Polarean Imaging Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 20/11/2020 03:40

Recently listed on the ASX - competition, or not?

[acuere] 12/11/2020 10:46

FDA response on fast track due by 06 Dec. If positive there would be an Rns, not sure if they have to notify if declined.

In addition the company stated in HY report they hope to receive further orders this year.


“Researchers continue to apply for and receive grants to purchase our polariser systems. We are in discussions with several potential customers and anticipate additional orders during calendar year 2020”

[markstevenkirby80] 12/11/2020 09:37

How long now before we get news, cheers

[c0lin1] 10/11/2020 13:52

yes but lots in this space were over leveraged and had to sell whatever they could to meet margin requirements.

[acuere] 10/11/2020 13:26

Yes looks like the vaccine discovery (hopefully) will give those on the sidelines the dip they’re hoping for. Strange reaction really as there is a clear need for these lung image machines without the Covid factor.
And if there were not another case of Covid? Well so far over 10 million Americans have caught it, and early data suggested 40% of these develop ARDS (accuse respiratory disease syndrome) of which 20% of those are severe. So that would be over 800,000 Americans with long term lung damage from Covid.

[countdracula55] 10/11/2020 06:49

Punters just pulling some cash out to buy ftse stocks for a quick profit....they will be back in here very soon.This is not a covid play.Gla.

[supernumerary] 08/11/2020 21:28

lol - is this the dystopian sci-fi thread?

Talking of which, can anybody name book or author?

'At last we stood at the southern border of T-City. Before us reared the tallest building in all of old Nuevo York, what used to be old man Trump's very HQ, before he was elected president and got sliced and diced like he did.'

Clue: from March 1996 :)

[moontheloon] 08/11/2020 21:04

Isn't there a cheaper machine in China... They invented covid so why not the monitoring of it?

[countdracula55] 08/11/2020 20:48

Agreed loglorry....thats another like from the Prince of darkness.Gla.

[loglorry1] 08/11/2020 20:39

I looked into competing systems before I took part in the clear up trade at 14p.

I even set up a call with a top MD at Duke University.

Polarean are the only real commercial system here and certainly the only one who have a medical-grade about to be approved system. Sure it's possible to build something yourself to polarised Xe but that's a small part of the problem. You then need a secure, safe, reliable, consistent source and more importantly a well-calibrated machine to interpret the results.

I'm very confident this can't and won't be copied in a hurry and certainly not by their potential customers.

Very happy for people to kick the tyres here. Bring it on.

[cooltools] 08/11/2020 20:11

I didn't say that, so don't have to answer.

But by your figures, 25 out of 169 is 15%, though as you say, there may be other research facilities who could be interested. And as I mentioned, that thesis stated "A number of high-throughput commercial systems are available for polarisation of 3He (e.g. Polarean Inc, Durham, NC) and 129Xe [63], and home-built 129Xe systems with low-cost components can now attain comparable polarisation levels [64, 65]". So research institutions with the budget (!) may go for POLX but there are alternatives.

So APAD's assertion is not unreasonable. There could be organic growth for POLX in the research market, but that's not what leads to riches...

[supernumerary] 08/11/2020 19:48

So why don't you or apad explain why you think 'their research market is approaching saturation'?

As I said, I'm a bit bemused by that suggestion but I accept that I might be missing something and would appreciate clarification, rather than whinges about bubbles.

[cooltools] 08/11/2020 19:12

Surely the purpose of this board is to help people who may be thinking of investing in POLX? Unfortunately there's no summary at the top of this page, which would be incredibly helpful in getting folks up to speed on basic questions. Check out e.g. for a typical example (another board APAD & I follow).

Boards such as this can easily become bubbles - it's very helpful to ask awkward questions. Better to know the weaknesses before rather than after. APAD's not deramping (if that's the worry) but rather undertaking due diligence. It's not unusual to buy a few shares to keep them in mind before investing more heavily. Not that APAD needs any protecting, as is not thin skinned, but I can assure you the agenda is well meaning and helpful to all who may be reading.

[supernumerary] 08/11/2020 18:05

I'm a bit bemused by the suggestion that 'their research market is approaching saturation'. With 25 or so sales to date? Wikipedia gives 169 of them their own page, and doubtless there are many more attached to hospitals and universities. And that's only in the States! Still a long way to go imo.

