Punch Graphix Share Discussion Threads

[shuisky] 23/1/2007 14:47

sivadnoj,

IMHO PI are likely to gain control of PG because they already have 49% Even if they can't obtain the 1%+ they need (in order to enact management changes) from the 128p bid they are probably 'sounding out' the institutions as to what they would accept for their stake if the bid looks like it will fail. They can always come back and raise the bid and it's worth noting that they have to pay all the shareholders the same price.

AFAICS, it's a bet to nothing, and the best thing to do is not accept the bid.

A failed bid won't lead to paralysis. Remember that PI have a lot more invested in PG than you or I. If, and it's a slim 'if', they don't get control of PG they will just have to lump the fact that they couldn't get it on the cheap. PI & PG will form a working copromise and move on.

Anyhow, IMHO, it's unlikely that PI won't win control. We have to hope that they are forced to raise the bid.

[sivadnoj] 22/1/2007 16:50

So where does it go from here? Even if the PI bid doesn't succeed (which seems likely), we are left with a management team at loggerheads with a major shareholder which has publicly questioned their credibility. This seems a messy situation which may potentially lead to paralysis with regard to management decision making. Not a particularly attractive scenario for anyone wishing to buy the shares.

[shuisky] 22/1/2007 16:22

"the fact that Shareholders could end up as minority shareholders in a
company controlled by Punch International which could have a negative effect
on the share price;"

That's true but if the shares remain listed than why would PI actively destroy the value of their stock? Furthermore, if the offer goes unconditional you will get the 128p in any case.

There is always the scenario that they actively welcome a declining shareprice so they can take it private at a cheaper price later on, but would they really be this devious?

I think a lot of bad will has been created out of the way they have handled this. They could have just come to the shareholders with a premium bid, and got what they wanted. The sneaky way they launched this 'no premium' bid to get a ompany on 12x current earnings, has created a lot of bad blood.

I also imagine that a lot of PG staff got stock in the IPO, and this attitude is hardly morale boosting for the workforce.

PG are clear....

'It is very clear that the Offer is no more than an attempt to regain control of
Punch Graphix on the cheap and with complete disregard for other Shareholders.'

[sivadnoj] 22/1/2007 14:35

PBT of 23.5 million is bang in line with Teather & Greenwood's forecasts, updated in September following the interims.

[dave_a] 22/1/2007 13:13

I won't be accepting and good to see PG have come out fighting today.

However, I am slightly concerned about what will happen to the share price if they are/are not successful. Something which was highlighted in their response today:

"the fact that Shareholders could end up as minority shareholders in a
company controlled by Punch International which could have a negative effect
on the share price;"

[ianrichard] 15/1/2007 17:18

Received the offer today. Is anyone accepting?

[kluk069] 10/1/2007 09:52

No real share activity seen since xmas eve - any suggestions re. institution
stakes?? By rights heels would be firmly dug in - or is that just idealism??

Certainly interesting to see that substantial apparently long position taken at 156, but a little more newsflow here really would be a help!

[kluk069] 10/1/2007 09:52

No real share activity seen since xmas eve - any suggestions re. institution
stakes?? By rights heels would be firmly dug in - or is that just idealism??

Certainly interesting to see that substantial apparently long position taken at 156, but a little more newsflow here really would be a help!

[quickmind] 09/1/2007 12:20

What do you make of the Rule 8.3 type RNS news published earlier this morning? Apparently, it's about options to sell/buy shares at 160.5p.

[sivadnoj] 09/1/2007 11:32

Punch Graphix repeats view that Punch Intl's 128p/shr offer undervalues co
121 words
9 January 2007
11:23
AFX UK Focus
English
Copyright AFX News, 2007 All reproduction and presentation rights reserved.

LONDON (AFX) - Punch Graphix PLC reiterated its view that Punch International NV's 128 pence a share mandatory offer for the company would allow Punch International to acquire control of the group 'without paying appropriate value'.

Punch Graphix said it 'strongly' advises shareholders to take no action regarding their shares in the company.

This is all fine but at some stage they are going to have to start explaining why they consider that the offer undervalues the company and respond to the suggestion that the business has not been managed effectively or efficiently. Although the share price continues to trade around the offer price, a question mark remains over management's credibility in light of the comments made by PI. Presumably PGX will need to respond to this.

[shuisky] 30/12/2006 11:48

Let's hope that when they take the call from PI the institutions response should be something aklong the lines off...

