Produce Share Discussion Threads

[rhomboid] 22/5/2018 19:56

‘Guys have a look at Aeg as well.Last RNS was amazing.Potential multibag in 2018.Take care’ 🙄 oxymoron alert

[costax1654x] 22/5/2018 19:55

Guys have a look at Aeg as well.Last RNS was amazing.Potential multibag in 2018.Take care

[topvest] 22/5/2018 18:14

Yes and no. They didn’t own up to it at the interims as they were still aiming to hit market expectations. Think the big issue is the impairment charges at Rowe and Swancote. This is going to be c£10m and will need booking at the parent company as well. This could be a dividend block unless they can get some dividends out of Greenvale or Jersey Royals before the end of March. As always, this company is normally a buy at close to £1 and a sell at £2+. I’m happy to have stepped out at £1.50 as it’s been a serial disappointment. To have made a profit is, in the circumstances, fortunate!

[greg the grinch] 22/5/2018 14:01

All as expected.... we knew profits would be down... over the years the earnings will become more consistent... etc

[topvest] 22/5/2018 08:17

I'm out. Lost my patience here. Its a poor business. Quite frankly, I'm amazed to get out at a profit overall + dividends on top. Its been one disaster after another. That's farming I suppose!

What the RNS doesn't say is that it looks like the final dividend will have to be canned. The parent company doesn't appear to have sufficient distributable reserves to pay a dividend if the impairments are booked. They will need a capital reduction in my view. Indeed, the 2016 final dividend looks like it was borderline illegal anyway given the company had negative P&L reserves at the end of the year.

It also doesn't say whether the Net Debt to EBITDA covenant is breached or at risk of. Last year 2.0 versus 2.5 covenant. To be honest, I think this is fixable as the company does have lots of valuable assets to secure their borrowings. Nevertheless, it points to the final dividend being canned.

Swancote Foods is an absolute disaster and needs close to a full impairment and possible closure. Metal potatoes and just incredibly low margin, even with free / outsized potatoes!

Will keep on the watch list as a value play, but its not the best business of all time. Selling commodity products to supermarkets.

UPDATE - somewhat surprised this hasn't moved down further today. I was expecting it to tank to 130p or less. Still happy to be out as more downside risk than upside risk for the next 6 months.

[eastbourne1982] 22/3/2018 11:32

Unfortunately this is an up and down business mainly due to the natural environment.

For me it would be a good buy around £1.30 however if I already held I probably wouldn't be selling now.

[jimmywilson612] 22/3/2018 10:59

I understand your points boon and the prospect of a profit warning is what probably will hold off me buying more for now. However, I think its a good business.

Daffodils suffering, missed key demand window this year. - Weather related
Jersey Royals crop also way behind schedule. - Weather related
Normal potato crop also suffering. - Weather related

Unfortunately that's the nature of the beast in the farming world. Question is, can the business survive bad seasons and prosper in good seasons. I also believe that Europe has also suffered bad weather if Feb/March so think it will have a positive impact on prices.

[boonkoh] 22/3/2018 10:37

I see a pre emptied profit warning in the outlook statement. Daffodils suffering, missed key demand window this year. Jersey Royals crop also way behind schedule. Normal potato crop also suffering.Prices will rise but with worldwide trading price increases are limited as potatoes can be imported. Mgmt say FY profits will be broadly in line, but depending on the outturn of these three. I think they just don't have the guts to lower profit forecast now, and are waiting for a miracle.

[mach100] 22/3/2018 10:34

Same dilemna for me Jimmy . I bought at 230p and it has blighted my PF ever since a rise and a retrace. It does pay a divi so I am happy to have some (potato) skin in the game but the share price is trending down so you have to keep your eyes peeled! I woud be happy to let the share vegetate in my PF if I could be the sure we are at the bottom now. I will probably plough on for now but with a weary eye on the weather.

[jimmywilson612] 22/3/2018 10:20

Any thoughts on today's interim results? Havent had a chance to go through them yet - not been my best investment but don't know whether to leave the ship now or if its a good price.

[boonkoh] 07/3/2018 23:43

Jersey royale crops at risk this year due to cold weather. Running 2 weeks behind schedule already.

[greg the grinch] 07/3/2018 18:02

Hi BB did you reduce your holding? I seem to remember you held a lot?

Of your current shares, which 3 would be your best picks for gains in 2018?

Thanks

Greg

[battlebus2] 02/3/2018 18:56

Ah I see now, will have to update that BBUS header. Don’t know what happened to it.

[battlebus2] 02/3/2018 18:52

Still holding these. Like the dividend and the fact Zucker are invested.

[battlebus2] 02/3/2018 18:51

No I haven’t?

[greg the grinch] 02/3/2018 18:49

Do you still hold a fair chunk or did you sell?

[greg the grinch] 02/3/2018 18:49

Hi BB

The sell off started well before the bad weather.

Bad weather in the SE of British Isles but one-two week delay?
I cant see it destroying the crops.

I'm thinking of buying more but will wait until new ISA season.

I note on your BB thread you have removed your list of share? Any reason?

TIA

[battlebus2] 02/3/2018 18:02

Weather related I’m guessing though I’m not sure how it’ll effect the crop as the snow early spuds are in.

[greg the grinch] 02/3/2018 17:54

Thoughts?

SP going down?

[pugugly] 29/10/2017 09:15

bb2: Thanks for heads up - R,

[battlebus2] 28/10/2017 21:28

That’s not the way it was AFAIA.

[topvest] 28/10/2017 20:28

He was kicked out along with 2 other NEDs in a Board Room bust-up, if you ask me. In such a scenario I don't think he would be likely to retain his shares.

[battlebus2] 28/10/2017 19:07

He’s leaving the co pugugly, no point holding stock in what will be a rival co.

[pugugly] 28/10/2017 18:53

Why ?? Fair price Could this be why price moving down again?

" 20 October 2017 - Produce Investments plc (AIM: PIL), a leading operator in the fresh potato and daffodil sectors, discloses that Neil Davidson, Chairman of the Group, on Friday 20 October 2017, sold 130,400 Ordinary Shares at 192p per share.

Following the transaction, Mr Davidson no longer has an interest in the Company's issued share capital. "

[topvest] 28/10/2017 15:49

Annual Report arrived. Printers have messed-up as about 10 pages of notes are missing!
Think I will hold on here and see how things progress. You always get the feeling that Barrie Clapham and Angus Armstrong run the show. Greenvale and Jersey Royal continue to be the main profit generators. Swancote Foods is a dog and probably needs closing or getting profitable ASAP. Rowe farming is less profitable, but had a poor last year due to the weather so should rebound. Restrain is a nice little niche company. Fair value probably about 250p in my view. Any thoughts?