Purecircle Share Discussion Threads

[smarm] 08/10/2009 11:55

Hi folks - I abandoned PURE when Evil started to short. A) he has been known to be right and B) why fight the marauding crowd. The results were excellent but it's all in the price (as spotted by Mr Evil). It is all summed up by saying that the pieces of the puzzle are all in place, now we wait to find out how big the market really is. There is much scope for disappointment.

I wait for the price to appear better value, either by higher sales or lower price.

S

[valustar1] 07/10/2009 10:04

Does any one know when and where the AGM is

[sleveen] 07/10/2009 09:07

I heard on the radio this morning that the price of sugar has doubled over the last 12 months...it may make Rab A a better commercial proposition as well as a diet option

[nurdin] 06/10/2009 14:34

Bought back a few..reckon these are due a big bounce :o)

[haroldthegreat] 06/10/2009 12:32

its being shorted, once positive news of new product launches are announced it will soar again. its a good long term bet imho

[sleveen] 05/10/2009 16:45

IC said it was good value @ 250p no wonder PURE has tanked :-)

[sheeneqa] 05/10/2009 14:37

Tight railing stop loss is the secret, locks in any profit or gets you out of losers pronto...

Looks like a buy to me sub 2 quid, would wager a few shorters at work...
This could turn on a dime like last time very quickly.

* All product launches are outperforming their categories: albeit so far just
niche products and small volumes
* Step change achieved in the planned diversification of our customer base
* Global sales and marketing organisation established
* Stevia extract capacity quadrupled; believed to be over 50% of the total
industry capacity
* Major $35m factory expansion commissioned within 21 months of project starting
* Leaf supply diversified: leaf now being grown on three continents for PureCircle
* Group executive management team strengthened with key international hires; all
drawn from relevant F&B multinationals
* Transformational year of investment: over $63m invested in operating assets. As
planned, the investments made have taken Group into net debt position
* New 5 year banking facilities negotiated May 2009 provide significant funding
headroom
* Strong opening leaf inventories will reduce the FY 2010 working capital
inventory requirements
* Strong opportunities sales pipeline in all geographies
* September 2009 French clearance suggests European momentum increasing
* Significant roll-out of new launches and new categories not expected until
calendar 2010
* Strong growth prospects over the next 3-5 years; the pace of shorter term sales
depends on the rate of new product launches to market.

[spudders] 03/10/2009 13:11

Felix- Thanks for your view & I will take a look at others. Think I will ride it out for now, in for the long as a small holding.

Pretty sure this is being shorted or maybe its just profit taking bwdik.

I do not believe we are seeing a major correction in general, just a shake to weed out weak holders so the big players can get their fill.

Good luck :)

[felix99] 03/10/2009 13:05

You may have a point there. I have been concentrating on the rating but I see they spent $60m US last year buying things and running up inventories and debts. Net cash year before was $17m US and they now have net debt of $45m odd.

Thats a big chunk of money to service and a big punt to take on leaf demand happening quickly. If it doesnt they could be caught short and so yes a rights would make sense. What price for investors then as I guess if that is reason for fall the share price will get taken down to the placing price. £2 does seem a nice round number.

[sleveen] 03/10/2009 07:34

I wonder if a share placing is doing the rounds eg 10m shares @200p to raise £20m to bolster the balance sheet. If I was an insti and had the opportunity to sell above 200p and buy back via the placing shares @200p I think I would.

Just a thought.

[spudders] 02/10/2009 17:57

Surely the finals were not that bad. Shorted again by Evil ???

[foodcritic] 02/10/2009 17:54

First time I've seen IC comment on PURE. Can't type out the whole article before anyone asks as it's Friday night and I have better things to do like drinking beer. Anyhow it says nothing new.

Summary bit: Purecircle has come a long way in a short space of time and, considering the next stage of it's growth is more reliant on outside factors, it's shares will remain volatile. Trading on 16 times forward earnings, falling to nine times in 2011 as volumes ramp up, the shares are speculative good value.

[angusf27] 29/9/2009 12:00

To clarify the previous post which was intended as a positive,the multinationals focus group their brand reformulations and launches and are publicly committed to calorie reduction and natural platform because their consumers are. The products already on the market and those that will be launching, have been carefully developed to work as the current innovation climate only allows for high success percentages.

Reb A 97 of 2009 is a viable sweetening ingredient and does not compare to the crude extract of previous generations. I recommend any interested parties try the products on the US or international markets. They work well and much better than synthetic tasting sweeteners. The only issue here is time to market and the trajectory of the takeoff and Reb A IS taking off. It is an excellent and revolutionary product that has already been announced as available to the beverage industry at the same price as sugar for global volume. The major flavour houses have also publicly stated in the last month that the ingredient is now viable for many food and beverage applications including,on Friday, ice cream.

[cnx] 28/9/2009 16:38

felix

thanks.......your points support my concerns

[angusf27] 28/9/2009 09:58

Existing products containing Reb A in the US are selling beyond expectation and tabletop products have achieved record penetration. The same analyst is predicting retail sales value of $2 bn by 2010 in the US! This was one of the small caveats and T's in the Mintel SWOT analysis in an otherwise very bullish study of the Reb A opportunity. Essentially he is saying that if a consumer doesn't like the taste of a Reb A product, they won't buy stevia products. Let's give the multinational F&B industry some credit here. They know their business. How many posters here have actually tried the products on the US market?

[louisr2] 24/9/2009 09:30

Finding the perfect stevia blend – natural or not
By Caroline Scott-Thomas, 22-Sep-2009
The first stevia-sweetened products have begun to emerge, but until the sweetener blend is perfected, they could potentially harm consumers' interest in stevia, said a senior analyst at Mintel.

