Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[galileo8] 16/5/2020 18:53

Only one person making a mug of himself here. Why don't you disclose what you think you know to assist the share price down so you can make a profit. You are a mug of the highest calibre. Beyond the wit of man. All your cryptic messages are nonsense, as I'm sure your bank account is

[traderkrk] 16/5/2020 16:13

Sounds good. I heavily collected xtb shares from peers. Similar trajectory to Plus500 in Q1 (slightly better) and Q2 seems based on extrapolations to be better than crazy Q1 with respect to client acquisition. My estimates on new client side are at least 100% up vs. Q1 so far. So I would expect the same from Plus500. But couldn't hack Plus500 trailing new customer numbers yet.

[simplethesis] 16/5/2020 15:09

djokovic1 - yes, agree, paid search now at a very high level. I'm at your level for Q2 spreads, at least. I agree with your implicit suggestion that just because the company flagged +ve P&L for April, doesn't mean they don't give it back, even though they did say it was "strong gains", i.e. not a small number.

Ceri - I follow you on your analysis of the timing of the trading statement, and your comments on May. I totally agree that what's lovely is that your lower-end expectation has to be that it beats this year by enough that, in comparison with the huge H1 dividend, you do very well, supported by a modestly rising 2021 consensus, while for every month that high newsflow and volatility continues, you get free upside.

Again, however, I'd say, the big beat and distribution that I expect for this year is one thing, but it's the NPV of the recruited cohort that matters.

[fxprotrader] 16/5/2020 15:04

Guess all you like. It will soon be zero. Only mug punters don't know why

[ceri evans] 16/5/2020 13:20

I guesstimated March to be $150M and the trading update implied April at $152M. Should May be at the same level, then Plus is already ahead of 1Q in 2Q, with any profit in June on top of that.

Prudent analysis has profitability tailing off for various reasons (lower market volatility / client loss, etc.), BUT that's not a given. It is not impossible that the current scenario endures until the end of the year, and even beyond, until the post-Covid-19 world stabilizes.

So, my take is that sitting on a good holding in Plus should yield a market-beating return in the lower-end scenarios and affords a dream of a golden few months leading to a share price which is hard to accurately forecast but could, in the ultimate be over £30.

[djokovic1] 16/5/2020 11:54

My expectations are around Q1 though hope to be surprised to the upside. Customer interest levels continue to be very high into May as evidenced by google trends.

I conservatively expect Q2 spreads PNL to be 300 and market pnl to be closer to 0. Of course I think it’s hard to predict these numbers with accuracy but whatever they are, they will increase consensus expectations

[traderkrk] 16/5/2020 10:44

What are your expectations for Q2 results? Beating Q1?

[fxprotrader] 14/5/2020 17:00

falling like grealish now

[rachael777] 14/5/2020 16:19

indeed - aghhh was me changing my mind - with no stamp duty and nominal trading cost just have to acknowlege i got it wrong - with a 23p movement against me on the share price. never mind, back in again as i believe it is undervalued at these levels

[galileo8] 14/5/2020 16:06

Going up like a rocket now!!!?

[rose_by_another_name] 14/5/2020 15:55

That seems to have done the trick, Rachael!

[rachael777] 14/5/2020 15:00

is this the day plus doesnt act in a contrary manner and everyone decides cash looks lovely (at least for the next few days....) Time for me to bail and get interested around 1200p

[galileo8] 14/5/2020 12:42

Like a feather is a better analogy

[fxprotrader] 14/5/2020 12:18

Falling like a stone now.

[galileo8] 14/5/2020 12:05

However I'm prepared to stick my neck on the line and guess this closes the day exactly where it started

[galileo8] 14/5/2020 12:04

As you are aware vol will help earnings which ultimately helps the share price, intra day moves are anyone's guess

[fxprotrader] 14/5/2020 11:36

vol isnt helping the share price Rachel!

[thegaspingpiggie] 14/5/2020 11:21

you hadn't noticed eh filth that the market as a whole has come down

jeez some people have no idea at all - actually just pig filth fxpoo

[fxprotrader] 14/5/2020 10:53

share price is going down, why cover? more likely to increase

[rachael777] 14/5/2020 10:39

voatility ramping back up nicely - perfect set up for plus to head north from here.