Premier Utilities Trust Share Discussion Threads

[torturedsoul] 31/12/2004 16:51

dollar strength coming in across the board on the major fx crosses.

that's not going to do the indices any favours.

[torturedsoul] 31/12/2004 16:37

we're seeing more and more negative breadth as this top completes.

-ve a/d line with low trin. this is usual near tops. people take profits across the board, but support levels havent yet broken. they still think the trend is up, so not knowing what to do, they buy the big caps.

that keeps the trin down but with little upwards movement in price despite big vols going through. it's topping action.

vix is interesting here i think. some people have given it up as dead but it seems to be signalling that there's a significant move into puts. perhaps for the end of tax year selling in january, some people are expecting significant weakness?

market imho is living on borrowed time. but until major supports break, any shorts of mine are just scalps for now, nothing longer term.

[energyi] 31/12/2004 16:30

MER...

1/ Faces resistance at $60-61:


2/ MER-to-$SPX ratio has backed away from 0.05

[torturedsoul] 31/12/2004 16:24

mer is the market.

the weakness in mer is just reflecting the poor breadth that the broader market is suffering from.

i use mer's price change from the previous close as one of the inputs of my systems which quantifies the direction and strength of the usa intraday market trend.

[kvu] 31/12/2004 16:16

The fact that MER is falling on a rising market is very bad for the stock and indicates is a good position to purchase low volatility risk PUTs.

[kvu] 31/12/2004 16:06

Energyi

I have closed out my SPX and NAS positions on yerterday's drop as I expected a quick correction before the new year bounce next week, but MER looks very weak and after my last trade on it from $61 to $58.5, I have waited for a correction back up to reshort and I am adding in as I think stocks will top out before the indicies and hence my play on MER today. I have only used 5% of my PUT buying capital today and am holding out the rest for next tuesday as I think we may get a high vol top on monday with a possible low volume top on tuesday. Lets see, either way, I am ready and waiting and am not looking to enter too early.

Have a great new year celebration and hopefully I will catch up with you early in the new year.

Best
KVU

[energyi] 31/12/2004 15:50

KVU,
I am still holding fire.
Maybe later today, if the SPX pops. Otherwise on a POP next week

I am building a nice position in the GAIN stocks:

The GAIN-2004 List
Symbol Company..... Price. ShsFD MktCp* Yr.L...Yr.H Comments
v.ACA Ashton Mining c$0.91 76.4M $57.9M $0.87-$2.06 : 214675
v.ADA Acadian Gold. c$0.19 36.8M $5.94M $0.14-$0.48 1mn oz.Reso : 1395350
v.AMS Amera Res.... c$0.67 19.7M $11.2M $0.35-$1.12 : 1607585
t.APG Apollo Gold.. c$1.15 79.5M $77.7M $0.65-$3.42 : 1538629
v.ARU Aurelian Res. c$0.90 26.0M $20.0M $0.80-$2.54 $6.5mn cash : 1487586
v.AXM Axmin Inc.... c$0.62 108.M $55.8M $0.52-$1.35 : 965134
v.BGI Birim Gldflds c$0.53 40.0M $17.7M $0.42-$1.14 : 49942
v.BM- BacTech...... c$0.38 50.0M $16.1M $0.24-$1.30 : 1648388
v.BZA Amer.Bonanza. c$0.20 30.0M $6.00M $0.14-$0.40 : 313135
CAU-- Canyon Res... us
v.CCM Canarc Res... c$0.54 57.9M $26.1M $0.49-$1.10 : 1389017
t.CZN Canadian Zinc c$0.62 69.3M $36.5M $0.51-$2.04 : 148823
v.CGP CornerstoneCp c$0.25 20.9M $4.35M $0.19-$0.95 : 1370209
v.CNU Continuum Res c$0.27 39.5M $10.7M $0.24-$1.20 : 147979
v.CMA CreamMinerals c$0.31 40.0M $10.3M $0.26-$0.90 : 1565891
v.DSP Diamondex Res c$0.88 61.4M $45.0M $0.75-$1.31 : 149539
v.DVV Dunsmuir Ven. c$0.14 xx.xM $x.xxM $0.13-$0.49 : 405767
v.DYG Dynasty Gold. c$0.39 37.7M $12.5M $0.36-$1.11 : 1443079
v.ER- Eastmain Res. c$0.57 50.0M $23.8M $0.46-$1.25 : 46376
v.EXN Excellon Res. c$0.20 130.M $21.7M $0.13-$0.31 : 48224
v.FFR Fairstar Expl c$0.15 41.2M $5.25M $0.11-$0.38 : 47142
v.ITF Freegold Vent c$0.33 xx.xM $xx.xM $0.24-$0.64 : 1539962
v.FMM Full Metal Mn c$0.48 16.0M $6.40M $0.38-$0.70 : 1747313
v.GNG GoldenGoliath c$0.25 40.0M $8.33M $0.20-$0.70 : 313144
v.GPR Great Panther c$0.39 20.0M $6.60M $0.35-$0.77 : 1563128
v.IM- Island Mtn.Gd c$.065 xx.xM $x.xxM $0.05-$0.22
v.IAU Intrepid Minl c$0.60 52.2M $31.3M $0.54-$1.43 : 49483
v.INM Intl Northair c$0.28 14.0M $3.92M $0.26-$1.29 : 103416
v.ITS Int'l Taurus. c$0.14 102.M $12.1M $0.13-$0.62 : 103417
t.MAE Miramar Mng.. c$1.56 157.M $208.M $1.11-$3.74 : 103455
v.MTX Metalax Mng.. c$0.85 xx.xM $x.xxM $0.09-$0.39 : 48603 update
v.MVG Metallic Vent c$1.70 xx.xM $xx.xM $1.45-$8.30 : xx
v.MUM Mustang Minls c$0.40 45.0M $19.1M $0.32-$1.25 : 156340
v.NDE NDT Ventures. c$0.15 40.0m $6.00M $0.13-$0.28 : 1319864
v.NSM NorthStar Mng c$0.54 27.3M $12.5M $0.44-$1.14 : 1358905
t.NSU Nevsun Mining c$1.90 80.0M $172.M $1.89-$7.70 : 47738
v.QRL Queenstake Ex c$0.47 450.M $180.M $0.38-$0.95 : 1450066
t.PFN Pacific Nwest c$0.40 40.0M $13.6M $0.40-$1.20 : 1300046
v.SXG Samex Mining. c$0.79 xx.xM $xx.xM $0.65-$1.54 : 103527
v.SGC Sunridge Gold c$0.66 22.5M $12.6M $0.60-$4.60 : 1149245
t.THT Thistle Mng.. c$0.01 600.M $15.3M $0.01-$0.41 : 147076
v.TK- Tinka Res.... c$0.29 15.0M $3.70M $0.22-$0.60 : 1370612
v.VAN Vangold Expl. c$0.24 25.0M $5.31M $0.21-$0.88 : 1540114
v.VIT Victoria Res. c$1.00 xx.xm $x.xxM $0.76-$2.30 : 47089 : Bema Grp
USGL- US Gold...... .$0.45 20.4M $9.16M $0.38-$1.85 : 5134

- -
The year is not over, but the selling is drying up, and these stocks are starting to move. I'm not through investing, but I have already picked up:

ADA at $0.20, now $0.25
APG at $0.90, now $1.05
ARU at $0.88
BGI at $0.54
CNU at $0.25
FMM at $0.44
GNG at $0.22
GPR at $0.38
MAE at $1.36
MUM at $0.33
NDE at $0.14
NSM at $0.51, now $0.65
PFN at $0.41, now $0.48
HEC at $0.52
... beating mostly, prices in the header

ANYONE else playing this game?

[kvu] 31/12/2004 14:55

Taken some MER puts for 1.15 on the JAN $60 strikes

[kvu] 30/12/2004 21:05

Closed out ES05H shorts at 1215.0 on the nose.

[kvu] 30/12/2004 19:20

Added to ES04H shorts at 1219.0 as the chart pattern look convincing for a pull back of sorts.

