Premier African Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[hotrocketshares] 02/2/2018 14:28

ZIM Connections just been whispering ZULU partner imminent

Deal being finalised finally some good news

[doctor 69] 02/2/2018 08:29

Tedoby. Exactly , This is overall excellent

[doctor 69] 02/2/2018 08:21

This is a steady build , not a quick overnight job , i is a build to the dfs . All good ,

[tedoby2] 02/2/2018 08:21

It's a good RNS this morning. It gives us an awful lot of succinct information.

It tells us that some of the drilling being done is to purposely delineate the extremities of the zones. If and when that's complete it will be enable the resource to be quantified in both cu m terms and tonnes with reasonable accuracy. From there and extrapolating the information in the scoping study Prem should be in a position to value the total resource and progress negotiations more meaningfully towards a j.v with a suitable strategic partner.

It gives us more information on the grades which look consistent if not better.

It tells us that there are discussions in progress with interested parties and it tells us there's a substantial increase in interest from foreign investors which shouldn't be a surprise.

It also tell us the high ratio of spodumene to petalite is consistent with those previously recorded which is also good to know.

[mike_f] 02/2/2018 08:18

It seems clear to me that we need to see something tangible. Need 90% owned of RHA and JV partner on it or on Zulu a JV partner/MoU has been agreed. Only then will it add any value to the share price it seems.

[cambradjones] 02/2/2018 08:08

Bet the current rise in the share price is wiped out in the first 10 mins.Would be nice to close the day nicely up but this is Prem remember.Lets see.

[dmitribollokov] 02/2/2018 08:00

The are not exactly bumper intersects are they?

[the bull] 02/2/2018 07:43

"Rapid Payback" and the word "Massive"

[bestofbest] 02/2/2018 07:39

No time frame given for the next drilling programme. At least he cant be fashionably late with updating the market!

[dplewis1] 02/2/2018 07:26

Despite the bad language he appears to be correct. That RNS is utter plop..

[the bull] 02/2/2018 00:19

you little charmer

[jungmana] 31/1/2018 22:56

I hold 8m ( having trimmed ) at about 0.4p average. Will be happy to get my money back and some .Have no faith in GR. I can list half a dozen calamitous decisions he has made in last 2 years and that tells me is best for him to step aside.

[dmitribollokov] 31/1/2018 22:50

So you would be happy if the share price only trebles from here? sounds like you should to buy an enormous amount more...

[jungmana] 31/1/2018 22:30

Ihnc - top class posts there. Exactly my view too and could not have written it better. As i said earlier am just fed up with GRs endless stories. 0.6p and am gone from here for good.

[ihavenoclue] 31/1/2018 20:37

It's all good looking at what Zulu could earn when in production but let's look at some other figures.

In July 2015, when the share price was 0.75p, PREM said the share price should 10 bag in a year. For it to do that the price has to 33 bag in 6 months.

In November 2015, before the newest Zulu results and with the 0.5p a share, GR was complaining that we should be valued at £150m MINIMUM. The price has to 9 bag just to get what GR said should be the minimum price.

GR has FAILED to show the market the true value of PREM and his solution was to split Zulu and float another company ????

Surely for PREM to stand a chance of realising true value GR HAS to stand down ? It is the ONLY solution I can see as GR in charge does NOT work.

[ihavenoclue] 31/1/2018 19:17

tedoby231 Jan '18 - 10:26 - 8151 of 8152
0 1 0
From the investors meeting last week we now know that drilling on site at Zulu continues apace with a view to drilling out as much as is needed to get to a DFS stage as soon as practically possible and we were told 5,000m has already been drilled.

===============================

Has it even been confirmed when they will have completed enough drills to be able to complete a DFS ? I just want a clear timeline from here to completion of DFS.

Also the talk of "deals" - it seems like we have heard this promise of "offers" and "deals" for a LONG time now but have never heard any of them. GR just throws out little crumbs of "deals" and "offers" he has turned down. It is no wonder the market isn't a fan of PREM when NOTHING has materialised from these talks. It seems to be brought out time and time again to appease shareholders ... what I want to see if the deals actually being finalised. Imagine that ... a deal that leads somewhere !!

GR keeps repeating the same line and the same excuse time and time again and expects a different reaction from the market. It worked early on but now the market is tired of it so will no longer react the way GR wants it to.

Also it is NO good spinning out parts of the company when the same thing that caused the disconnect is controlling the new spin offs. GR needs to step aside and let someone who can talk the talk AND walk the walk take over our investment then maybe the disconnect in asset value to market cap can be reduced/eliminated.

All IMHO
Regards
IHNC

[doctor 69] 31/1/2018 12:02

Yes staggering potential

[tedoby2] 31/1/2018 10:26

From the investors meeting last week we now know that drilling on site at Zulu continues apace with a view to drilling out as much as is needed to get to a DFS stage as soon as practically possible and we were told 5,000m has already been drilled. Although GR would like to get to a total of around 20,000m to establish an accurate final resource in the campaign eventually having checked I believe very little more 10,000m might be all that's needed to give the necessary information to get to a DFS.

I'm sure most of us know this but if anyone didn't it's important to note that the drilling company is bearing the cost of drilling in exchange for equity and therefore it has no affect on Prems cash position.

It's also important to be aware that although a deal hasn't been finalised yet Prem have received offers from interested parties to pay for the cost of getting Zulu to it's DFS stage on the same basis. It seems to me very likely GR will be accepting one of those proposals if it offers best value which it almost will I'm sure. So the exercise is unlikely to put pressure on Prems cash position and forecasts either.

Attendees at the meeting were also told that drilling was now focussed and being categorised in zones in zones currently divided into 7 if I recall that correctly. Not a bad idea I thought at the time as the current categorisation is a little confusing. Some drilling has been done to define the extremities of the resource and to get a clearer picture of the physical size the prospect is but we weren't given any information and unfortunately there wasn't enough time to get into that level of detail.

Setting aside the Tantalum which in itself is not insignificant I can still envisage the new Zuluco easily having a ROM of around 1.5m to 2.0m tonnes p.a when at "steady state" early in the production period and initially adopting the Lithium Concentrate route to market whilst the new carbonate plant is being built in Bulawayo's Enterprise Zone .

Interestingly Pilbara Minerals who Zulu is sometimes benchmarked against had an initial ROM target of 2.0m tonnes p.a. in their mining plan have subsequently increased their target and it now stands at 4.0m tonnes p.a.

At 1.5m tonnes ROM Zuluco would produce around 15k to 20k tonnes of Li2O which would convert into roughly 175k to 235k tonnes of Spodumene Concentrate and 75k to 100k tonnes of Petalite Concentrate at the anticipated 70/30 split and just over a 1.06% grade.

Using the "earnings metric" the lower figures would give the company a revenue of around $220m p.a at current off-take rates ($900/1000/t for > 6% Spodumene). With AISC's at say $90m p.a that would give us the key "earnings" figure of $130m. A sensible P/E ratio could be said to be not less than 5 which would produce a Market Cap of $650m - another key figure. Some would see that as very conservative given Zuluco could have a LOM of 100 years or more if current unofficial resource estimates are anywhere near right. They might think under those circumstances double that so a P/E of 10 would be more realistic.

Staying with the concentrate option and a P/E of 5 would give Zuluco a Market Cap of around $1.0bn. That looks about right if you benchmark it against it's competitors and piers.

Once the Carbonate plant in Bulawayo has been completed and becomes operational Zuluco's fundamentals change dramatically. Using a factor of 2.473 15k tonnes of Li2O converts to approximately 37k tonnes of LCE and 20k tonnes of converts to just under 50k tonnes.

Assuming a revenue of $13,000/tonne after off-takers commissions that would give the new Zuluco a revenue of $481m and $650m at the two production run rates under consideration. Also assuming AISC's at say $150m p.a that would give us the key "Earnings" figures of $331m and $500m p.a. and produce a Market Cap for Zuluco of $1.65bn and $2.5bn respectively. But still inly using a P/E ratio of 5. If that's right that would give Prem a notional Market Cap from Zuluco of somewhere between $825m and and $1.25bn based upon a j.v split of 50/50 and it's currently less than $15m!

As we all not been finally decided yet how Zulu will be handled. Whether it's kept under the Prem umbrella or it's spun off clearly an opportunity of this magnitude needs to be given very careful and due consideration. I respect and understand that if it allows Prem's shareholders to gain the very best rewards.

There's no way of knowing what proportion on a new Zuluco Prem investors will be awarded if it's spun off or what the Market Cap will be at launch. I believe anything between $60m and $100m launch price would be about right with say 60% assigned to Prem shareholders, 30% to a partner or partners and the rest to make a market etc in that case. If any of the these figures are anywhere near right Prem investors are going to be very handsomely rewarded indeed. Perhaps by a factor of 3x their current investment on launch and as much as 30x (30 bagger) or more within 3 years or so if all goes well. No doubt there'll be a cut-off date when the shares in Prem's shareholders hands will be "frozen" whilst counted in order to qualify. So "you would need to be in it to win it!" as they say

You may chose to downgrade or adjust the figures. They're only meant to be approximate and I accept they're just based upon my opinion. But given at the higher output we could still be looking at a LOM several decades as I say some might argue they could even be conservative - especially the P/E ratio of 5 I've used.

AIMHO.

GLA

[doctor 69] 31/1/2018 08:44

Impressive buy 9.6 m

[tedoby2] 31/1/2018 07:40

Bull I wasn't expecting you to "charge" quite so much!

But then again feisty Bulls generally do so I suppose so I should have expected it.

GLA

[the bull] 30/1/2018 22:47

Guesses then. Prem get all back bar 10%, so keep 50% and sell 40% to JV partner

That'll be £750.00 for the advice, business class out to Harare and back and a spot of sightseeing thrown in. I was going to say a spot of tennis at the Bulawayo Club with George but I don't think they have a court, so will settle for a Ramon Allones on the terrace

[doctor 69] 30/1/2018 20:34

i have a clue @ interesting this one to see where we go .

Firstly Get 25% plus of RHA back

then find someone to put in i guess £5m .

get drills going for 20,000m and then circum comes in at modest £10m .

then build a mine , then shares 10p plus .

pretty logical and not simple , but who knows