Premier Utilities Trust Share Discussion Threads

[kvu] 03/1/2005 17:44

Energyi.

Not sure if you play the dow, but I would be careful of shorts on that as I feel when we take a large corrective bounce after the close tonight or at the open tomorrow on the spx and nas, the dow may make a rally for a new high. Even though the new high may not be much higher, I feel it may still go slightly higher and stop out those weak, fully margined shorts as it is the retail people who generally play that index.

Happy new year to you and I look forward to catching up with you soon. I am really glad with my calls and trades over the last few months and, more so, the last few days that I am going to go spend a few hours relaxing with a few friends.

Best

KVU

[energyi] 03/1/2005 16:59

Today's HEAVY VOLUME to the downside, is not bullish

[torturedsoul] 03/1/2005 15:54

really want to see supports break and trade down through the numbers below to confirm negative trading bias

dow 10760
spx 1204
ndx 1585

[kvu] 03/1/2005 15:49

Taken puts on spx now and will add on any rally.

[kvu] 03/1/2005 15:35

The spx not breaking Low of friday is saying high not in place, but the nas breaking its low is conclusive for me. I am going to buy puts on the nas on any bounces.

[energyi] 03/1/2005 15:19

TOP of this Monthly Bolly is NOT FAR away

[kvu] 03/1/2005 15:11

People should wait and see what happens on the next up move to see if it seems corrective or impulsive. The current down move is again showing a three wave down move to lows of 1627.5 on the nas 100 futs and 1213.5 on the SPX futs.

[kvu] 03/1/2005 14:45

Closed MER call contracts at 1.40 for +$0.25

[torturedsoul] 03/1/2005 14:38

e,

looks more like a bear flag with 406 target.

[energyi] 03/1/2005 14:36

I wonder what the volume is like in the gold market today?

We could be setting up for a "V" bottom

[torturedsoul] 03/1/2005 14:29

ca,

call me paranoid but i think gold is traded on insider data prior to usa economic data releases.

ive seen gold sell off prior to the data releases (which turns out to be dollar +ve) too many times to ignore.

my theory is that gold isnt monitored for insider trading like stocks/futures. so those that want to profit from their inside info do it with gold trades prior to the data release.

my guess is we've got some +ve dollar data to come @ 10am est.

[collection agency] 03/1/2005 14:15

Could this be a $ intervention story?

Agree with that gold tgt

[torturedsoul] 03/1/2005 13:52

if gold breaks down through 429, it looks like the target would be the 406 support.

[torturedsoul] 03/1/2005 13:46

gold testing 430/431 support.

very interesting...

[torturedsoul] 03/1/2005 12:19

still say top around 1240 spx, dow 11100

price action is bearish but supports arent being broken, they're being bought.

so we continue to move higher.

strong dollar action overnight which wont help the indices but if the bottom of the dollar is going to coincide with the top in the markets (as previously) then i wouldve expected gold trade down through it's 430/431 support level. which hasnt happened.

sector price action is showing we're nearing a top but we're not there yet.

[collection agency] 03/1/2005 12:14

E,

Yes. Futs have bounced up from Fri close back to pre last hour drop level.

[energyi] 03/1/2005 11:57

Happy New Year to you and all, CA

"a top at 1220 area"

Is looking like a decent call to me
Is the USA market opened today?

[collection agency] 03/1/2005 11:07

hi K, my thinking is along very similar lines too

[kvu] 03/1/2005 10:57

Hi CA.

Thank you for the wishes and the same in return to you. Not sure if you remember our last conversation when we met with Count Dino etc about a top at 1220 area short term before a largish correction into March. Well I think we could be approaching it, but need price confirmation first so lets see what happens as the charts say we are within the target zones for both price and time frame for a top in the near term.

[kvu] 03/1/2005 10:46

Closed short for +2 at 1219 for entry later on when we test highs during market hours.

[collection agency] 03/1/2005 10:44

Kvu & Energyi, a happy new year to you both.

This might be of interest:

[kvu] 03/1/2005 09:54

I have currently taken a few futures shorts on the spx at 1221 for a starter as I do believe the toping process will be hard to catch unless you are around the screen most of the time. I will be watching to see if the up moves are as sharp as the down moves as that will indicate an impending change of direction with the "fights" in price direction. Will be an interesting week ahead.

[kvu] 03/1/2005 09:51

The way my count on the spx works is that the high last week on thursday night was "Wave 3 of 3 of 5" and the largish correction on Thursday evening was "Wave 4 of 3 of 5". Then came the grinding ending pattern on friday with a throw-over top which I counted as "Wave 5 of 3 of 5" as Merrill Lynch had completed a three wave correction to an area of 59.58 which was a three wave affair and was a target zone for my shorts and potential points for a long. My charts point to MER topping out around 60.62 as a minimum and the ES05H futs hitting 1219.75 as a min which were targets set by myself over 4 weeks back on the PUT thread. The fact that we sold off on heavy volume at the end of the day on friday was a clear sign that it was a large 4th wave correction as it was a trap for those who were short over the weekend. Heavy volume also indicated that the pro's had sold mainly into the last hour of trading to buy it higher early in the new year.

So now my charts patters say wave 3 of 5 is complete at friday's high with "Wave 4 of 5" complete at friday's selloff lows. This week should see "Wave 5 of 5" topping out. As Wave 1 equalled around 22 SPX handles (1195-1217) Wave 5 should be of around the same size and indicate that a bottom at 1210.5 with 22spx handles added for a rally should top out around 1230-35 approx.

[kvu] 31/12/2004 19:46

Just heading out to a new year dinner, but taken 2 call contracts on MER on the last tiny drop to 59.75 for a small rally next week. If it doesnt happen then they will be dumped early next week.

[kvu] 31/12/2004 17:55

Closed MER put at $1.35 for +0.20

Have a great new year all.

Best

KVU