[kvu] 30/12/2004 15:08

Took some spx short futs trades for fun on my day trade account. Price on ES05H at 1217.50

[kvu] 30/12/2004 15:07

I am looking to buy some puts on the eur over the next week. I know a lot of people are getting excited now with a tripple top formation, but the top looks more like a 4th Wave traingle as there was a sharp wave 2 correction back in November, hence I would expect a top more around the 1.38-40 level. I would expect the 1.3640 level to break on quite conclusive volume with the volume dying off there after and a further higher high on a smaller degree within say a 30min pattern. Be careful with early EUR shorts.

[energyi] 29/12/2004 19:11

Hector,
I only buy in-the-money options as a proxy for an outright position,
but with limited risk. At these low vols options are very good

[energyi] 29/12/2004 19:07

KVU, have a look at the Triangle on FORM
...
I am buying Tax Loss Targets with both hands today. See: GAIN

[hectorp] 29/12/2004 18:38

If people don't want to lose time value while waiting for Puts to mature , write calls instead of buying puts . See also the guys on the OPTS thread.
I'd never buy a put myself, though I use spread bet positions to go short. I'm not a keen shorter generally but you need to be ready to take advantage.

[kvu] 29/12/2004 18:30

Closed out part of my QQQQ put position for break even to leave me room to add in higher up as I believe next week still holds the key to a top short term.

[kvu] 28/12/2004 20:12

Hey, Mr E

Not sure if the info was that helpful, but it was something that I think could be interesting. The SPX seems to be completing a more complex topping process, and hence I dumped my futures shorts at 1213 after going short at 1215.5 and I also just dumped my calls on the spx jan contracts as it seems like a week or so could pass before any real movement and hence my calls could loose time value and as I am not looking to hold naked shorts, I think the only way to play this is to wait and see a break in trend. I dont think this is too far away, so might be best to let this happen first.

[energyi] 28/12/2004 18:40

thnx for that, KVU

[kvu] 28/12/2004 17:18

If people go back and check in Jan 2004, the compx made two new highs after the Nas 100 couldn't. The nas 100 went and tested the previous congestion zone which is what seems to be happening now, so I have added to some puts today and bought more Jan 40.625 puts at $0.98

The spx is still completing its topping process so I am shorting futures against some calls boughts at yesterday's ending lows to support a chart pattern I have. I still feel the spx will top out over the next 6 business days with the first of the month buying just round the corner along with the new year euphoria.

BEst

KVU

[kvu] 27/12/2004 16:40

Got filled on half my put order on the nas at 1631.5.....wish the rally had happened mid day then the options writers would have been more liquid with the available contracts. Oh well, got the QQQQ $40.625 JAN PUTS at $1.05

No position on the SPX yet as the target zone of 1219.75 didnt get touched and the fall, even though it looks powerful, seems unconvincing. I will wait on that, maybe a new year rally in the first few days of jan might take that higher. Lets see what happens.

[kvu] 23/12/2004 23:29

My chart work points to 1631 as the top on the NQ05H futs between next weeks open and jan 5th and the ES05H futs going towards new highs at 1219.75 area. I am thinking the nas will not make a new high just complete an abc corrective move back towards the highs and the spx will makes way to new highs above those seen today. After that my initial work points down in a large correction of some size, but a new high thereafter is expected for me in march or may thereafter. I will want to see the action of the coming two weeks to see if i buy puts or short positions and I will update my work on here accordingly.

Merry christmas to you all.

Best KVU

[energyi] 23/12/2004 17:42

dark,
The best time to start this type of thread is well before the High.
Note the pink chart in the header, suggesting that the High was still ahead.
A good thread develops over time.

I have bought a few Put options, made money on some. Lost on others.
But have still not PULLED THE BIG TRIGGER. The bad breadth is warning that I should do so soon.

I have had a very profitable year. How about you?

MadMac,
I think that was a decline in New Highs-New Lows, not the market as a whole

[mad mac] 23/12/2004 17:14

energyi, that data looks suspect for NYHL for May 2004 - unless I was asleep, I don't remember a mass sell-off at that time...