Puretech Health Share Discussion Threads

[kingston78] 12/11/2024 09:13

My target is 220 p, being slightly more conservative than the 238 p at the top of the range.

[ohisay] 12/11/2024 07:42

And on most technical measures its a clear BUY now.

[takeiteasy] 12/11/2024 04:26

c.10Bn dollars added to BMY market value on the back of this news, a substantial part of the Karuna cost - reinforces quite how significant this has been in the market place....nai etc

[takeiteasy] 11/11/2024 19:04

The issue was that the drug failed both phase 2 trials - some more detailed comments attached...

hxxps://www.biospace.com/drug-development/abbvie-shares-plummet-12-as-cerevel-schizophrenia-asset-fails-phase-ii-trials

Analysts expressed surprise at the failure in both studies. AbbVie had been testing the drug in the EMPOWER program for patients with schizophrenia who are experiencing an acute exacerbation.

“While we always thought the prior [Phase Ib] . . . plausibly overestimated the effect size of the drug, it’s outright surprising to see it flat out fail in both pivotal [Phase IIbs],” wrote Stifel’s analysts in an early Monday note to clients.

The failure is a blow to AbbVie’s strategy. At the time of its Cerevel transaction at the end of last year, AbbVie touted emraclidine as having “the potential to transform the standard of care in schizophrenia and other psychiatric conditions.” Guggenheim Securities had previously predicted that sales of emraclidine could reach $1.5 billion by 2033.

Big Win for BMS
While AbbVie regroups, Bristol Myers Squibb will face little near-term pressure on the schizophrenia market for its recently approved Cobenfy, previously known as KarXT, which was picked up through the $14 billion acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics around the same time as AbbVie’s Cerevel buy. BMO said AbbVie’s failure “points to an even clearer win for Bristol.” Truist predicts that peak sales for Cobenfy could hit $4 billion. Revenue could start trickling in by the second half of 2025.

Emraclidine and Cobenfy both belong to the muscarinic class.

“Exactly how KarXT works is an open question (it’s a bit of a promiscuous drug),” said Stifel. But it targets the M1 and M4 receptors, while AbbVie’s candidate only targets M4

[hatfullofsky] 11/11/2024 18:31

However :

Some analysts had expected emraclidine to bring in more than $1 billion in revenue for AbbVie.

Which is strange to wipe $30bn of the MCAP for losing a potential $1bn in sales, makes no sense

[hatfullofsky] 11/11/2024 18:12

Could be that or Launch news [Cobenfy] planned late October 2024.

[edwardt] 11/11/2024 17:26

shares in AbbVie dropped nearly 11 per cent on Monday after the drugmaker revealed that an experimental treatment for schizophrenia, purchased as part of an $8.7bn acquisition last year, failed to meet its goals in clinical trials.

The Chicago-based drugmaker said its schizophrenia drug Emracladine failed to show “a statistically significant reduction” in psychotic symptoms, compared with the placebo group, in a phase-two trial.

Roopal Thakkar, Abbvie’s chief scientific officer, said the company was “disappointed” and would continue to analyse the data to determine next steps. The announcement is a blow to AbbVie, which spent $8.7bn on biotech Cerevel Therapeutics to get its hands on Emracladine.

[edwardt] 11/11/2024 15:49

instead of $3bn in sales in US could be 6 - think we get 66% of royalties about 2bn

[takeiteasy] 11/11/2024 15:31

BMY has shot up too :)

[edwardt] 11/11/2024 15:05

that will be it.

[sspurt] 11/11/2024 15:04

Abbvie schizo drugs trials failure prob reason.

[the shuffle man] 11/11/2024 14:49

Looks like sector back in favor today as SYNC is also up :-)

[takeiteasy] 11/11/2024 14:32

fake out or a real break out :)

[edwardt] 11/11/2024 14:02

oi oi - something up.

[brianblu] 11/11/2024 13:48

Expecting a holdings rns soon buyer and seller

[edwardt] 10/11/2024 16:50

Part of the deal included sub license fees - so hopefully this sort of deal will add to the growing likely cash pile

[takeiteasy] 10/11/2024 15:14

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/zai-lab-positive-outcomes-karxt-phase-iii-trial/karuna spreading wings to China with their new drug - all positive it seems ...

[edwardt] 07/11/2024 12:21

royalty pharma think they cobenfy will do $3bn sales by 2030. chimes well with BMS etc

[edwardt] 06/11/2024 12:16

trump got to be a positive here.

[colinblackbourn] 02/11/2024 09:43

Cobenfy is listed in this weeks Time magazine as one of the top 200 inventions of 2024

[colinblackbourn] 01/11/2024 09:52

Should be fireworks in November .Two investor conferences coming up.

[edwardt] 01/11/2024 09:23

sounds like good news to me! i have read that US could be $3bn in sales alone. ROW could be the same. Also the trials for bipolar and alzheimers could truly mean we get an equivalent yield on royalties of 100% of today's market cap 5 to 10 years out