'At 10x forecast 07 eanings we are buyers. If you have no confidence in the management, what is the discount you are going to give me and my fund-holders, in order to help you offload your 49% position?'

[kluk069] 30/12/2006 06:27

The market had provided a clear verdict this autumn on the future for pgx and that was unequivocally positive. The actions of PI are not only opportunistic but also without merit and the comments of shuisky are spot on - I trust such heavyweight
institutions as those mentioned will have the decency to do the right thing and treat the offer with the contempt it undoubtedly deserves.

[shuisky] 29/12/2006 08:58

Unfortunately, PI already own 49% of PG so this is a rather sly timed move in order to get the rest on the cheap, IMHO. FWIW I think the institutions should be saying the following based on what PI said...



'The Board of Punch International intends to improve the performance of Punch
Graphix by reducing unnecessary overhead costs, focusing on the geographic
regions with the highest potential and further develop the sales channels and
the product portfolio. The Board of Punch International expects synergies
between the Punch Graphix Group and the Punch International Group in areas such
as general administration, purchase, manufacturing and engineering, and targeted
complementary acquisitions.'

SO YOU CAN PAY A PREMIUM SINCE YOU ARE ABOUT TO RELEASE VALUE VIA YOUR MANAGEMENT EXPERTISE

'Unless the Board of Punch International acts now, it believes that there will be further deterioration in the performance of Punch Graphix with escalating
operational costs and further deterioration in value affecting all Punch Graphix
Shareholders'

SINCE PI OWNS 49% OF PG, AND DOESN'T WANT TO SEE IT'S SHAREHOLDING DEVALUE THAN THEY SHOULD BE WILLING TO PAY A PREMIUM TO AVOID LOSINGFUTURE MONEY.

URTHERMORE, IF THEY ARE CONVINCED THE SHAREPRICE IS GOING DOWN IF PI DOESN'T GET TO TAKEOVER THAN THEY SHOULD BE WILLING TO SELL THE STOCK TO THE INSTITUTIONS AT A DISCOUNT.

[kluk069] 29/12/2006 01:58

There is no incentive - and those institutions should by rights each tell PI to stick the offer where the sun don't shine. Anything less would be an almighty
kick in the teeth for shareholders and demonstrate an inexcusable inability to
manage investors money.

A few directly targeted emails along such lines wouldn't go amiss .......

[sivadnoj] 28/12/2006 16:57

I must say this seems a rather rum state of affairs. Takeover offer at zero premium to the market price. The Board say it undervalues the company yet the share price remains static, implying no expectation of an increase in the value of the offer. What, therefore, is the incentive for the holders of the 20.3% listed above to accept the offer, other than the potential control problems associated with having a single shareholder with 50% of the shares? Is this simply a tidying up exercise?

[shuisky] 27/12/2006 16:46

Yep.

IMHO, the timing is a clear indication that this bid is hostile, and there is no love lost between certain parties. PI is clearly trying to catch PG off guard, and trying to get PG on the cheap. I'm glad PG has come out and said the bid undervalues the company.

I'm happy to see that the share price is now above the 128p bid level. This indicates that the market believes that (contrary to their intention) PI will have to pay a premium.

PI holds 49% and the following together hold 20.3%.....

Capital International Invest 4,666,701 4.54%
M & G Group Ltd 4,591,000 4.46%
Morley Fund Management & Aviva Plc 4,039,555 3.93%
Framlington Investment Management Ltd 3,980,000 3.87%
Invesco Perpetual 3,571,000 3.47%

It's up to these guys how this is going to go.

[ianrichard] 22/12/2006 15:23

Just picked that one up too. Is there any significance in the timing I wonder (just after close of play for Xmas break)?

[sivadnoj] 22/12/2006 14:10

Have I been asleep at the back of the class and missed something? A mandatory offer?

Punch International Acquires 5,000 Punch Graphix Shares
181 words
22 December 2006
13:38
Dow Jones International News
English
(c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Edited Press Release

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Punch International announced Friday that it has acquired 5,000 Punch Graphix Shares, representing 0.005% of Punch Graphix's issued share capital, at 127.75 pence per share, bringing Punch International's total interest in Punch Graphix to 50,391,316 Punch Graphix Shares, representing approximately 49.0%. of Punch Graphix's issued share capital.

The company said that full acceptance of the Mandatory Offer by Punch Graphix Shareholders will result in a maximum cash consideration payable by Punch International of GBP67.1million.

