Premier Technical Services Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 22/1/2019 08:57

Share based payments

2015 - £2.2m
2016 - £1.8m
2017 - £3.0m

Are you happy to include them in adjusted EPS? I certainly wouldn't be.

[rivaldo] 21/1/2019 23:24

Here's the core EPS figures which the markets actually use:



2015 4.87p EPS
2016 7.63p EPS
2017 9.73p EPS
2018 11.86p EPS

Numis' increase of 10% today implies that this year they're now forecasting 13.7p EPS.

That's a current year P/E of only 11.2.

[cockerhoop] 21/1/2019 20:36

If you take statutory EPS for the last 4 years

2014 0.69p
2015 0.57p
2016 2.61p
2017 1.37p

Doesn't look quite so cheap!

[apad] 21/1/2019 20:23

Scott is wrong.
"A 2015 study by the Asset Based Finance Association found that construction firms were having to wait, on average, over 15 weeks to receive payment, and the delays were growing. Waits for payment in this industry increased 22% in five years from 88 days in 2008.2 "

Excellent paper here:


apad

[rivaldo] 21/1/2019 15:18

Indeed, that's why it's such a good acquisition! Presumably the receivables are so good because it has such high recurring income from maintenance contracts - and it should therefore help PTSG's cash flows no end.

[cockerhoop] 21/1/2019 14:32

Trinity's level of trade receivables is less than 3 months so substantially superior to that at PTSG...............just saying :-)

[mfhmfh] 21/1/2019 14:14

From today's IC re: today's acquisition:

'House Broker Numis has increased 2019 profit and EPS forecasts 10 per cent in response'.

[eezymunny] 21/1/2019 13:22

From Paul Scott "Then how come they are so nonchalant about customers taking 5 months to pay PTSG's invoices, on average? It doesn't make sense at all to me"

www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-mon-21-jan-2019-cake-boom-rbn-ptsg-pen-438418/

[eezymunny] 21/1/2019 11:52

Anyone done the sums? They are having to borrow £3m to fund this. Surely if H2 had generated cash they wouldn't have needed to?

[mfhmfh] 21/1/2019 08:23

positive update and acquisition announcement today IMO.

[rivaldo] 21/1/2019 07:11

Excellent news:

- trading is nicely in line with expectations
- and a transformational Fire Solutions acquisition from cash

Trinity seems like a bargain. It's costing a net £7.7m, yet now makes £2.2m EBITDA, and the £5m deferred is based on achieving stretching targets.

Plus two-thirds of Trinity's £37m revenues are recurring as they're largely based on regulatory compliance, so won't be disappearing anywhere for Brexit, recession or anything else.

With PTSG's record for cross-selling, margin enhancement etc Trinity should be more than capable of fast growth from here.

[rivaldo] 11/1/2019 00:01

Interesting that you should say that immediately after one of my posts which spells out specifically a risk which no-one else has pointed out at all :o))

The profit forecasts I talk about are those from the various analysts. They're nothing to do with me!

You say yourself that up until Carillion they had not had bad debts - and even the Carillion debt was pretty small fry. And the reason for that? It was because PTSG were well aware of Carillion's problems and had adjusted their business with them accordingly. That's why I rate the management highly.

It's obvious to everyone that PTSG's cash flows are typically poor as per its sector. I've never stated otherwise and have never dismissed such comments AFAIK, lightly or otherwise. I'd be interested to see specific instances where I have if so.

But despite the cash flows, I believe PTSG are a very well-run company and are cheap at the current price - and much of their income emanates from blue chip companies or governmental organisations who will always pay up, even if over a lengthy time frame.

OT : it's amusing really. I've been here successfully since 2002, yet still some love to point out the inevitable losers in one's portfolio like GMAA rather than highlight the many multibaggers like ACSO, VLE, KWS, RNWH, SDI, FDP, PEG, IDEA, ETO, SOM etc....

As for GMAA, it could still easily be a big winner from here imho. I wouldn't be invested there otherwise. I guess you didn't read my recent posts 1323 and 1339 over there for example, which actually raised negatives, but then that wouldn't suit your preconceived idea....

[twirl] 10/1/2019 20:12

rivaldo>> the profit forecasts you keep raising include significant levels of debtors.

Despite the CXO saying that he is not concerned about the level of debtors and up until Carillion they had not had any bad debts - they lost around £300k to Carillion.

