Premier Utilities Trust Share Discussion Threads

[kvu] 11/11/2004 21:11

Bought some $39 PUTS on the QQQ's on DEC at $1.20 and somehow got some filled at $1.18 etc. Must be the smart routing or something.

Still waiting for the perfect formation on MER, but the low volatility and the great chart patterns make it tempting to jump on for a 6-8 week correction.

[torturedsoul] 11/11/2004 20:30

energyi,

what are the top two charts?

looks like gold?

[energyi] 11/11/2004 20:27

S&P500
...
GOLD
...

[torturedsoul] 11/11/2004 18:58

wonging

let me rephrase that, "a weaker us$ is good for some stocks", particularly the big multi national stocks.

this is because for those that earn a large portion of their revenue from overseas, when that overseas non-us$ revenue is converted into US$ for their quarterly results. there is more us$ because it takes less foreign currency to buy a single us$. so it makes the revenues look bigger and better than that actually are, even if it is just smoke and mirrors.

but a weak us$ isnt good for all stocks. for example, a weak us$ is bad for a dow stock like home depot. because it's just a usa business so it can't gain from foreign currency conversion to the us$. but it's profit margins get squeezed by the weak us$ because a weak us$ means higher commodity prices (raw materials).

but for stocks which have a truely global reach, like msft, intc, dell etc. a weak us$ is very good for their revenue numbers.

[wonging] 11/11/2004 18:48

energyi, nice to hear you use ig index options, they cant be that bad then

i thought we had recently passed the time of selling premium and yet its back again, when will this go away? im having nightmares now of the vxo vanishing off the bottom of the chart digging into the ground like a worm never to be seen again!

#:-o

[energyi] 11/11/2004 18:39

Last year's sharp fall in the Dollar (Aug-Dec) disguised
a SEP.2004 correction in US stocks, which you could only see
when converted into non-$ FX:



notice the double bottom near Eur.8500

[energyi] 11/11/2004 18:35

W.,
I use IG Index Puts- so the pricing is okay (given tax benefit).
What i dont like is that it is often difficult to trade in-the-money
puts online, so maybe your system of shorting and using calls to hedge
is better. But that does mean paying two spreads- which gets expensive.

I dont think we have seen the TOP yet.
Though I have bought a scattering of puts in the property sector
already. These are benefitting from higher rates so far

= =

TS,
I'm ready to bet on the Down turn in the 4 year cycle, using puts,
if they are cheap enough - which they seem to be. This may need two
rounds of shorting: Now-Christmas, and again next year (around March?)

[wonging] 11/11/2004 18:32

tortured soul, how can the bulls expect a rally thus justifing buying equities because the $ is falling?

the $ is off more than 30% and the spx is down 25% from the highs, if that argument held water then the spx would be near 2000 with a $ 30% off?

this "$ weakness is good for stocks" story is just another rumour started to help daz boys unload isnt it?

wong

[torturedsoul] 11/11/2004 18:12

energyi

agree, this rally seems very fishy. post election rally seems like an excuse for daz boys to offload to poor unsuspecting joe public.

case in point is the sox. i am and have been very bearish on chip companies for various reasons for quite some time, which is now being supported by new and future news flow. i cant see how things are going to improve either. yet they wont stop rallying. i mean, we expect a dead cat bounce, nothing drops in a straight line but things are getting ridiculous. saying that, it does look like the sox is going to backtest the broken uptrend line from below on the daily today, maybe tomorrow.

as for the broader usa market, i think this may turn into a trading range like what we saw in jan&feb 2004. with many false breakouts/breakdowns to confuse and annoy everyone. only when daz boys have unloaded will we drop.

but if you're searching for a top, i think we're likely to see it when the US$ index breaks this down channel on the daily because a weak us$ is +ve for the big multinationals. so a stronger $ and the outlook should be worse. but of course, as we all know the us$ is ####ed.

[wonging] 11/11/2004 18:12

energyi, whats your opinion on ig index's option pricing, is it realistic bearing in mind its tax free?

im looking at spx puts here for a straight forward punt

currently still holding spx shorts @ 1161/1140/1130/1120 which were all hedged at 1102 with dec 1105 calls, looking now to remove the 1105 call hedge and short some more spx, maybe through puts if ig index'x pricing seems reasonable, if not then will add more shorts with march futs

wong

[energyi] 11/11/2004 17:21

MM,
Mostly I agree. SOX has peaked some time ago, and often NDX follows it.
I ahve added the NDX chart to the header. And the setup does look pretty
similar.

