Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 26/4/2018 13:20

how long can she be working off 1x EBITDA and 1.5x FCF...the norm is 8-10....so that's where my 3-4 yr target is set....£5-7bn mcap

[leoneobull] 26/4/2018 07:42

Badger. Agreed. I also think that the pmo tlw differential will reduce during 2018 especially in H2. A final point on the current differential is that tlw's ebitda is already 2.5. PMO'S is a lot higher but heading for 3 by March 31 2019 if memory serves

[steve73] 26/4/2018 07:06

Brilliant - thanks Badger, I got distracted by just one of them playing one of my favourite pieces... Albinoni's adagio...

Incidentally, I found Pink Floyd's video of Live at Pompei on Y-T earlier... I last watched that about 20 years ago on the Murchison platform... I'd gone out for a 24 hour visit, and got fogged in for 4 days.. with nothing to do but watch platform TV, and Pompei was film of the week!! I love the way music can take you back so clearly to a time and a place...!!

OK.. now on to both of the cellos..

[badger60] 26/4/2018 06:37

Yep....PMO has a bit of catch(er)ing up to do but hardly justifies a derisory valuation of 20%-25% of the TLW mkt cap.Steve...for something a bit different take a look at 2cellos on YouTube.

[steve73] 26/4/2018 03:23

Thanks Leo... good to put some actual figures to my thoughts.

btw, Oslo has popped up on AIS again, heading for Gdansk.
Draft increase was 3.4m - equates to around 450-500kbo (depending on initial ballast condition), or around 15 kbopd average for the period.

(Off-topic, I'm currently listening to Dave Gilmour's Live in Gdansk concert from c. 2005.... this was also Wright's last major concert... well worth listening to or watching on u-tube).

Good to see the share price recovered most of it earlier losses, and with the oil price rising after London close, we should open a little higher later today.

..or if we get news of Gas Export... much higher.....

[leoneobull] 25/4/2018 16:02

Tlw's opex is significantly lower... But agree in next couple of years catcher will make the difference. Up until catcher, pmo was 55% oil 45% gas hence the big market cap differential

[leoneobull] 25/4/2018 16:00

Tlw generated 540 million in Fcf at end of 2017 Vs. 74 million pmo. Looking ahead pmo will catch up but only in H2. I'd be surprised to see much of a dent in pmo's debt in the May tu... But H2 Dec 18 will be looking very good by then

[badger60] 25/4/2018 15:44

Fwiw TLW is not so wonderful.......2018 production averaged 87.5k bbd.....but....9.6k bbd is by way of a shortfall insurance cover....which means that their physical production is 78k per day. PMO are giving 2018 guidance of 85k bbd......

[mercer95] 25/4/2018 13:35

Dilly Dilly Marv , keep your chin up

[steve73] 25/4/2018 07:48

TLW have a higher oil:gas split... ie. higher revenue in $/boe
Opex/bbl is probably a little less... due to production locations
Operating locations probably not quite as secure as ours.... which is in our favour.

Certainly nothing to warrant such a huge difference though....IMO

Marge will be along soon to say it's all down to TD.

[jelenko] 25/4/2018 07:38

Just had a quick l0ok at TLW's first quater update. Debt $3.1b half production hedged
similar production to PMO. I can't see anything to support the massive difference in market cap between PMO and TLW. Something like £2.3b difference! Come on guys, what have I missed, has to be something.

[badger60] 25/4/2018 02:14

Steve73...(off topic)Yes agreed. FTSE indexes should be for plain vanilla companies to stop the confusion and (possible multiple?) double accounting. They should introduce a separate ftse index for funds etc..

[marvin9] 24/4/2018 21:14

If TLW announce good results it might drag PMO up even though Oil has fallen back for a while.

[leoneobull] 24/4/2018 20:42

Big day tomorrow. Lloyds and tullow have trading updates. I have a lot of skin in both. With Dow down I expect a damp squid

[marvin9] 24/4/2018 20:28

Tuesday April 24, 2018

Brent prices hit $75 per barrel in early morning trading on Tuesday, the highest price in more than three years. While prices quickly fell back again, bullish sentiment remains strong.

The reasons are familiar – geopolitical events are flaring up at a time when the oil market is tightening.

The Trump administration is less than three weeks away from a key decision on whether or not to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.

“Let’s assume he will withdraw from the deal on May 12, we don’t know how much volume will be lost, we might see the $80 level for Brent,”

[oilretire] 24/4/2018 20:20

so ENSCO 100 is drilling catcher

Any info guys why?


Because that is/was always the plan. Latest info from the March FY results:


Drilling activities using the Ensco 100 rig have continued with operations ahead of schedule and under budget. Fourteen production and injection wells have now been drilled and completed with consistently positive reservoir results, with 12 of these wells being tied-in ahead of first oil. The rig is currently drilling the CCP6 well on the second Catcher template and will drill a further Catcher well before moving to the Burgman field. A total of 18 wells will be drilled by September 2018 before a planned drilling break.

[mercer95] 24/4/2018 20:07

Trump’s gone soft on pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal Leon, the markets didn’t like it & marv has gone missing, something is brewing

[leoneobull] 24/4/2018 19:34

Dow down 580 points. Has Trump tweeted

[markymar] 24/4/2018 18:00

hxxps://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8752661

so ENSCO 100 is drilling catcher

Any info guys why?

[jelenko] 24/4/2018 15:50

He's worse than Marvin