[felix99] 23/9/2009 14:48

Just do a google news alert on Stevia - I haven;t kept the links and alerts I have had over last 12 months or so but there are many competitors with their own versions of Stevia sweeteners which compete with PURE and I remember a few weeks back some American outfit trumpeting that they had doubled, quadrupled their Stevia capacity from a processing point of view.

I know that PURE reckon they have stitched up supplies of leaf but there seem to be many players all claiming similar things

It all just looks ot me like Jam tomorrow which is not going to arrive quick enough to justify the rating of PURE and others at present

Its a good company and good product etc etc I just think shareprice is well ahead of where it should be - its seems a lot of hype to me and people dreaming that overnight diet coke, diet pepsi etc will just dump asphartame or whatever and go for Stevia.

For one thing I bet if you ask the question as to how much Stevia leaf would be required if all these big volume brands switched - it will probably be many many multiples of the leaf available which means they could not for the foreseable future even consider doing this.

Add to this the fact that diet coke or wahtever from Stevia will inevitably have a different taste to what people are used to and there will defiintely be no massive switch by punters quickly. Do you remeber what happened when Coke played around with the taste slightly a few years back ??? .

[cnx] 23/9/2009 13:04

felix

what are the names of "loads of other players putting on capacity"?

it has always been a concern to me whether pure has a enough capacity (both financial and manufacturing) to become a major player in the food inustry

[sheeneqa] 23/9/2009 10:23

.

Results look fine to me, might be another short attack by the swingers(cat) and the gang, might be a good time to buy if it dips lower.

Long term this company will suceed.

[felix99] 23/9/2009 08:33

what 8.5 c EPS was it . and a smattering of statements all over the place:-



"All product launches are outperforming their categories: albeit so far just niche products and small volumes

Significant roll-out of new launches and new categories not expected until calendar 2010

Strong growth prospects over the next 3-5 years; the pace of shorter term sales depends on the rate of new product launches to market.

In the short term volume take-up depends on the speed of our customers getting new products to market. These launches will inevitably be tougher to programme against the current economic backdrop. Sales growth may therefore be volatile. We are hard at work supporting our customers on the development of larger volume products that will trigger use of Reb A in mass market products. We expect the world's F&B companies to increase the rate of launches using Reb A during calendar 2010 and 2011. Growing concerns about the levels of consumer obesity, about the safety of artificial sweeteners and the unpredictability of sugar prices can only support and encourage the development of the NHIS market in which PureCircle intends to remain the leader.


Nice , company , good product but crazy p/e for near zero growth in the next year perhaps 2 . Its all spelt out for you , caveats everywhere in the RNS.

Wait till the yanks buying this have their reality check at 2pm or so lol

Most conservative forecast is for EPS to grow to 15p in 2010 - will it happen though?

One lot have EPS forecast of 41p rofl.

and for that you are buying this on a currnet p/e of 50!


Oh and I forgot to add the first mover advantage will be long gone by the time the real volumes come onto the market. Loads of other players putting on capacity

[spudders] 23/9/2009 07:06

Finals are out on rns service. Not had a good look yet but first impressions very possitive.

[haroldthegreat] 22/9/2009 11:41

going up again , good soon more people will latch on to the products potential

[angusf27] 22/9/2009 09:42

Stevia market to break $100 million this year

New research reveals consumer trial, acceptance still lag behind

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--It's stevia's year. All-natural and calorie-free, stevia is poised to become the "holy grail" of sweeteners, says a new report from Mintel.

Since December 2008, when the FDA approved use of rebaudioside A (an active ingredient of stevia) in US food and beverage, the stevia market* has erupted. By mid-July 2009, stevia sales topped $95 million, a substantial increase over the $21 million achieved in all of 2008. Mintel predicts the stevia market could exceed $2 billion by the end of 2011.

"The FDA's approval of stevia in food and drink opened the door for this market's explosion," states David Browne, senior analyst at Mintel. "New product activity has accelerated in recent years, and since most categories with stevia applications remain untapped, we expect many more stevia-infused product introductions in the next few years."

In the first eight months of 2009, Mintel's Global New Products Database (GNPD) monitored the launch of more than 110 US food, drink and healthcare products made with stevia. Annual new product activity for stevia more than doubled between 2007-2008.

The portrait for stevia's success isn't completely rosy, however. Mintel's exclusive consumer survey reveals nearly 70% of Americans have never even heard of stevia. More than six in 10 (62%) say they have no interest in trying stevia, and 11% say they think stevia is unsafe and they plan to avoid it. "Step one is for manufacturers to get the word out. At this stage, heavy demo-ing of stevia products in stores, along with copious distribution of free samples, are just as important as promoting stevia's all-natural, zero-calorie positioning," comments David Browne.

Flavor remains another obstacle to stevia's growth. Companies are aggressively perfecting formulations and seeking better source material globally, but this means one stevia-based product won't taste the same as the next. "If someone tries a stevia-sweetened drink with an off-putting aftertaste, it's logical to assume that person will be a tough sell for stevia products in the future," says David Browne.

Mintel reports that 25% of people say they might be interested in stevia, but they haven't tried it yet. Just over one in 10 (11%) say they have tried stevia and plan to continue purchasing it.

*Includes FDM and natural supermarket sales of stevia, Truvia™ and PureVia™ as tabletop sweeteners or in foods, beverages and other products

[spudders] 20/9/2009 15:33

Finals this coming Wednesday. Bit of profit taking ahead of results imho.