PTSG are sub contractors for a large part of their turnover and developers/FM providers have a poor record paying subcontractors.Many small subcontractors are ruined by large "intermediary" companies winning loss making contracts and squeezing sub contractors to make a profit. Whilst PTSG is clearly not in this small category the impact on forecast revenue of bad debts is a consideration for PTSG.

Whilst I appreciate your posts you do tend to dismiss rather lightly comments that are negative about the shares where you are invested in. eg GMAA

IMHO that devalues the credibility of the positive posts you make.

[rivaldo] 10/1/2019 14:34

As previously posted, based upon the current forecast of 12.43p EPS for this year, PTSG are on a 2019 P/E of only 12.3.

Assuming that PTSG will soon be on the acquisition path again given the cash pile, one can see that P/E dropping to just 10 or 11.

Hopefully too the upcoming trading update will indicate that PTSG traded at least in line with expectations for last year, especially with the very positive outlook in late September.

Of course threeputt, if they miss then the share price will react appropriately, as it would for any company. I can't particularly see any reason why they would do so given that recent outlook except perhaps in incurring additional costs related to the overall growth being experienced, especially in Fire Solutions.

But a P/E of 12.3 - with further earnings-enhancing acquisitions likely - means very little expectation is in the share price at the current 152.5p.

[threeputt] 10/1/2019 12:54

I've watched with interest the dialogue of late here and I have some sympathy with Eezy's views to an extent. Having bought originally at a low level (below £1) when I felt the risk was negligible I effectively sold the lot between 180 & 210 apart from a few other trades . I've thought about reentering as it is a good company and personally sentimental but I have to remind myself that there is a lot of expectation built into the share price now, that leaves it with little room for substantial upward movement imo and a good deal of potential risk to the downside if they miss expectations to any degree.

[eezymunny] 10/1/2019 12:04

Yes well, they'll be completing contracts that won't be repeating as well. It's called business. But no-one posts about the completed contracts. Just the new ones. Which is pretty pointless IMO. I mean if they are completing contracts of a total value higher than the new ones then profits will start to collapse, no?

PS Tesco just sold a dozen eggs...

[rp19] 10/1/2019 10:07

Hoovering up these contracts.

[rivaldo] 10/1/2019 10:04

Oops - I didn't remember that one :o))

More news today - a prestigious win (and definitely not posted before!):



"PTSG to go to work at Dyson Institute

Premier Technical Services Group PLC (PTSG) has been contracted to deliver electrical services at the Dyson Institute of Engineering and Technology (DIET).

Engineers from the Group’s electrical services division (West Midlands and South West) will attend the site in Malmesbury where they will install a new lightning and surge protection system at the institute’s new accommodation facility. The main contractor is Beard Construction.

The Dyson Institute was founded by the renowned inventor, designer and engineer James Dyson to address a skill shortage in engineering in the UK. In September 2017, the first student cohort enrolled for the B.Eng degree."

[mw8156] 09/1/2019 10:34

I see nothing wrong with the business itself; only concern is whether the profits accrue fairly to the shareholders other than Directors, continue to hold a small number.

[eezymunny] 09/1/2019 08:25

Masurenbigboy. Of course you have big winners and small losers and you're a genius. We all believe you. Sure. If you want to prove it try running a portfolio with real time updates (I did). Any muppet can claim big wins and small losses after the event. That's generally the behaviour of a loser IMVHO....

[rivaldo] 09/1/2019 07:17

Another very useful multi-year contract win for the Fire Services division:



"Premier Technical Services Group PLC (PTSG) has been contracted for a major project to deliver a range of fire solutions at Brunel Street Works – a residential-lead regeneration scheme in Canning Town, London.

Galliford Try Partnership is constructing 975 mixed-tenure homes at the site off Silvertown Way in Canning Town on behalf of Opal, a joint venture between Galliford Try and Thames Valley Housing. The £400m development project, which has a four-year construction programme, will see the homes built across five distinct blocks, ranging from nine to 26 storeys in height. PTSG’s Fire Solutions division (north-west branch, formerly UKS) will deliver wet/dry risers, commercial and residential sprinkler systems across the whole project.

The project illustrates PTSG’s rapidly growing capability in Fire Solutions. Since it was established in 2017, Fire Solutions has become the Group’s second-largest division and as demand continues to grow, it could become the largest. PTSG delivers multiple niche specialist services and often forms sustainable relationships with clients who benefit from access and safety, electrical services and building access solutions, also offered by the Group."