Protherics Share Discussion Threads

[armistead34] 02/11/2008 17:03

Have pretty much managed to find the answer to my own question! AZN are doing at a scaled up version of stage 2, in two parts. The link is well worth exploring for newcomers to their pipeline!

[armistead34] 02/11/2008 16:46

Another query:

Have just been looking in the archves for details of the AZN deal over cytophab, and see that the original agreement, whose terms we're familiar with was based on the assumption that

'AstraZeneca plans to start the pivotal phase III study for CytoFab™ in the US and EU in 2007 following completion of improvements to the current manufacturing process. Protherics has previously demonstrated in a phase IIb study that CytoFab™..' (detailing efficacy vs placebo).

So why are we still waiting for early stage 2 trials?

[armistead34] 02/11/2008 11:41

Thanks G1980. You're obviously clued up. Could you give us a thumb nail sketch of what's going on with Voraxase? It's undergoing trials still, but is also an income generator..?

[bargainbob] 01/11/2008 22:18

Donk4

Meldex: What do you make of it ?

[donk4] 01/11/2008 21:08

The deal makes alot of sense. There is cross insurance against the potential blockbusters failing ie if Vs fail cytophab may succeed - a balance. Louise is good at rationalising the costs savings and choosing the right personel to remain - thus good savings. As you guys say plenty of cash - in this market king. This merger, and I prefer to call it that, should be good for both sets of shareholders.

PTI shareholders may have been expecting alot more elsewhere but they well be fortunate if they were to stay with their "merged" shares ie btg shares in the longer term.

There are likely to be loads of bumps with current incumbents in office in usa and gb but that will pass when each country gets better leadership.

[donk4] 01/11/2008 20:58

stevenparsons - as a BTG holder it is cheaper to buy PTI - if the deal goes through. Say BTG 1.29 divide by 0.291 per btg for pti and you get circa 37.50 pence per pti.

This will narrow on the vote being passed imo

[bargainbob] 01/11/2008 20:39

Very good write up. As I said earlier I think that BGC & PTI where married by their investors. A lot of investors have stakes in both companies Invesco 29 & 5 %. They deemed a takeover just now not in both companies interest.

Thinking out loud, if V news is good what would stop the third party partner from taking over BGC.
The same could be said for PTI.

On their own 2-3 current price is chicken feed. But as a combined unit a 1+ billion would be needed. ( Both companies are protected)

WB2 mentioned that AZN have talked to BGC over deal.
A super British Bio superbank has been created. Do AZN have first shout over
new offerings and happy to support the new company. ?

Are we looking at a FSTE company in 2012. All going well looks like it.

[armistead34] 01/11/2008 19:53

Well, as a new holder, I've been doing some extra homework to answer my own questions by reading posts from this bb over the last two years. Certainly a good bb, and I'm pleased to see Ed Jackson a fan.

Please correct me if any of the following observations are wrong. I'm new on the block - and enthusiastic about what i see!

Lots of common threads with BTG, so familiar territory to me. Lots of cash (c. 36mstg) and money making - if also loss making on account of r&d. Current capitalisation at 123mstg must be ludicrous, as the two lead money earners, crofab for snake bites, and digifab for diogoxin overdoses, alone produce income of around 20mstg, a figure that is growing rapidly (crofab by 17%, digifab by 89% in 2007/8). Furthermore this is to double in 2010, when revenue sharing rights revert to PTI from Nycomed. The case has been made repeatedly on this bb that the current share price is supported by these two products alone, and on the basis of 3* 2010 sales, I'm inclined to agree.

Moreover, under the terms of its existing agreement with AZN on cytophab, PTI is entitled to 160mstg of milestone payments, about 30mstg of which have already been received. This surely lends further strength to its balance sheet.

(Notwithstanding the co. is still loss making because of continuing R&D)

However, that leaves the big ones still to come: namely,

Royalties on Cytofab for sepsis, should it pass stage 3 in 2010, and a similar deal with a pharma major (such as GSK) for digibind/digifab for pre-eclampsia.

(Can anyone here kindly describe the EXACT nature of the relationship between these two?)

Cytophab seems to have equivalent potential to BGC's Varsisolve - ie. a 2bn gross usd market, of which PTI is entitled to 20% of net sales. As MRE has suggested in post 7159, this might be a ball park figure of $100musd pa from 2012. Hence the importance of phase 2a trials this year from AZN. All things being well, stage 2b should commence in the New Year.

