Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[fxprotrader] 25/10/2019 15:35

No luck required. I always get this one right. It will be a zero, but when is the question.

[warik] 25/10/2019 15:21

FX- Good luck to you. Rubric closed another 0.12 on 23rd so now only 6.79% great update and we could be 900p not so good update and 700p let's see where we land.

[fxprotrader] 25/10/2019 14:25

Theer is no comparison to IG or CMCX. That is very naive and only mug punters would think so

[fxprotrader] 25/10/2019 14:25

Theer is no comparison to IG or CMCX. That is very naive and only mug punters would think so

[fxprotrader] 25/10/2019 14:24

it is not runing away, shorts will increase as the buy back stops. I will soon be shorting again.

[warik] 25/10/2019 14:19

Looking at the slide today looks like the 245000 trade was a short. IG is up & CMCX is very stable. Anyone knows whats happening shorts not updated yet. Hope to get a great update but markets look stable not good for us.

[valentine73] 25/10/2019 06:52

Someone has posted on here that the update is due on 29th - next week

[hatfullofsky] 25/10/2019 06:42

I was expecting an update this week, hopefully next week then.

[warik] 24/10/2019 15:48

6.91% shorts open on 22 Oct. 0.12% closed by Rubric. Another 240k shows as buy at 808 mid day I think could be a sell. I did a dummy quote for 100k shares was 868 so must be a sell let's see if shorters list get updated.

[warik] 23/10/2019 18:01

Australia regs not gone through yet so will have to wait maybe next year. I have no idea what shorters know and why would they keep them open but looking at 5 years chart there are lot of times Plus has rallied and then dropped like a stone even this happened before February. Comparing to last year results are very poor also last year was phenomenal cannot be repeated I think so 176m in PL just ridiculous. Also I assume folks will get smarter with time and make money not lose all the time plus they dont hedge like IG but it's been a great run. I dont trust Liberum, Berenberg states 800 fair value based on 107m income in next 2 quarters. Strangely Peel Hunt put 600 reduce when this was 711 & CG states 546 sell haven't change since February. As long as volatility is there we will be fine.

[djokovic1] 23/10/2019 14:35

I high level agree with your points PL,I estimate a normalized quarterly run rate of $90m after impact of Australia regs assuming 0 market PnL of course. Also this assumes there is no growth in active customers i.e churn each quarter = growth in new customers each quarter. Interestingly even with the Australia regs and above revenue runrate assumptions, I still see them making $175m of normalized net income on an annualized basis. Which puts them at a 6x PE or a 5x PE ex cash. So I don't see what the shorts are banking on here.

[warik] 23/10/2019 14:34

Last Oct was 100m. Interesting part now Plus500 may have to disclose spread revenue and P&L bcoz of the fiasco. September was quiet month not much volatility as everything went up apart from Oil which I think people would have made money as that was low. If we get good growth momentum can continue. I hope we dont get 10-20m of p&l loss as that would send share price down. Let's see what happens next Tuesday isn't it?

[planelondon] 23/10/2019 12:25

For sure Q3 will be an excellent result. However, the bumper revenue will likely come about from positive customer P&L driven by a return of volatility and the fall in crypto assets rather than a sustainable and permanent rise in long term spread revenue. It’s easy to get distracted by individual quarters but future spread revenue is likely to remain at its medium term average of c. $95m (based on four quarters post ESMA) as customer P&L is neutral over the longer term. Growth in long term spread revenues are driven predominantly by internal incremental improvements and growth in active customers rather than volatility or one off events which are only temporary. Whilst a bumper Q3 is welcome and is likely to include elevated spread revenue as well as significant positive customer P&L, it doesn’t really change the outlook for medium term quarterly spread revenues of c. $95m. In addition, the likely regulatory changes in Australia, could initially knock as much as 70% off local annual revenues (c. $8-10m a quarter in spread revenue). It’s not too difficult to see the possibility of average quarterly spread revenues of c. $85m in the first half of 2020. I would suggest the shorts are focused on the longer term average of spread revenues (which always play true to form as it is neutral) rather than a single quarters result which is non-linear.

[warik] 23/10/2019 11:07

& the shorters to burn as i am quite surprised they haven't closed their positions if this is running away.

[warik] 23/10/2019 11:06

Fantastic then does anyone think this will run to £10 or £12 just like its been running for past 2 months.