At the moment, I am expecting an SPX peak next Friday, along with option
expiry. Puts with a January expiry might catch most of the initial drop
in the market, but if they are cheap enough, i might go for March

The FTSE peak at just over 4800 could come as soon as tomorrow.
But let's watch the action before betting on it

BTW: Long Gold, short Euros might prove a clever move:

[mad mac] 11/11/2004 16:35

aha, my kind of thread :)

I'm currently short the NAS100 as it seems to be having trouble sustaining anything over 1525. Short term the recent rise has been too steep so a pullback seems in order; and long term (1-6 months) I'm looking for new lows, as I continue to believe the NAS is grossly over-value on fundamentals.

Dow December Puts are also looking interesting - maybe January if the time cost is not too bad.

I'm also short euros, as it looks like the ECB is trying to talk the euro down.

[kvu] 09/11/2004 15:56

Hi Mr E

I am looking at a technical fall over th next 8 weeks and with christmas coming up and traders wanting to close positions I am thinking MER would be a good medium term play. The Jan options are better than dec...I like the MERML (JAN 04 $60 PUTS). With the cash on MER at $55.70 that means the intrinsic value of the $60 option is $4.30. AT a cost of $4.80 at the moment.....that isn't bad for a possible two month window for a fall and nice profit.....but i think the setup isn't right just yet. Will let you know as soon as i do anything. Also looking at the DEC and Jan $39 puts for the QQQ's.

[energyi] 09/11/2004 15:09

Dec. may be too soon.
Next year is better and options tim e value is cheap now

[kvu] 09/11/2004 12:45

MER (Merrill Lynch) looks like a good candidate for a short via Dec or Jan puts for the christmas sell off. I think around $55.88 it still has a little room left for a rally as there seems to be a traingle forming which displays signs of an upward break, but the DEC 04 $60 PUTS when valued around $2.20 when MER hits $58 or thereabouts would look good for a drop back to $54 which would yield a possible $150 return on investment.

[energyi] 08/11/2004 17:42

If you can stomach Canadian mining & exploration stocks,
try to pick up some Endaevour (EDV) at under $3.12, or
Euromax (EOX) at under $0.33, or Exeter (XRC) at under $1.10

[ben gunn] 08/11/2004 15:20

energyi
I have my long standing ML Gold and general but I have also put £10,000 into Avocet on the AIM market for the gold frolics that you are predicting.
My take is that the gold party is on ice for 3 weeks until 1st Dec as nervous traders try to gain from the BULL market's last big push.

Did you read Roger Bootle on Sunday in the Sun Telegraph( found it on the plane!) He says that UK interest rates may now stop rising and could re-trench as low as 3% if the 2005 prospects really do look glum.
Your view?

[energyi] 07/11/2004 23:35

Sure, KVU.
It would be great to meet up. Glad to hear you are doing well.
Have any gold shares yet?

[kvu] 07/11/2004 20:42

Energyi,

Hi long time eh? I haven't posted on these here boards for over 7 months I think.

I am trading the November QQQ options as they are very liquid and the time decay isn't much a factor with short term positions. The low volatility makes them even cheaper and with a potential rise in that with a desired price movement.....the gains can be excellent. Friday came in and out twice on buying the NOV $38 Puts at $0.50 and $0.55 and dumping them at $0.70. Not a bad rate of return on asset investment.

The calls are just as inviting and with the limited risk in a such a unpredictable market makes it all the more fun to play and research.

We should def organise a coffee soon and with my wifi connection pass at over 1700 locations in London, we can watch the markets as well hehe. Sad as it sounds......but it has my life far easier with the freedom to be where ever, when ever. Email me and we can discuss it.....I cant remember which account you use to receive messages nowadays.

Hope all else is well

Best

KVU

[energyi] 05/11/2004 18:47

just added: puts on FRE
During this week, bought puts on : HGX, IYR, PHM (again)

considering Jan.SPX & BKX puts, but will await the right set-up

Update: SPX ........ : BKX charts
: