Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[thewheeliedealer] 07/5/2020 20:42

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a Twin Petes Investing Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion covers PLUS. We also talked in depth about the current situation in the Markets and how we reckon things could play out. Anyway, if you use Apple or Audioboom you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcast 22) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

Ideal listening Lockdown listening !!

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[fxprotrader] 07/5/2020 15:59

Even the bulls will agree its run out of steam here if theyre truthful

[rhatton] 07/5/2020 15:48

Yep be nice to end the week above £13

[wm2020] 07/5/2020 15:42

Struggling to get back above 13 this afternoon, hopefully a later flourish before 4.30

[rose_by_another_name] 07/5/2020 14:57

Moving my ISA to another broker, so can't
deal in Plus for awhile. Confident that it
will go higher (holding).

[djokovic1] 07/5/2020 12:42

Agree with your analysis ST, I would add that as insiders hold a large stake now they are further incentivized to pay out the excess cash as a huge div as opposed to buybacks or keeping it on the balance sheet

[racksthedon] 07/5/2020 11:39

duly reported pig filth

not long now mr gasper

lololol

[racksthedon] 07/5/2020 11:36

ahhhh pig filth losing it again

great to see
keep the anger coming filth

duly reported lol

[rose_by_another_name] 07/5/2020 11:32

No point in banning people. They just come back
with a new name and you have to filter again.

[simplethesis] 07/5/2020 11:28

H1 dividend yield could be 18-24%, announced mid August.

People are misunderstanding the likely H1 dividend, which will be much bigger than commonly thought. Net cash at H1 will be approximately $516m (end Q1 number) + $200m from Q2 - $15m of buybacks in Q2 = $700m. What need has this company for $700m in net cash? Even at very high levels of volatility, it only wants to keep $2-300m net cash.

The stated policy is that the company will pay out at least 60% of PAT, with at least half being through a dividend, the rest being a buyback.
Previously when profits have been exceptional the payout has been higher.
The company had $516m net cash at 31.3.20.
It earned another $178m after tax in Q1. I have higher than that in Q2, such that the company makes c. $400m in H1, after tax.
This translates into 383c per share, or 310p per share in earnings in H1.

We know the company will return at least 60% of this to shareholders
I would be surprised not to learn in mid August that the company is returning 80% of this to shareholders
I would be surprised if the company chooses to buy back shares, whether the share price is £13 as it is now or £17 as it may be then, rather than to return the capital to the owners of the business.
The company is rightfully proud, in my opinion, of the huge distributions it has made to shareholders since the listing. This seems likely to be another one of those times.
If the company pays a dividend of 60% of H1 profits, then the *interim* yield at today’s price is 13.3%. If 80% payout, it’s 18%, and if it pays out the whole lot, then it’s 24%.
Contrast that 18% or 24% interim yield with the forecast full year dividend yield from Liberum’s last note of 13% ($2.1 per share), or the Berenberg stated yield of 7.5% (based on $1.2/ share, because he has a 50:50 split between buybacks and dividends)

[eeza] 07/5/2020 11:27

Children at play.

[racksthedon] 07/5/2020 11:27

keep gasping loser

especially as we all know youre short from £8

too funny

[racksthedon] 07/5/2020 10:30

report me for stating the facts eh pig filth

ps up she goes

still short from £8 aren't ya

oh boy

we are loving this

wrong again filth

[racksthedon] 07/5/2020 09:39

likewise pal xx

[sif12] 07/5/2020 09:37

I was doing a little google digging Re the CEO resigning. Came across this slightly old article:



The interesting bit, which answers one of my own questions about how they market...

'What Elimelech has in his favour — and what his rivals covet — is an unrivalled marketing machine with a fearsome reputation. The head office in Haifa is virtually next door to Israel’s Technion institute, whose graduates have spread far and wide in the business world. There are no call centres; some 90% of his “marketing” staff are actually software engineers, targeting customers through Google. Plus500 also poached Google executive Ari Shotland as its chief technology officer this year to keep its lead.'

The point here is that standard marketing in my basic understanding, is somewhat reactive and doesnt necessarily lend itself to continuous improvement- refinement. where as targetting customer in this way is much more learning/ AI based. It means the process should get better and better. IE higher quality customers who spend more and stick longer

EDIT: However the bit of the marketing theyre missing is the PR.. even in this article 18 months ago, the reputation and trust wasnt there.. Its an Israeli company which just has a UK listing.. shouldn't their brokers be doing something? aside from from pretty poor analysis? Isnt their job at least in part about getting the message out to prospective investors? What about appointing new brokers?

Maybe the owners/ founders dont care. I mean as long as they get fat dividends why should they. At some point they maybe looking for a sale, but Id imagine 10-15 PE max

[eeza] 07/5/2020 09:04

rackthedon now racksthedon. Created today 7 May. filtered.