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Polar Capital Share Discussion Threads
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|Thanks for the comments. Could be a good week for these with "hard brexit" and the Trump inauguration. Think i may sell a few if we get some euphoria.|
|Agree mostly, but not re arbitraging. It's not possible to arbitrage because we can't exercise PCFS except at expiry. We don't know what will happen to share and sub price between now and end of July - hopefully a lot higher by then!
Also not so sure re institutional investors. They tend to hold a lot which they got for free when PCFS were first issued. Otherwise if you look at trades they are mostly fairly small and the very few private investors who know about sub shares.|
|kenmitch - I'm not sure I agree that the fixed exercise date would make much difference to arbitage buyers. The only thing I can see that would discourage arbitrage is limited liquidity. The sub shares also have the benefit of insurance against a major market disruption, which will doubtless appeal to some institutional investors.
FWIW I intend to ensure I can exercise myself, thus doing away with nasty discounts from the trustee or selling ahead of final exercise. In fact I may buy a load more ahead of the final exercise date as some of those unable to exercise are likely to dump.
But that's still some way off. In the meantime, the gearing remains highly attractive!|
Yes. A trustee has been appointed. So investors not wanting to or can't afford to exercise can just let the subs lapse.
Yes again. There are risks leaving it to the trustee. For starters because the trustee will have a lot of lapsed subs to exercise it's likely he/they will have to sell the shares lower than the sell price at the time.
But even then, as has just happened with recently expired SLES, the trustee price return after their expenses can be a lot better than the final sub share sell price.
E.g Final SLES sell price was 50p but trustee got just over 70p. But share sell price was about 403p so at 320p exercise price you can see 70p is no better than OK.
Another risk using the trustee is if the share price falls after sub share final expiry date but before trustee has exercised. Then if share is not much above exercise price you could end up with nothing.
So best advice is sell the sub in the market if the price is OK but to leave it to trustee if PCFS is at a big discount at expiry.
Btw. PCFS is unlikely to attract arbitrage buyers as the subs can only be exercised at expiry. If PCFS could be exercised at any time THEN the current big discount would attract arbitrage buyers.|
|Well starting to bounce now and lots of trades going through.|
|kenmitch - a quick question for you please given your post above. What happens please if you don't exercise your warrants at the end...do you get paid the proceeds through the trustee and is there any risk in this process? Discount edged up further again today.|
|Only you and I here. Hoping this will blast through to 20p or so very quickly now. It's going to attract some buying as an arbitrage opportunity soon.|
|Have also posted this on PCFT and "the warrant thread" bb. Probably very few readers on any of them to benefit if bank rally continues!
PCFS are now exceptionally cheap and that's despite a 250000 buy at just 12.2p today.
Share is currently 130.25p to sell, so PCFS is worth 15.25p. So 12.2p is a real bargain.
Guess that PCFS will now stay at a discount but until close to expiry it surely won't get much wider?
150p for the share looks a reasonable target if banks continue to rally on Trump infrastructure and other spending hopes and the increased chance of higher interest rates as a result, which are good for bank margins.
Even if the sub goes to an even bigger discount.. say only 25p with the share at 150p compared with the 35p it would then be worth,, that 25p still double the current price for a target 12% or so on the share price.
And if the discount is wide at expiry and not wishing to exercise, then with such a big discount, it could pay off for once just leaving it to the trustee.
SLES are about to be exercised. Share is over £4 so surely Trustee will get better price than the 50p final sell price, when the share was also a lot lower than it is now. We'll know within a few days.|
|Yes, this is looking very attractive for further upward movement with the re-rating of banks as interest rates go up. 7 months to go. Double discount. 12p versus 15p - then the ordinary shares are on a 10p discount to the 140p NAV. If the share price continues to climb and the discount goes to a premium then we are going to get some explosive movement here. Fingers crossed! So, at the moment they are on a 50% discount to Net Asset Value. Bought mine at 5p and they have been down to about 2p before the sharp upward moves of late. Certainly not a low risk investment, but on balance will stick with it until at least 15p.|
|Posted this on "the warrant thread" and also PCFT bb just now in case anyone here is interested.
Posted here (post 3919) on Dec 8th with PCFS AT 8.75p to buy when share was 123.75p to sell.
Set 130p share price target which would mean PCFS worth 15p.
Share almost got there today, but despite several buys, PCFS is now at a discount and only 12p to buy and 11.25p to sell.
NAV has been rising steadily and was up another 2p today to 140p and 137 if allowing for the now strong likelihood of all the subs being exercised.
Bank share rally is continuing.
Target another 10p on the share price in the next couple of months to 140p and PCFS would be worth 25p. Assuming the PCFS price goes to a bigger discount and so "only" 20p, that still gives nearly 70% upside on 7% share price rise.
Hope a few bought earlier but if not high chance it is still not too late to buy, especially bearing in mind PCFS is 3p below what it is actually worth."|
|75,000 buy this morning.|
|Hello CI, I am in today. But don't know too much of PCFS. Just got a tip from somewhere. How far it can go? 12p or 24p?|
|Looking Good !|
|Financials beginning to look better and with the prospect of interest rate increases soon in the US and via the ECB, subs are looking tempting still|
|Underlying now at a 12% discount, but there's still a lot of selling pressure according to my daily HL data.|
|Co trying to send a signal to the market by buying back 50000 shares for cancellation and warrants gone 8-11p spread as result.|
its the oxman
|Underlying looking to break back above 100p so warrants may have to pick up soon.|
its the oxman
|Yes, I hold these but, unfortunately, bought in at 18p, subsequently bought more at 8p.
I think the potential is there for significant gains. Exercise date is not for 3 years and so the question is (short of a World War) what is the potential for PCFT, now at 96p? Well, over 3 years and in an improving world economy, I feel somewhere around 30% is a reasonable if not unambitious target. Doing the sums this would give PCFS a value of around 14p. And if PCFT really motored - well, I'm beginning to get over-excited now!|
|Just started this to see if anyone else is interested. Thankful I did not buy earlier but still waiting. Underlying now trading at a discount to nav which is not helpful as many trusts go out to a c.10% discount. Not sure what is going to set this on an upward trend anytime soon but if financials rally then i guess the gains here could be considerable.|
its the oxman
|Offers the potential for lucrative returns come 2017 when the warrants expire, provided the underlying can get past 115p. Not looking too hot at the moment with the warrants at c.8p and the underlying PCFT trading at the lowest its been - but perhaps that is the opportunity. Surely the financials can come good one last time, can't they ?|
its the oxman
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