The cash consideration payable to Punch Graphix Shareholders pursuant to the Mandatory Offer will be financed through a mixture of existing cash resources and available credit facilities.

The company said that KBC Peel Hunt has confirmed that the necessary financial resources are available to Punch International to satisfy full acceptance of the Mandatory Offer.

Punch International intends that following the Mandatory Offer the existing employment rights, including existing pension rights, of all Punch Graphix employees will be fully safeguarded. [ 22-12-06 1338GMT ]

[shuisky] 16/11/2006 15:38

A hunch tells me that the current bout of selling is in response to the disapponting q3 results from Agfa. The headline numbers are misleading...



...the reality is that...

'The continuous double-digit growth of digital printing plates and the increasing impact of the pricing initiatives were offset by adverse currency effects and the discontinuation of some unprofitable business of analog printing consumables.'

Double digit growth is fine. Furthermore...

'A number of important contracts confirmed Graphics' market leader position for newspaper CtP technology and software. In North America and Latin America, Agfa is playing a major part in the shift to digital CtP technology, as numerous newspapers have recently purchased the company's popular :Advantage violet-laser platesetter and :Arkitex software. At IfraExpo, an annual event for the newspaper industry held in Amsterdam, Graphics signed contracts for 20 complete digital violet CtP lines with major European newspaper publishers, such as WAZ (Germany), Wegener Groep (the Netherlands) and La Nueva España (Editorial Prensa Iberica) (Spain).'

Of course, PGX makes the Advantage & Polaris for Agfa.

[tole] 05/11/2006 12:24

Nice part on the 750 - 1000 new leads for PGX :)




Graphic Arts Show Company claims success at Graph Expo
Reston, VA; November 3, 2006

The Graphic Arts Show Company (GASC) claims that with more than 630 exhibitors filling 440,000 square feet of booth space, the recent Graph Expo was the largest U.S. printing show since 2000. Its education program of nearly 70 sessions reportedly drew a record number of ticket sales, notably the largest registration since 1995, with participants choosing to attend more sessions than in the past.

According to GASC, positive experiences of exhibitors confirmed a major resurgence of technology investment throughout the industry. The show also highlighted an industry rapidly progressing to expand its services, capabilities, and value to communicators of all kinds.


"We were optimistic; but this is beyond anything that I expected," says James Dunn, president of Heidelberg USA. "As the largest exhibitor at the show and the first that visitors see when they enter the hall, Heidelberg has gained great benefits from the industry recovery. The firm exceeded its show sales goals by the second day."

Echoing the positive sentiments, Peter Schmidt, chairman of the board and CEO of Pitman Company says, "We've been to other trade shows, but this is probably the best show I can really remember. The numbers are dramatic and people are in a buying mood."

Graph Expo and Converting Expo presented a comprehensive exhibition of technologies for digital prepublishing, prepress, printing, digital output, wide-format imaging, mailing, fulfillment, bindery, and other functions. It offered special display pavilions devoted to Mailing & Fulfillment and Wide-Format Inkjet technologies, along with a program of specialized seminars organized in cooperation with the Mailing & Fulfillment Service Association (MFSA).

Sales leads were also plentiful at Punch Graphix, parent company of Xeikon and basysprint. "This is the biggest show of its kind in North America," says Andy Dwivedi, marketing research and communications manager. "We're expecting to come out of this show with 750 to 1000 leads to follow up on."

"The caliber of people who attend this show is very high," says Steve Urmano, marketing manager at Mimaki USA, Inc. "This business is all about the closing ratio, and we've generated a strong number of leads that we feel are qualified contacts."

At Bowe Bell & Howell, marketing communications specialist Jenny Duke reports that "Graph Expo and Converting Expo has been really busy for us. In two days, we've put together about 600 qualified leads. We're very selective about the shows we attend and this one is the show to see."

Next year, the event takes place September 9-12 at McCormick Place in Chicago.

Electronic Publishing

[tole] 05/11/2006 12:22

Well no posts for 3 weeks in which the share price has added a further 10% looks good to me -

Still undervalued to me - and noted again by altium this month as a "growth company that is trading on an ill derserved low PER - and continue to regard the shares as excellent value"

[tole] 13/10/2006 11:35

Nice article..

Looks as if those large trades yesterday have moved another line of stock. Seems to be having a very positive effect on the share price today.

Still reckon this should easily be trading on a PER of more like 15 - giving a share price of more like 150-160p - bang in line with Altiums target price.