Polar Capital Technology Share Discussion Threads

[mart] 19/1/2004 14:56

NAV now quoted as 201p.

[churchtower] 19/1/2004 09:25

Bought into Polar this morning. Consolidation pattern going back to 4/9/2003/ Now threatening to break out upwards. A move through 175 would give a short term target of 190. CH.

[banger] 18/1/2004 18:40

Firkin, have you considered FTT, seems that it moves quicker when nasdaq improves, compare to PCT over the last 9 months.
I have held PCT for 2 years, previously held FTT in 2000 bubble days selling at 600 ish, now considering back in on these.

[firkin] 13/1/2004 10:32

The pound has appreciated by 5.7% since September 2003. Therefore the assets held in USD have depreciated by the same percentage. This only applies to dollar assets and not to euro assets where the euro has strengthened against the pound by 2% over the same period. The conclusion to draw is that while dollar asstes have diminished, euro assets have gained albeit by a lower percentage. This seems to indicate that the NAV will be about 4 percentage points less than if the exchange rates had remained static. That is, the current nav would be likely to have moved up from 195p to 202p. Therefore since last September we have lost about 6p from the likely warrant price now at 71.5p would have been about 77p - 79p.
I can live with that. The signs for the Nas are good for the medium term and there is a limit to the dollar weakness that the US Treasury will not exceed because the imports will cost so much more.

I hope I am right about this because the PCTW is about the best geared investment out there.

[mart] 05/1/2004 09:02

Looking good this am.

[and1] 31/12/2003 11:26

market makers are also building a solid support level at 160p - 170p in advance of further moves, they may also be building up their share inventory in advance of further moves by 'fooling' investors to thinking that this is a ceiling.
in any case it all depends on whether nasdaq will build a support or resistance at 2000 in the medium term.

[and1] 30/12/2003 23:11

nav is 200pence (not dollar cents) while pct is at 162pence, a 20% discount, so this is not explained by the dollar weakness more by fear that nasdaq may pull back after hitting 2000
when there has been a tech revival for over 6 months and nasdaq is currently at 2000 on a two day closing basis, this divergence can only be explained as a temporary phenomenon, . the two will come together eventually. pct should hopefully reach 220p in the short to medium term when it is abundantly clear that the rise of nasdaq is not a blip and that 2000 will form a support for the medium term.

[wallace morris] 30/12/2003 11:18

Weemonkey, my guess is that the divergance between PCT and the NASDAQ can be explained by the weakness of the Dollar. On the face of it the US markets appear to be performing strongly, but converting $ performance back to Sterling reveals that they are probably just treading water from a UK perspective.

Personally, I think that US markets are looking very expensive now, and I'm expecting a correction before too long. I made 40% on PCTW in a matter of weeks in the autumn, but have long-sinced sold them. IMO the only Bull market in town is Gold.

Wal'

[weemonkey] 30/12/2003 08:34

why is Pct no longer in step with the nasdaq? . until beginning of oct used to be highly correlated and now suddenly not. used to follow it almost step for step. is the net asset value keeping step while the shares are not? or have they got assets in the trust that that are underperfroming badly? often seems to me that investment trusts go in and out of favour massively. and is pct in the doldrums as investors loses interest and invest in the underlying shares themselves rather than the investment trust? any well researched examples welcome for th reasons for its sudden quite accelerated underperformance.

[papillon] 03/9/2003 13:22

ftt seems to be doing rather better than pct

[humdinger] 02/9/2003 00:42

>energyi,

Explained why on the other thread but though strongly linked I believe it makes sense to keep the PCT and PCTW threads separate.

BTW I think PCT is an excellent buy and I fully intend to exercise the option to buy the underlying share come 2005 if the discount to NAV hasn't got closer to zero or even gone positive by then.

PCT charts look cool :)

[energyi] 02/9/2003 00:14

John,
I like your thread.
Why not put some charts in the Header?