I have not of course touched on Voraxase, because I don't quite understand what's going on!

Quite apart from the above, it's good to see the interest of AZN, which is a stake holder as well as a partner; and GSK. I'm surprised that neither ofg these two delivered the final takeover bid, as they're both on the look out for product in rather the same way that oil majors search out new e&ps.

But BGC got in first, and I'm delighted.

All the above VERY likely to contain inaccuracies, and I hope, subject to correction by the many much more learned members of this bb. Goes without saying this carries high risk, particularly in current environment. DYOR!

[stevenparsons] 01/11/2008 15:09

Is it better to buy shares in BTG or PTI currently?

[bargainbob] 01/11/2008 12:31

Invesco own 29% of BGC and I think 5% of PTI. I will be looking out for them maintaing the 29% level in BGC.

[armistead34] 01/11/2008 12:10

Posted this request on ther BGC bb, but here seems the more obvious place for it! S0-

If anyone here is familiar with the background to PTI's sepsis treatment, as we all seem to be with the various pitfalls along the way in the story of Vs., I'd be grateful for a sketch.

[armistead34] 01/11/2008 11:52

Bob:

I lost you slightly here. Could you explain what you meant by-

'Look out for them maintaing their same weighting post deal. ( If they do Buy Buy Buy)'

Are you talking about Invesco?

[bargainbob] 01/11/2008 11:12

armistead 34,
Went this route myself when last time when there was a 12% diffence in price.

Have a slightly diffent view what is happening here. I suspect the merger is one of agreement by both companies and a third party ( our 29% holder).
Look out for them maintaing their same weighting post deal. ( If they do Buy Buy Buy)
BTG have been tasked IMHO with cost cutting, moving the RD forward on the main hopes of PTI. Selling the rest and locking together of the tax losses of both companies.

I do not think this is a long term growth story, but keeping both companies out of prey of other bidders in the short term. Mainly because short term both are under valued on a 15 year view.

I then expect in two years for this to be sold at a multiple of 3-5 of todays price.

[armistead34] 01/11/2008 10:37

Bob,

Hello. I'm back into this share via PTI, and trying to get my head round exactly what it brings to BTG. So far I like what I see.

Short term excitement would include stage 2 Cytofab before the year end; which would be very neat, in conjunction with a Vs deal from BGC. These are undoubtedly the two blockbusters, which could transform the share price of the new company, though we're looking out four years for that income to be realised.

But as we have seen time and again, one blockbuster can have a very destabilising effect on a pharma; to have two, must derisk the situation by half. But there's now so much more in the stable besides. And a bulky stash of cash.

I didn't imagine I'd have the opportunity to buy back at these sorts of prices, and feel especially lucky since PTI has given a discounted route into the new company.

Obvious sectoral specific risks and wider market aside, I hope this is a good entry point. We shall see!

[bargainbob] 31/10/2008 20:34

Varisolve papers 6th to 9th of Nov, could be good news, phase 111 under way. Third party deal could happen at any time.

[fhmktg] 30/10/2008 12:54

Some hefty volume today - somebody done their sums and realised buying PTI gives some advantage to the BGC sp?
RNS to come?
Surely can't be trial results - though Voraxaze planned use results are due H2.

[fhmktg] 27/10/2008 11:35

What the heck is spooking this company sp!

[red ninja] 25/10/2008 14:20

Golly1980,

Deal

[warrenbuffet2] 25/10/2008 12:07

the board has agreed the deal and are all resigning apart from rolf.btg will prune the pipeline and by sharing overheads will speed up profitabilty.my model predicts revenues of over £100m and net profits of over £60m to march 31 2012.

[the_doctor] 25/10/2008 11:48

If PTI has to go it alone, IMO they have to reprioritise the pipeline and see if they can bring profitability closer. At the moment, they're spending too much on products that arent all worth it.

[mark30] 24/10/2008 20:36

:0(
nite all

[golly1980] 24/10/2008 20:33

52p, thks for your sympathy

ouch

[mark30] 24/10/2008 20:27

at 20p I'm relatively secure!
For the rest of those above that figure I sympathies'

[golly1980] 24/10/2008 20:19

I've got to too, not loving the idea but thats the way it is.

Been here 8ish years, what's another couple.