Purplebricks Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 07/12/2018 17:33

PURP moving on Emoov would have been a good PR move

They have missed the boat IMO that just might have sailed them into credibility cove

Could have bought the ticket for a quid

[elcapital2018] 07/12/2018 17:31

Numb nuts

Can you concede that if you had gone along with TW on SGH, Globo, QPP and PURP, you would be better off?

This is a very important question, so we can judge just how stupid you are

[rogthepodge] 07/12/2018 17:21

I think we need a list of T.W. howlers.
He seems more than happy to point out those of others!

[ltcm1] 07/12/2018 15:02

Wouldn't want to be holding these over the weekend.

Rog if Brexit goes bad even Monday could be too late.

Can't believe you didn't sell at 500p like ElCap advised.

I think we should nickname you Cable and Wireless :)

[ltcm1] 07/12/2018 14:54

Shouldn't that be a sinkhole though???

[philosopherad1] 07/12/2018 09:13

Appears to be a 'whoopi' cushion to me Stan. Also; Dave plumtree 'top boy' Connell & Sequins???There's two top boys there and their names are Shippo & Livesey. Everyone else just does as they're told!!!

[cowtrader] 07/12/2018 09:04

fair points bbmsionlypostafter. put ones feet in the shoes of an LPE - imagine not earning much money when you have mortgage and bills to pay. for most, dipping into savings can only last so long..... ultimate downside is around 27p..... the current share price and market cap is built on a wing and a prayer.... With results due at end of next week.... This is what I expect & nothing less: UK to have turned a small profit but all of it swallowed up by widening group losses.... they are reaping what they sow from trying to run before they can walk in expanding too quickly...... Someone please prove me wrong!!!!!!!!!!!

[bbmsionlypostafter] 07/12/2018 08:44

Business model doesn't work, w/out unsustainable advertising costs it disappears off the radar in about a week, slowing market in the UK, US & Oz (when will OZ close down?), bad word of mouth build up heading to tsunami levels as more mugs pay up front for nothing, LPEs leave as sales dry up & they can't work for peanuts & on & on & on = much more pain to come here.

Really struggling to see anything good here or any value.

65p by March.

[stantini] 07/12/2018 08:32

Sweet Karolina

The cash burn is even worse - at financial year end in 2017 Purplebricks accounts showed they had 70M cash.


At financial year end this year Purplebricks accounts showed they had 150M cash. But Axel Springer had given them an injection of 125M a few months before, so without this their 'cash' pile would have been only 25M.


So to drop 70M to 25M shows underlying problem with model, as in the period of last year in UK alone 96M positive cashflow into the business from vendors paying £1,250 on average upfront.


I do not think any big investor will be buying a chunk of Purplebricks in next 12 months and yes - they have a cushion of cash - but if the share price continues to tumble, and the clamour to see what percentage of clients paying up front lose their money as the agent does not perform - there may well be a very difficult time.


David Plumtree top boy at Connells/Sequence who had Hatched, had the foresight to pull the plug on Hatched, it was a mature online operation and with his group having profits of around 70M this year they could have kept supporting it - but the cost base just did not add up.

[elcapital2018] 07/12/2018 07:48

rog....youre not long....youre short and fat lol

[stantini] 07/12/2018 01:01

WHICH BRINGS US BACK TO THE BEGINNING

hxxps://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2018/11/online-agencies-sales-conversion-rates-revealed-by-analyst?source=trending

'An estate agency analyst has shared with Estate Agent Today his findings on the current and recent conversion rates of online agencies.

He says that out of some 1.5m homes marketed in the past 12 months, only 100,000 were handled by online agencies. “Although the media loves to talk about cheap fees and online agents, in fact the general public are using the traditional approach” he adds.

Using Rightmove data from yesterday - Tuesday November 13 - he has also given a market snapshot of six major online brands (two under the ownership of Emoov). According to his calculations these are:

Doorsteps - 2,054 properties listed, 1,321 for sale, 733 under offer not exchanged, 28% conversion of listed to sold subject to contract.(Minus 30% cancellation rate gives exchange rate.)

Yopa - 5,501 properties listed, 3,539 for sale, 1,962 under offer not exchanged, 35% conversion rate.(Minus 30% cancellation rate gives exchange rate.)

Purplebricks - 37,531 properties listed, 21,142 for sale, 16,389 under offer, 43% conversion rate. (Minus 30% cancellation rate gives exchange rate.)

Emoov - 2,504 properties listed, 1,696 for sale, 808 under offer, 32% conversion rate.(Minus 30% cancellation rate gives exchange rate.)

Tepilo (owned by Emoov) - 1,740 properties listed, 1,162 for sale, 587 under offer, 33% conversion rate. (Minus 30% cancellation rate gives exchange rate.)

HouseSimple - 1,140 properties listed, 763 for sale, 341 under offer, 30% conversion rate. (Minus 30% cancellation rate gives exchange rate.)'


Now of course … there are only 4 agents … and PB results will soon be published.

[stantini] 07/12/2018 00:49

A leading digital analyst says Purplebricks’ success in the US market is not assured and has expressed concern over whether it is the right fit for some of the locations in which it has launched in the States.
Purplebricks’ long-term viability is under scrutiny now in the UK, with trading figures scheduled to be released next week and the online sector still reeling from the collapse of Emoov.
Mike DelPrete - former head of strategy at the property portal Trade Me in New Zealand and now a respected international real estate consultant - says on his analysis of Purplebricks’ full year figures in the summer, he estimated it had spent around $21,000 per listing.
Now DelPrete has now looked particularly at Purplebricks’ activities in Pheonix where, he says, the agency had a slow start when it launched in June.
He says it is averaging “a few dozen” new listings per month. “With a listing fee of $3,600, that's around $75,000 in revenue for November.
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He notes: “Purplebricks is also struggling to recruit and retain brokers in Phoenix. Agent numbers are stagnant, and the average number of listings per broker is two. If we assume a broker is paid $1,000 of the $3,600 listing fee, that's a very low effective annual pay package.”








"Purplebricks' success in the US is not assured" says top analystDelprete

Article in Estate Agency News - 1 Hour ago

hxxps://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2018/12/purplebricks-success-in-the-us-market-is-not-assured-says-top-analyst

However, he still believes that Phoenix is the right market for Purplebricks and is possibly better suited than some other US locations in which the agency operates.

He insists that the housing market and demographics for Phoenix make it “the sweet spot for the fixed-fee proposition.”

But he cautions that Purplebricks is just one of a number of new disruptive forces in the US residential real estate market,

“After five months in Phoenix, 75 total listings is a comparative drop in the bucket. If Purplebricks wants to make a dent in the US, these numbers need to be in the hundreds and thousands” says DelPrete, adding that there agency’s success Stateside is not guaranteed.

“Raising a lot of money doesn't guarantee success. And an organic pathway to growth takes large amounts of time, patience, and capital. Execution of this model is very much market-specific, and a lot of hard work. The business model scales linearly with people; technology is just an enabler” he insists.

[andy] 07/12/2018 00:40

SK,

LOL! Very good.


Some interesting questions emerge about PURP's "success rate" claims.

[rogthepodge] 07/12/2018 00:30

you pays your money and you takes your choice

you are short

but I am long

time will tell

[sweet karolina] 07/12/2018 00:08

There are a number of conflicting figures in that report

"81% of listings sold within 12 months" But you only get 10 months for your fee so indeed was it PURP or someone else that sold them and was it just one fee.

"159.2 days from instruction to completion" - that would be an average what is the standard deviation? There seems to be a lot of quick ones then a long tail.

The chart shows about 63,000 NIs, 48,000 SSTC (just over 75%) and 39,000 exchanges (just over 60%)

"Between May 2017 and April 2018, Purplebricks had the largest conversion ratio (SSTC / NI) of any other of the leading 20 estate agent brands in the UK at just over 75%"

"Looking at a cohort of New Instructions in May 2017 we can see that Purplebricks are the best at selling properties from month 1, with 50% of instructions already sold by June 2018." - indicates that the houses are selling themselves possibly because they has no onward chain.


All this whilst the market was still buoyant. PURP made a tiny profit in UK with these great figures. PURP have achieved nothing like this in Oz and US, which indicates what will happen in UK as the UK market follows what is happening in Oz and US.

The time it will take for PURP to burn through its cash pile depends on how much more they pour into the unfolding disasters in Oz and US and how soon and how badly the tiny UK profit turns back into growing losses. My guess is PURP will need more cash in 18 months - 2 years (even the perennially overoptimistic forecasts are predicting major losses this year and next). Will AS provide more? I can't see NW being in a position to bail it out by then.

[rogthepodge] 06/12/2018 23:36

utter drivel above

[henchard] 06/12/2018 23:22

The fact that PURP has never been willing to disclose how many properties it actually SELLS speaks volumes in my opinion.

[stantini] 06/12/2018 23:13

Here is the TwentyCi link showing conversion rate is apparently 81% of Purplebricks instructions to sales or is it?

hxxps://pbinvestmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/presentation/media_url/105/Findings_from_Twenty_Ci_Data_May_17_April_18.pdf

[stantini] 06/12/2018 22:13

Exclusive data provided to us by TwentyCi … around 53% went on to be sold subject to contract.If that was true then 30% cancel as that is standard fall through rate, so in fact only 38% get to exchange.

If you look at the last yearly satement / accounts of Purple Bricks, there is a section by TwentyCi who state that 81% of instructions taken by Purple Bricks go on to be sold. But by whom? Purple Bricks or a second or third agent who lists them at a later date?

Well worth digging this report out. I think it is on the PB website if you log in for a copy.

[sweet karolina] 06/12/2018 22:06

Using fixed fee for fixed time is basically a gamble. ASA should force them to make the situation clear and provide regular updates on the odds. As I have said before the current situation lays them open to mis-selling claims further down the line.

[stantini] 06/12/2018 22:01

You two are priceless … I was out walking the dog Zara to be fair so had no signal.

This means Purplebricks conversion rate can not be 81% of instructions listed to sold and completed property sales.

If I am correct they are charging 100% of clients in the knowledge that 48% of them will not get an exchange, in my mind they should put this warning on the marketing literature and TV and other media advertising.

So that is a whopping 1 in 2 clients getting nothing. a bit like saying I will put a double glazed window in for £1,000 up front, and then only putting a window in for every second client - I think trading standards would be upset.