Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[elcapital2018] 20/1/2019 12:22

gonna be a bad week for you mug punters

[poolefox] 20/1/2019 12:03

IG and CMC report next week if there results are good Plus will rocket

[dumbbunny] 19/1/2019 21:06

Tomleafs, so far we have Q4 estimates from the following:

$ 145m Liberum
$ 152m Berenberg
$ 156.8m Autonomous

Peel Hunt and Canaccord don't appear to have updated their estimates since the 27 December 2018 positive trading update. Prior to the update, they had $101m and $84m (implied, based on H2 estimate) respectively.

An observation:

- Q4/17 $132.3m.
- Q4/18 estimates c. $152m.
- That’s >15% year-on-year, post-ESMA growth.

Q4/17 was a record quarter in its own right and was in the heat of crypto mania.

If this is the case, on 12/02 there will be very strong evidence that Plus500 remains, post-ESMA, a growth business.

[tomleafs] 19/1/2019 18:01

Hi metis, Plus updates the market when expected profits (published by house broker Liberum) are hit. This must have happened before Christmas and therefore Liberum are revising up their revenue estimate from $116m to $145. This incremental revenue should drop straight through to profit which they now estimate at $100m EBITDA for Q4. Regarding Q3 from the update you can see $100m revenue @ 50% EBITDA margin = $50m. According to IR the smaller amount of cash was due to an advanced tax payment (paid monthly). So to summarise, $50m EBITDA for Q3 (already happened) and $100m EBITDA for Q4 (estimate based on trading updates triggered by profit milestones). Based on the above I'm pencilling in about $2 to be returned either by special dividends or buybacks come Feb 12th. ATB

[base7] 19/1/2019 17:36

Always best for a CEO to under promise & over deliver,which is what our guy has done since his appointment.He announced that Q4 will exceed expectations & we have to assume that Q1 will have started well due to continued market volatility.I accept that most Hedgies are shrewd folk,discuss & collaborate with each other (under the radar of The Regulator)& I can see that detractors assume that we aren't the most shirted stock on The Market for no reason & there must be a fair number of shorters under 0.50% (i.e. Not disclosed) so the tried figure will be 15-20%.As I remain long I will have to assume that I know better than them !So far Plus has been an amazing investment fir those of us buying after the IPO & I paid 130p,sold enough to cover my cost & have received divis of around 450p.I wish all my investments were this poor !!

[metis20] 19/1/2019 14:40

What predictions for Q4 net profit? Have been told that the house brokers are saying around $150m for revenue. If that report is accurate, will that be merely the house brokers' guess or will it be based on numbers from the company? Unlikely to be the latter as that would be market sensitive info?

$150m revenue for Q4 does not sound very impressive, especially with the very high Q3 AUA cost in mind. With luck, due to high volatility during Q4, the Q4 AUA cost will be appreciably less than the Q3 cost.

Based on cash balance figures in the Q3 trading update, the Q3 net profit was only about US$23m?



also see post #15464

[fenners66] 19/1/2019 12:14

gettingrichslow
19 Jan '19 - 09:58 - 17122 of 17126

ElCap, I think you've made that point over 100 times now, change the record for God's sake!

Look at his posting history you''ll see its obsessed with posting that over a number of boards - that kind of behaviour suggests it needs help.

Now if everyone would ignore the trolling maybe we can just move on....

[elcapital2018] 19/1/2019 11:56

Big fall at the end yesterday. Sign of things to come. That's why you don't want me to post when I tell you I told you so and you lot have to apologise

[noujay] 19/1/2019 11:15

You never say anything meaningful to do with shares either though..touch hypocritical!

[gettingrichslow] 19/1/2019 09:58

ElCap, I think you've made that point over 100 times now, change the record for God's sake!

[poolefox] 18/1/2019 23:49

I believe Sailor John highlighted someone called Lynden? was shorting Plus at £4 here it is at £15 and Odey have had their capital back in dividends and still hold over 10% in their Allegra fund and Absolute Return Fund.I believe that same person is still highlighting the biggy that he knows more than Odey personally the board would be better rid of this given the price is already nearly 4 times the price plus dividends.I hope he doesn’t reply because we have no interest in suchlike ramblings

[gettingrichslow] 18/1/2019 23:06

The chartists were all calling £10 only a few weeks ago...

[chucko1] 18/1/2019 18:13

Doomonger, the buyback has accounted for about £3mm of stock over about 6 weeks. Odey and the shorts have sold roughly £60mm over the same period. This does not exactly support your brief analysis.

If I recall, you were a fan of Fibonacci. He has not been too kind to you the last few weeks, has he? Which guru or mathematical model has led you to the path of 1300p next week?

[elcapital2019] 18/1/2019 16:59

It clearly has no impact on the share price with the volumes they are buying

[tomleafs] 18/1/2019 16:50

Doom, do you really think Plus buying back 5-10k shares makes a difference on a day when when trading volume was comfortably over a million?

[sogoesit] 18/1/2019 16:44

Every dog has its day.
Good weekend doomsters, bulls, bears, cats, longs, shorts, fools and wise guys!
Mut Punter

[doomongor] 18/1/2019 16:40

Back down to 1300 next week IMO, the shorts are weighing HEAVILY! The only thing keeping the stock buoyant is the buyback and that will end soon!

[elcapital2019] 18/1/2019 16:27

Been a ruff week for the shorts