[markbelluk] 23/10/2019 08:59

Great posts all! Helpful thank you

[djokovic1] 23/10/2019 08:44

I think Q3 is going to be good. If you look at Q2 they did 93mio in spreads + funding charges and 1mio in market PnL. In Q2 S&P was up 4% and average VIX level was 15. Q3 is likely better than Q2 with S&P flat and average VIX level at 16. Also higher currency and commodity volatility in Q3 relative to Q2. Note: Flat and down equity markets are generally better for Plus as traders are long biased in equities. Part of the reason why Q1 2019 was so weak and market PnL was -28m. The other positive is higher active user numbers and lower churn rate trend that we saw in Q2. I am not that worried about oil price move as it is just one market (small proportion of their revenues) and also if you look at client positioning (IG and Plus) it is currently 70% long so Plus could also have benefiting from the down move instead of it being a negative. (Caveat: Investor positioning is as of right now,I don't know what it was at the start of the quarter) My rough estimate is revenues of $110-$120m for this quarter which would be above current market expectations of $106m per quarter. Also still trades at 6x normalized earnings and 5x cash adjusted earnings.

[metis20] 23/10/2019 08:43

A sell order for about 35k shares has been showing on level 2 this morning - it has disappeared now. It was moved between about 825p and down to 802p and then back up again. Muddy Water/ BUR shenanigans come to mind. Anyhow it has disappeared now!

[metis20] 23/10/2019 08:38

and there was just one share repurchase on December 18 2017, in response to the drop in share price caused by the ESMA update RNS on that day - the share price had bounced back up above 800p by the next day.. "Plus500, a leading online service provider for retail customers to trade CFDs internationally, announces that, in accordance with the terms of its Share Buyback Programme announced on 7 August 2017, the Company acquired 38,000 ordinary shares of ILS 0.01 each in the capital of the Company ("Shares") on 18 December 2017 at a price of 789.02 pence per Share."

[sailing john] 23/10/2019 08:29

Mark - Copied below my post from another BB dated Oct 31st 2017 They appeared to stop and restart as price moved above/below the 810-820 price - never got an accurate number as too volatile and they didn't publish individual trades just the daily average. (Likely to be other factors such as market volume and I did wonder in 2017 if MACD or other indicators might be used to apply the brakes if necessary as it is pretty much an automated system and certainly out of the hands of PLUS once they have set parameters) From Oct 2017 "Looking at the only bubacks post Aug 1H17 results 7th 741p, 8th 798p 9th/10th none (price above 820) 11th 807p and no further buybacks Suggests that perhaps a price limit set around 810-820p"

[markbelluk] 23/10/2019 08:15

Appreciate the insight John. Do you know in 2017 when the buybacks hit 810 did they stop completely or restart/stop as the price dipped under/return above 810? TIA

[sailing john] 23/10/2019 07:46

Buy backs - Is there a price cap set at 810p - Lower vol yesterday and highest price 810p Interestingly (or not) the buyback cap appeared to be set at about 810 in 2017 but very few actual buybacks as price above 810 for most of the buyback period! And looking back through some old posts I found this comparative chart that starts from the FCA tightening announcement date 6th Dec 2016 Shows the volatility of PLUS over past 3 years vs IGG and CMCX which haven't been as volatile but haven't seen the same rise. (It's all about avoiding the downside hence my cautious approach)

[sailing john] 23/10/2019 07:32

Re Q3 TS discussion - I'm currently out as nervous about Q3 oil price shock. PLUS are of course uniquely exposed to big shocks as they offer negative balance protection to Pro and Retail Traders - just part of the risk they/shareholders take. Oil is of course one of the most traded instruments on PLUS and it is possible to open positions as high as $5m currently (might have been $4m when oil moved) on an individual basis if you have the margin to do it. Having said that if they escaped significant losses from negative balance protection on the oil price move it could be a bumper quarter given volatility in commodity and currency markets. My trading strategy is to avoid any downside risk and having exited 4 weeks back I've missed about 50p (and rising!) of potential gains but I have to accept that. This strategy has served me well in the past. "sailing john - 23 Sep 2019 - 15:01:33 - 21099 of 21240 PLUS500 Decided to exit until Q3 TS - nervous about exposure to oil price shock ie customer P&L. If none then Q3 should be positive given IGs recent TS but I don't do risk and easy to jump in and out - taken nearly 25% in 6 weeks since interims. Hopefully back in post Q3" GL - SJ