Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[elcapital2018] 05/1/2019 16:51

IG isnt in trouble. Doesnt matter what that clown said

[elcapital2019] 05/1/2019 12:56

Troubling.

I had always assumed that IG was the Rolls-Royce of the sector.

Perhaps it has always been a Skoda after all.

[dumbbunny] 05/1/2019 12:39

rHatton,

I have a range of $3.30-3.40 depending on the final corporation tax calculation for the period.

The lowest estimate I have seen is $2.73 by Autonomous in their note of 22 August and 16 October. After Q4's performance, this now looks extremely pessimistic (and absolutely dead wrong).

What surprises me, is that so far, none of the analysts appear to have come to the obvious conclusion that Plus500's 2018 performance will beat IG Group's last full year performance by some margin.

IG Group's revenue and EBIT for their last full financial year (May 2018) was £569m ($723m) and £281m ($357m) respectively.

Working on the Liberum Q4 estimates of 27 December, that have a historical record of coming in slightly below actual, of revenue and EBIT of $145m and $100m, Plus500 year-end revenues and EBIT would be $711m and $499m respectively.

Therefore, Plus500 would have outperformed IG Group on the key financial performance indicator of EBIT by +37% or +$142m. Although, IG Group's market cap currently stands at +40% above Plus500's. This really doesn't make sense.

Further, IG Group is having difficulty acquiring new customers. The annual rate of decline has been accelerating since 2017. IG Group recruited 56,000 in 2017, 39,000 in 2018 and only 14,600 in the first half of 2018/19. The opposite pattern is being seen at Plus500. New customers are the lifeblood of most businesses but this is, in particular, true for CFD operators.

IG Group looks like a business in trouble, with their customer base rapidly becoming a closed book of business in runoff. This is likely to become very apparent when IG publish their HY results on 23 January, and the exorbitant AUAC of those 14,600 new customers is revealed to the market.

I've so far read nothing from the professionals that the No.1 and No. 2 positions of the leading operators in the CFD sector have actually, already changed place on virtually any metric of financial or operational performance you choose to measure.

Although, one writer on the financial blog Cohortz Capital points out some troubling strategic direction at IG Group, in their mission to find a source of new customers to replace those they can no longer obtain in their core, high-value markets.

www.cohortzcapital.finance.blog/2019/01/05/ig-group-5/

* exchange rate GBPUSD 1.27

[gettingrichslow] 05/1/2019 12:16

Just received the monster Israeli tax refund from the last dividend into my bank account. Quite an effort but worth it given the size of my investment here. Interesting that the guys at ESOP seem to have been working on Xmas Day!!?

[elcapital2018] 05/1/2019 10:21

Rackers also posts as rees4 so he has someone to argue with that will listen!

[rackerrs1] 05/1/2019 10:15

We aren't concerned about you u mug punter. In fact the higher this goes, the happier we are on two counts.Hope this helps mug

[gettingrichslow] 05/1/2019 10:02

The thing is he never gives any clue as to how much he is in for. Could well be peanuts. Which underlines how ridiculous it is that he spends a large part of every day on here.

[rackerrs1] 04/1/2019 19:27

It's 'laughs last' you uneducated moron.

[elcapital2018] 04/1/2019 19:23

he who laughs last...................

[noujay] 04/1/2019 17:22

What a margin call or a friend!!

[rhatton] 04/1/2019 16:38

Whats people’s EPS thoughts for this coming FY report? $3.30 seems pencilled in terms of analysts expectations...

[rackerrs1] 04/1/2019 13:16

IYS JUST A MATTER OF TIME. NOT LONG NOWTill you're six feet under?Great. Go for it.

[podgyted] 04/1/2019 12:53

A large part of me wishes the "owners"/founders would sell out - they don't have much left and the weight some people put on their decisions is ludicrous given they no longer have any involvement - and are probably thinking about their next project rather than the money.

It would get rid of one more barrier to PLUS being recognized for what it is - a hugely successful company knocking the spots off IGG.

[fenners66] 04/1/2019 12:09

LOL - will that be based offshore ? ....
... Fantasy Island ?

[s_a_b] 04/1/2019 11:35

With retrospective long and short positions depending on price movements? Where can I sign up?

[elcapital2019] 04/1/2019 11:30

Trained as a highly expert former stockbroker my performance has now been so good I am considering opening up a fund for external capital. Hindsight Capital.

[davebdavid] 04/1/2019 11:14

Does anyone expect the owners to sell their remaining shares around this point?

[brucie5] 04/1/2019 11:07

Once over 1500 this will surely close the gap. 10% dividend and growing, surely makes it extremely attractive.

[dj trading] 04/1/2019 10:39

El Cap from 23rd Oct "Im shorting again this morning. Legging in"
"1252 averag"
"short increased 1268. it will be fine, im always right"

Looking at the chart 1250 looks to have been the bottom in the past 6 months!

Nice entry point El Cap - "Mr I'm never wrong"!!!!

Plenty of opportunities to short from higher missed over the past 3 months!!!

Good job they are imaginary trades!

You needed to close your short on the 27th Dec Ahead TS at 1300 and open a long - my guess is 1500+ on the 12th Feb

[fenners66] 04/1/2019 10:37

Its time for him to up his fantasy 1p a point short.....

I would guess he reports he added at 1471 say ..... and this will end one day down .... but not "down" just down on where it was intraday at some point.....

[gettingrichslow] 04/1/2019 10:29

The CAPS ARE ON! He's rattled by the steady rises!!