[slicethepie] 08/11/2020 16:03

Confused, you have bought polx a couple of times in the past yet now need to ask quite basic questions, have a view on their capital adequacy and have not followed the reasoning for accelerated approval which is a better understanding of what long term damage is done by covid19. You clearly have an agenda so no more help from me!

[acuere] 08/11/2020 15:05

Application for accelerated approval was not expected. But in an interview Richard gave to vox market I think he played it down, pretty much suggesting that they applied for it because they could and therefore had nothing to lose. The main reason I could see it being granted accelerated approval would be down to the long Covid angle.
I’d expect a placing off the back of FDA approval at a price far North of these levels.

[apad] 08/11/2020 12:54

Thanks again, It would have taken me a lot of delving to get to that, slicethepie.

loglorry1
I take a different view. I am only interested in revenue growth at this stage. I'm assuming that their research market is approaching saturation and that they will be transitioning to use when they get FDA approval. Given the capital goods nature of the installation I expect that to be slow, especially given the current hospital environments.
I also see no particular reason why the FDA should grant accelerated approval.
If they get accelerated approval I expect a placing - hopefully at a premium.
If the approval takes the normal length of time, I still expect a placing.

I have bought POLX a couple of times and am looking for some weakness to increase, which is not helped by tintins recommending them 😊
apad

[slicethepie] 08/11/2020 12:17

Is it your view that AIM was simply convenient, easier, known and cheaperYes, plus Richard Morgan was known in London by investors.

[loglorry1] 08/11/2020 11:51

Apad it is a conservative market. The US hospitals buying a Polx machine will buy the approved gas also from polx. The FDA approval gives them exclusivity nobody else can sell the tech. This assures high margins and passive revenue. I expect margins to be c70% on turnover of around $100m very quickly growing at probably 40% p.a.

70m gross profit growing at 40% with 70% gross margins will probably give them a p/e of at least 50. That's potentially $3.5bn market cap or a 20x from here.

[apad] 08/11/2020 11:37

On admission
Amphion Innovations 23.2%
Bastiaan Driehuys, 16.5%

I think directors holdings now are about 11%.

I still find it odd to think that I own part of a holding company that only holds a one US company. Anyway Ta again slicethepie.

apad

[apad] 08/11/2020 11:12

That's useful slicethepie. Ta.
Driehuys was at Amersham I seem to remember.
Is it your view that AIM was simply convenient, easier, known and cheaper?
They had bought out all of the GE technology and protection by then. $40million spent by GE!

Interesting circles.
Driehuys has a chair at Duke and the licenses (3/4) are to protect his original patents, which seem to be systems and interpretation, rather than the add-on kit needed to tune an MRI scanner to polarized Xenon. I remember that his original work was on He. Might be wrong about that.

apad

[slicethepie] 08/11/2020 11:05

I will give you a bit of help. Polarean initial investor was Amphion, a quoted uk based fund that backed tech businesses these include kromek. All these companies were floated on aim as this was the local market and given the relatively small sums being raised on flotation it made complete sense to float on aim. The ceo of amphion was chairman of polx until last year when amp went under as its business was funded by debt and they had to dump their polx shares

[apad] 08/11/2020 10:31

I was hoping someone else would have done the hard yards, acuere.
I am ploughing through the admission document and the last annual report at the moment.
At every turn I am asking myself why they went onto AIM. 😊

Having complained, it is interesting.

E.g
"Bastiaan Driehuys Founder and Chief Technology Officer was a co-inventor of hyperpolarized gas MRI while completing his Doctorate in atomic Physics at Princeton University in the 1990’s. He holds 32 granted US patents."

I take these patents as being irrelevant as the main work came out of GE through a Subsidiary, in conjunction with Duke University who have twice licensed their technology to Polarean.

"Dec 19 Polarean Annual Report
We continued to invest in our intellectual property portfolio during the year. Key new patent filings involving gas exchange and pulmonary vascular disease were added, and an expanded and enhanced license agreement with Duke was finalised including all of the most recent developments in pulmonary vascular disease assessment and data and image analysis software."


apad