Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[davebdavid] 22/10/2018 15:16

Thanks Financethoughts.
I have decided at this stage to see what happens tomorrow. I bought in a while ago and sold during the drop, I am so tempted to buy back in today but at this late stage I will be up early to see whats happening in the morning.

[financethoughts] 22/10/2018 14:45

I would encourage all holders to get used to looking at accounts, it’s not very hard. The benefit of conducting a Discounted CashFlow valuation works two ways - not only does it give you a discounted present day intrinsic value, but can also tell you how low (in this case) a company would have to perform to justify the current price. Ignore the noise, rely on facts. Nobody can say what tomorrow will bring & we have a higher chance of previous growth being impacted as new measures bite.. but the accounts to date don’t lie. I’m very comfortable in my holding until the story changes, and there is a significant margin of safety for long term holders as I see it.

[metis20] 22/10/2018 14:24

"Overall, our expectations are that Plus500's outstanding momentum will deliver strong year-on-year growth in 2018, in line with the market expectations."

[elcapital2018] 22/10/2018 14:18

Its gone ex growth, it isnt liked by the City, it isnt trusted.

[financethoughts] 22/10/2018 14:16

I sympathise davebdavid - the accounts show that PLUS is an incredibly profitable company with high operating margins, high ROCE, and a very low price to (historic)FCF. The impact of new governance measures have yet to be felt, but already allow us to buy at a near 40% discount to the highs of the summer. But much of PLUS's valuation is based on its ability to continue to generate free cash flow from here. If you figure that the PLUS intrinsic value is based on cash hoard (sizeable) + assets (negligible) - debt (zero), + continued free cash flows (significant to date), then you've got a lot of margin for safety here.

[elcapital2018] 22/10/2018 14:13

Has everyone else done their projections??? Thought not!

[elcapital2018] 22/10/2018 14:09

Results will be good, as i said before. Im not an analyst and dont pretend to be

The statement will be the worry for the bulls

[davebdavid] 22/10/2018 13:21

I've not bought back in yet, really struggling to decide what to do.

[andrewclarke99] 22/10/2018 12:09

Therefor if results tomorrow are very positive for Q3 and very encouraging going forward into Q4 and buying interest picks up. There may well be a lot of shirts closing and pushing the price on further

[thefartingcommie] 22/10/2018 11:13

Plus500 has been targeted by short-sellers as analysts warn of the huge impact a clampdown on contracts for difference (CFD) ­trading will have.

Hedge funds have made a £140m wager that the FTSE 250 firm’s shares will plunge further after the introduction of new regulations in August.

Since making the step up to London’s Main Market in June, the proportion of Plus500’s shares in the hands of short-sellers has tripled to more than 9pc, making it the 10th most-shorted stock.

Its share price has fallen 38pc since August amid uncertainty over the impact of rules that aim to protect inexperienced investors from risky CFDs.

Plus500 admitted in August that 30pc of its revenue could be affected in the short term by the restrictions on CFDs, which allow investors to bet on price movements without owning the underlying asset.

Figures indicate that retail investors lose money on trading CFDs about 80pc of the time.

[noujay] 22/10/2018 10:56

Looking forward to the update tomorrow if just for some real clarity on this. The suggested numbers by financethoughts seem reasonable and I would be surprised if PLUS does not achieve them.May get some idea later on based on price movements

[financethoughts] 21/10/2018 14:14

Do you have any projections, any calculations ElCapital2018? What would constitute a strong performance for PLUS in your view ( whether long or short)?

[elcapital2018] 21/10/2018 13:43

It will be fun thats for sure

[financethoughts] 21/10/2018 12:28

eentweedrie, good luck with the top up, I sincerely hope all us long holders are in for good news on Tuesday AM. A reminder that last 6 Quarter Rev figures (oldest first) have been $77m, $111m, $116m, $132m, $297m (exceptional Q1 18), and $168m. You can see that, discounting exceptional Q1 18, each quarter has seen an upward trend. A reminder that the consensus estimates are expecting total 2018 Rev of $634m, and that leaves $169m in the remaining 2 quarters of 2018 combined, having already banked $465m in H1. Shared equally between Q3 and Q4, that's $84.5m. As already posted, I'm hoping to see at least $101m, but ideally more. Around 40-50% of Revenue has historically been converted into FCF. Looking forward to Tuesday.

[elcapital2018] 21/10/2018 09:13

yes, i am well aware of cable car. I know what they know

[noujay] 20/10/2018 18:42

Cable car are the outfit that predicted Plus was on the verge of ceasing trading as a going concern..in 2015

[chucko1] 20/10/2018 14:13

Perhaps they (all the new shorters) will fare better than Cable Car Capital who shorted with a target of 50p! That was back in June 2015, repeated when the share price was 360p in November 2015. The fellow who did the analysis was a youthful 27 years of age when he published it. What PLUS do can often be misconstrued, and then they don’t help themselves by not making much attempt to refute various allegations. Some of what they do might just be a touch rough, but risk management is a necessarily tough game. As previously stated, Plus are pretty clear in their company statements how they make their money, and being “tricky” need not be part of it when one considers the margin they earn on the overnight balances/funding.

So, ElCap, a direct question to you. Were you one of the people who believe they got conned by PLUS a while back and joined one of the class action suits initiated in the Netherlands and, as I understand it, promoted by Cable Car Capital? Or do you know people who were? This might enable us to understand the oft repeated comments that Plus are “a nasty company” (which might be the case, but seemingly not actionable).

FWIW, I do a bit of trading on the Plus platform (joined a few weeks back to see what the fuss was all about), and it seems that the quoted prices are on market at all times with their own mid market being within the bid and offer of the wholesale markets. I use virtually no leverage so I am not likely to suffer the issues that those who used a suicidal 130x experienced. But I have no pity for such folk - for them, it’s either Plus or the £50 slots, so it might as well have been Plus (rightly not any longer, and we will begin to understand the effects of this on Tuesday morning).

[elcapital2018] 20/10/2018 12:45

short over 9% now

[eentweedrie] 19/10/2018 17:38

well added 22k worth today at an avg of 12.60 in anticipation of the TU on Tuesday. can't be much more downturn from here; the results should be above expectations imv.