Provident Financial Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 27/2/2018 14:53

Its in the

"· The issue price of 315 pence per New Ordinary Share represents a discount of 46.4 per cent. to the closing price of 588 pence per Existing Ordinary Share on 26 February 2018 (being the last Business Day prior to the date of this announcement) and a 33.7 per cent. discount to the theoretical ex-rights price of 475 pence per Ordinary Share by reference to the closing price on the same basis."

[umitw] 27/2/2018 14:52

What's the rights issue price , any one care to suggest?

[sippguru] 27/2/2018 14:25

chucko you may well be right, although i challenge the very successful raising of £300M, they wanted £500M and couldn't get away with it. They strong armed the major investors and probably said back us or you lose everything. If that was indeed how the conversation went i'm far from convinced those long term investors will be very impressed and will no doubt start looking to extricate themselves from this mess. Furthermore i wonder how many of those home credit customers who were actively servicing the debt remain customers today leaving the book full of non-payers. Next the regulator is taking a look at lenders who roll debt endlessly, Vanquis could find itself on the wrong end of any change to the status quo. Finally Moneybarn has increased its loan book by around 25% but doubled its impairment, they tightened criteria last year but seem to have been gifting money for a while. My negativity on this company is borne from clearly defined challenges that await this business, some or all may not come to fruition, but the potential for a perfect storm does exist.

[meijiman] 27/2/2018 14:20

Libertium's clients must be weeping. This was the broker that wrote a sell note on ARM a day before the Japanese bid. Shares now over 2x higher than Liberium Target sell price!!!

[smurfy2001] 27/2/2018 14:11

chucko1, agree on the analysts clueless on commodities as well look at the price of them today

[chucko1] 27/2/2018 13:34

Another stock that had a temporary regulatory issue was Plus500. It went down to 240p from 650p. Is now 1200p (and paying massive dividends) People overreact to reg problems as they totally miss the wood for the trees.

What’s even worse is that the analysts are utterly clueless also.

[chucko1] 27/2/2018 13:29

Sippguru, you are too negative by far, in particular on the maturity of the bond in Oct 19. You make it sound like a big problem and that the success of the business revolves around this. The rolling of this bond merely changes the balance sheet in that short term debt will become long term debt, but given that they have very successfully raised £300mm of equity, a £250mm investment grade bond is trivial in comparison. Even high yield companies with far lower credit ratings roll bonds all the time, especially where the holders are all institutional (as in the case of this bond).

In short, if you think that the bond is a problem to roll, the stock would be at 50p!

[grahamite2] 27/2/2018 13:23

I tend to agree gregpeck - anyway it's surely not a screaming short.

There was a minor regulatory issue, now dealt with, and a new system for selling product didn't work out as well as expected. On that basis it lost 7/8 of its value! It quickly bounced from that low but then drifted down again.

Your 1500 looks reasonable and even conservative.

[danboris2] 27/2/2018 13:20

Just sold all mine. Reckon the bounce was a lot overdone... this is a very troubled company

[gregpeck7] 27/2/2018 13:16

Also if they pay the divi the shorts will have to cover that as well ... This looks very painful all round...

[gregpeck7] 27/2/2018 13:12

THis was 33 quid not long ago.. Looks to me like the level of bounce has started a complete trend reversal and breakout.... Could easy fly to 1500 plus on this momentum.. And tons of shorts will want out now....

[sippguru] 27/2/2018 13:07

smurfy, hard to say, my instincts are to leave this alone. Whilst they have a plan in place it is predicated on them being able to successfully issue a bond, be it either retail, corporate or both in the relatively near future. The divi is also reliant on the PRA giving authorisation. The RNS reads as if they're preparing Vanquis as a true standalone business which suggests they're preparing it for sale if needs be. They've been giving updates on Satsuma for years about it almost turning a profit and forecasting it will do so in the next reporting period, interestingly they've finally dropped a date from that part of the announcement this time. The RNS history shows a company who at best are inept, at worst are dishonest with the way they report, if you can't trust the board as far as you can throw them its probably not a wise investment. All in all i feel there are too many variables here to make a wise long term punt.

[gregpeck7] 27/2/2018 13:07

Shorters were increasing right up to results.. That has got to hurt..

[gregsc] 27/2/2018 13:05

Provident Financial (LON:PFG) just had their share rating of a ‘Buy’ issued by research analysts at numis, who now has a GBX 1264.00 target on the 1.47B GBP market cap company or a 114.53 % upside potential. This key information was revealed to clients and investors in analysts report on 26 February.

[umitw] 27/2/2018 13:01

That's cheap considering some lenders want 49.9%!

[royaloak] 27/2/2018 12:57

39.9% APR on Vanquish credit card, guess they are attracting high risk punters.

[umitw] 27/2/2018 12:37

I would not open a short on this. It will be £12 tomorrow!

[realbromley] 27/2/2018 12:30

Certainly able to open a short on IG

[realbromley] 27/2/2018 12:25

Nikesh, I am thinking about it, as are many others i suspect. But i put a short on this morning, when rise was only 37% (I thought THAT was an astonishing rise at the time) and rapidly got burnt.

[nikesh] 27/2/2018 12:13

Is anyone planning on shorting this? Is it possible to open a short?

[umitw] 27/2/2018 11:55

It's looked at a recovery stock, no longer going bust business as some people claim to know, hence the rise in speak soon.And a huge short closing as well.