Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 29/9/2020 20:19

Always possible but probably not before FY results and will depend on outlook for 2021. If we were valued in the same way that IGG or CMCX are then £30 would be on the cards imo. But we have to accept that Mr M doesn't like retail customers or PLUS's approach to internalising risk management as far as possible.

[rhatton] 29/9/2020 19:55

Thanks SJ, great thoughts and modelling as always.
Do you think £20 is possible? :)

[ponyten] 29/9/2020 19:18

Thanks Assagi for starting this thread! And thanks SJ for your thoughts 👍

[sailing john] 29/9/2020 19:09

I have been asked by PM if I had updated my model as I said I would post IG 1Q results on the 17th Sept. Sorry but lost interest in thread recently! - but here it is.

Background
PLUS gave an AGM TS on the 16th saying "Revenue, in particular Customer Income, has remained strong in H2 2020 to date, supported by further growth in the Company's Active Customer base. The Company has also on-boarded a high level of new customers so far in the second half"

Of note from IG Q1 (Jun-Aug)published on the 17th Sept was this "Performance of the Retail client base in UK and Europe was particularly strong, with growth delivered in both revenue per client and number of active clients." and new clients 129% higher than prior year. I was slightly nervous that Cust P&L for IG would be an issue given the start of June was difficult for the industry in that respect but that has clearly been absorbed in the numbers if they had any exposure.

So both very positive prompting me to adopt my higher Rev scenario that I posted really as a straw man on the 3rd Sept

So my Q3 Rev est is now $300m! (was $225m) (+/- cust P&L and I'm confident this won't be large either way) note Q2 was $323m (-76 Cust P&L) and I have increased Q4 to $225m

In summary FY Rev of $1083m eps 460p PE 3.2 at 1500 (was circa 400p with Q3 at $225m and Q4 $175m)

2021 FY Rev of $595m, eps 242p PE 6.2 at 1500 (rev of $595m split 175/150/140/130)

I have updated the S&M part of my model to reflect latest UACs and it is driven by both Rev and new user numbers where I have Q3 90k and Q4 70k (vs Q2 115k) and 2019 ave 25k/quarter so obviously just a best guess!

Would be interested in views from other modelers - is $300m for Q3 too high?

SJ

PS my price targets have moved up beyond 1750 and I'm likely to hold through to FY results 2021 but keeping a close eye on ESMA and ASIC!

[sailing john] 29/9/2020 19:08

Thanks Pru - hadn't spotted new and moderated thread
Will copy over
SJ

[sailing john] 29/9/2020 19:06

Assagal - thanks for setting up a new moderated thread - long overdue!

SJ

[pru dent] 29/9/2020 18:48

Hi SJ, thanks for posting this but could you post it on the new thread as no one comes on this one for obvious reasons.

[sailing john] 29/9/2020 18:34

I have been asked by PM if I had updated my model as I said I would post IG 1Q results on the 17th Sept. Sorry but lost interest in thread recently! - but here it is.

Rest of post deleted and copied to new moderated thread here

If anyone wants to comment

SJ

[conradj1] 29/9/2020 16:45

all hat typing for me

ahhhhhhh

rent free filth


#lol

[conradj1] 29/9/2020 15:56

rent free pig filth

x

[conradj1] 29/9/2020 15:09

please gasp and expire

[elcapitalthegreat] 29/9/2020 15:06

your existence is not required loser

[elcapitalthegreat] 29/9/2020 13:20

another down day, another post from my jealous troll

[conradj1] 29/9/2020 13:08

all day every day u spout about me

oh man it makes my day

in your vacuous little bald head 24/7

rent free eh filth

[assagai] 29/9/2020 11:28

Sounds pretty good to me!

[conradj1] 29/9/2020 11:21

all day every day u spout about me

oh man it makes my day

in your vacuous little bald head 24/7

rent free eh filth

[ceri evans] 29/9/2020 11:18

I started in April, 2019 but managed to enter at the wrong moment.

Things have looked up since then and I got much busier. I now hold 32,857 shares at a book cost of £469,762.83, have made purchases totalling £3,185,789.75 and sales totalling £2,809,509.09 for a trading profit of £93,482.17, with some dividends due in November not included.

[conradj1] 29/9/2020 08:34

all day every day u spout about me

oh man it makes my day

on your vacuous little head 24/7

rent free eh filth