADINGThe QUIZ brand is distinctive, has broad appeal and is increasingly recognised by a growing customer base for selling quality occasion wear and dressy casual wear at fantastic value. The continued expansion of QUIZ through our own websites as well as the growth we have delivered through our standalone stores is encouraging and confirms the appeal of the brand as well as the benefits of the Group's omni-channel model.Since the end of H1 2019 we have continued to grow Group sales. In the eight weeks to 24 November 2018, sales (excluding international franchise sales which are wholesale in nature and therefore, can fluctuate from month to month) are up 10% year on year. This growth has been underpinned by particularly strong sales growth through the brand's own websites of 62%.Whilst the Group's full year results will, as always, be in part dependent on trading during the key Christmas period, we believe the Group is well positioned to deliver long-term profitable growth.

[hamidahamida] 18/12/2018 08:12

XMAS TU ON 10 JAN RETAILERS ARE SUFFERING BIG TIME HAS THE WARNING PRICED IN OR NOT WE WILL FINDOUTIMO 90% 2nd WARNING PRICED IN

[lbo] 18/12/2018 07:51

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6506103/Troubled-online-stories-begin-panic-selling-bid-drum-business.html

[onjohn] 18/12/2018 07:36

One question only


Mate, when is the profit warning. Is it before Christmas or after?

[hamidahamida] 18/12/2018 07:29

Email Quiz for your question [e-mail] them to forward your email toTarak Ramzan and Haris Ramzan Quiz telephone [phone]