[humdinger] 02/9/2003 00:11

>energyi,

Well worth a look but warrants are better gearing if you want to go long - why not check out the thread here on the pbb?

[wallace morris] 01/9/2003 22:00

Energyi

Interesting to find our paths crossing here, so far from the world of gold & Avocet. What is your take on PCT/PCTW? If there is a genuine recovery afoot in the US & the Far East, then PCT (and even more so PCTW) would seem a good way to ride the wave, especially given the fund's double-digit discount to NAV (which should evaporate rapidly if economic growth becomes reality).

Wal'

[energyi] 01/9/2003 11:53

Worth a look?

POLAR CAPITAL TECHNOLOGY TRUST PLC
As at close of business on 28th August 2003, the unaudited fully diluted net
asset value per share, calculated in accordance with the AITC formula was
181.94p and the unaudited undiluted net asset value per share, calculated on the
same basis, was 195.05p

Price / NAV :
161.5 / 181.94 = 88.8%, 11.2% Discount

[energyi] 01/9/2003 11:51

POLAR CAPITAL TECHNOLOGY


PCT quote:

[wallace morris] 01/9/2003 11:36

The manager's recent move to 'overweight' Far Eastern stocks is looking shrewd, especially after last night's 3% rise in Japan.

Wal'

[wallace morris] 19/8/2003 13:04

Back in the heady days of the tech boom, PCT traded at a premium to NAV of some 20%. Despite the recent rally, the shares are still trading at a DISCOUNT to NAV of well over 10%.

If recovery is genuine and this rally is the 'real deal', then techs will lead the way once again. In such a situation, expect the discount to NAV to revert to a premium. This should gear-up potential returns in the short-term at least. For example, a 20% rise in NAV accompanied by a 10% discount reverting to a 10% premium would cause a 46% uplift in the share price.

For even greater gearing consider the warrants. The above scenario, if it began today, would generate an increase in the price of the warrants of over 130%.

The big question is "is this rally genuine & sustainable?". I don't know, but I'm using the warrants to balance my otherwise gold-focussed portfolio just in case it is.

Wal'

[firkin] 24/7/2003 08:08

energyi

At the agm yesterday the manager stated that his policy is to buy back for cancellation as many warrants as possible before 30th September 2005 so as to avoid dilution of the ordinary shares. What if any do you think will be the effect on the market price of the warrants?

The warrants have rarely exceeded the difference between the exercise price of £1 and the then current share price except recently with the effect of the bear market on the ord share price and the time value remaining. Would a buy back program change this. Hopefully - yes- but I fear not.

He was most positive about Japan tech shares saying they represent the best value in that area for 14 years. He has recently increased weighting from 5% to 18.7%. Quite impressive! Is there a specialist Japanese trust (with warrants) to take asvantage of this opinion?

[energyi] 15/7/2003 14:06

Having another look at this for an ARB:
Maybe BUY the Wts &
SHORT the NDX.
But PCT looks too expensive to enter this now

[errol0001] 18/6/2003 17:04

two protected trades revealed at close, reckon the 144 Buy was at opening.

[errol0001] 18/6/2003 15:36

thanks, i'm out for now - + £2.50 !! big time... this manager doesn't sell
which is not profitable on this market.

[ashtongray] 17/6/2003 19:03

For me, this rally is likely to run out of steam soon, so my answer is (b) time to take profits - which is what I am doing. I expected a rally from the March lows, but you have to ask yourself have the underlying realities changed so much since then that current levels will form the new floor?

Well worth reading energyi's current bear thread, lot of challenging thoughts there even if you don't buy all the theories.

[errol0001] 17/6/2003 17:11

does anyone care to comment - is this rally likely to go on this week or are you getting the feeling that its time to take a small profit while in the black?

[energyi] 10/2/2003 11:59

= = =
Longer Term Chart


= = = = =
LINKS:
PCT: Anyone Following?:
Humdinger's "Polar Bull" thread: