Plutus Powergen Share Discussion Threads

[davr0s] 07/11/2018 20:47

I just use end of day prices and volume only - it's all I need. I trail profit on a moving average (that is calculated to fit with market conditions - my software works out how tight or not to trail) and I set an initial stop to a measure of natural volatility for each share. I use no indicators whatsoever as they are all lagging - I don't believe that indicators or anything else can predict where price will go. My approach has no assumed prediction whatsoever - just probabilities with the aim of winners being bigger than losers and I seek to buy emerging strength backed with volume. But if strength fails I'm out like with this one. A big chunk of the U.K. market has broken trend this year so it's naturally drawn me into cash since last summer (2017) apart from a couple of short periods of strength that quickly petered out.My analysis is home grown but draws upon principles of the best traders out there (I've studied in some detail what they do and picked the best bits) it's taken me about 2-3 years work and I still have many aspects to work on. I took early retirement so am on this full time and my goal is to generate a decent return on my capital with low drawdown and not need to have another proper job again. I analyse the whole UK market each night - takes about 3 hours on a high spec server after the market closes. I do the US at weekends as the market is bigger plus it behaves differently - I'm only just getting into the US market but has some advantages over the UK so it's my focus whilst the UK is doing nothing!

[pbanus] 07/11/2018 19:47

fascinating insights DavR0s, in terms of trending up are you using relative price strength or moving averages? What kind of data analysis gives you the underlying strength of the markets, some sort of market liquidity indicator?

[marvinridesagain] 07/11/2018 19:44

That would depend on what sector your investing into; trying to use your method with Penny Aim stocks is near impossible due to speed manipulation of stocks.

[davr0s] 07/11/2018 19:37

I purely trade nowadays as I realised years ago that no matter how much fundamental analysis you do shares do one of three things - trend up, down or trade flat often independent of the analysis. So anything that breaks trend gets chopped without question (like this one a while back) and anything that is going up gets left alone or even added to. Conceptually very simple and the opposite of what many do. The trouble with holding or buying weakness is no one knows how low it will drop. My approach sucks me into strong markets and scales me out of weak markets before the big damage is done so I'm largely unscathed after Octobers sell off. I'm 1% off my all time highs and just 1-2% invested. I'll happily deploy the other 98% when I start seeing strength. The hard bit is working how to transition into and out of the market and have spent the last 2-3 years writing analysis code to guide me. At the moment it's telling me to be extremely selective in the UK. The US is a little better.

[pbanus] 07/11/2018 19:13

very interesting thoughts Davros, what's your mix of trading rules?

[davr0s] 07/11/2018 19:03

All this analysis and speculation - I just sell when the trend breaks as they can fall a long way. This one has lost nearly 70% since I sold out. Am astonished that people will hold shares trending down or even worse add to their positions

[marvinridesagain] 07/11/2018 18:57

Defo Glug Glug lol

[marvinridesagain] 07/11/2018 18:55

Its what they do best, everything is under the radar, slippery as a bucket full of eels the lot of em.

SavyBishop always did post information that could have only come from someone close within PPG.

How this has not been noticed by the FSA truly is a mystery.

Thanks again for that info,

[pbanus] 07/11/2018 18:54

@bishop, you're assuming that the underlying assets are worth what they have been in the past, perhaps there's a problem with them that has sunk their value. The annual report suggested cost of £3M to fix the diesel sites vis-a-vis emissions, perhaps this has been a bigger problem and/or there have been other drains on cash giving the company a CASH/LIQUIDITY problem. We heard how admin expenses would need to be scaled back in the annual report, maybe some other problems have cropped up. Not so much Toot Toot anymore, now GLUG, GLUG, GLUG!

[bishopawn] 07/11/2018 18:45

market capitalisation only £4.5 million at this level. Way below the underlying value of assets.

[bishopawn] 07/11/2018 18:41

There's another large dump at the end of the day.

[pbanus] 07/11/2018 18:34

4.27pm someone sold 2.5M shares. I'm wondering whether Chelverton are getting out, some heavy selling day by day now. 2.5M also sold yesterday in two chunks, I think they're below the disclosable limit, so it wouldn't prompt a TR1.

[marvinridesagain] 07/11/2018 17:45

No way up from here, who in there right might would borrow these 2 part time clowns any money to take PPG forward.

PPG is dead and buried, has been for the last 18 months.

The rudderless, good ship PLUTUS has finally sunk .

[pbanus] 07/11/2018 17:27

I wonder if those closer to the company know something, cash problems for instance. Look at what happened to mysquar this week.

[lilah1] 07/11/2018 16:41

That wont be happening, as probate takes up to a year to sort through

[lilah1] 07/11/2018 12:23

isa2020: What do you mean by that, please expand / explain

[isa2020] 07/11/2018 11:35

Large amount of shares could appear on the market - unfortunately completely unrelated to the performance of the company

[isa2020] 07/11/2018 11:19

Why would 0.5p be tempting? If someone is happy to sell at a loss at current price

[bishopawn] 07/11/2018 11:05

Overhang of shares I think. E.g 1.5 mill sold yesterday after 2 mill buys. 0.5p would be very tempting if it's offered. Without news it's heading in that direction.

[isa2020] 07/11/2018 10:41

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/uk-firm-arlington-secures-200m-investment-for-1gw-of-energy-storage-gas-peaWould they be interested in buying a site or two than PPG can hand something back to shareholders, as special dividend.

[isa2020] 07/11/2018 09:28

Drop, interesting.Best get the vacuum cleaner

[rhug1966] 07/11/2018 09:03

Reckon they are sneaking out the back door.