Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[s_a_b] 16/10/2018 14:40

For what it's worth I think if there was some major bad news to come then management would have released it asap rather than wait for next week's trading update. The share price is about 1/3 off the high point this summer and there is short interest so I doubt their NOMAD would let them sit on any bad news until then.

[martin1975] 16/10/2018 12:52

there are never any revenue assessments, nor differentiators between PLUS/IG/CMC and you can find much more negative articles about PLUS than about IG/CMC. And PLUS500 short interests are much higher than CMC and IG. All together, PLUS500 with better P/E, growth , without profit warning have much more negative articles ( FT, ....) and short sellers than IG and CMC. If there is not anything specific for PLUS500 ( what does not seem to be) , what is the reason for short selling PLUS500 ? and not short selling IG and CMC. Manipulate the price ? utilise the actual mood on the market ? History taught us - if you wanna buy cheap, the best way is to defame a share, drag down the price and buy. Or maybe there is something else we all do not know.... but I do not think so, otherwise it should have been disclosed

[noujay] 16/10/2018 12:13

There are never any revenue assessments in these articles, nor differentiators between PLUS/IG/CMC, or commentary of diversity of geographical revenues.Next week should be very interesting but I expect PLUS to be in good shape

[nurdin] 16/10/2018 12:13

cheers martin1975

[fenners66] 16/10/2018 12:06

hatfullofsky
16 Oct '18 - 11:57 - 15335 of 15337

"If we simply break even in H2 we're still only on a x 5.5 multiple"

Have you thought at all about what you just said there ?

If we break even H2 - then that would mean the best guide for next year is 2 x Break even (first half and second)

Then your multiple on zero profit is infinite !!

Think before you type !

[martin1975] 16/10/2018 12:01

cityam.com/265659/has-clampdown-spreadbetting-platforms-really-protected

[martin1975] 16/10/2018 11:58

And maybe is worth to summarise who sold und bought Plus500 during the last 2 months: Sold: Playtech which needed that money for debt reduction and founders, who sold many times for a significantly lower price also. Bought: Blackrock, Axxion, Oddey, ..... and none of actual HF sold or decrease their positions. And of course, we have substantial increase of short sellers. Maybe they know something that we do not, but I do not think so. I think short sellers just want to utilise from the actual price momentum, uncertainty on the market and these short sellers caused the actual price. But they will need to close their positions which are very costly to hold and pay the dividends in a long term. And last thing - I can not imagine that revenue drop which is the company not obliged to disclose ASAP which can justify the current price... We will see...

[hatfullofsky] 16/10/2018 11:57

Biggest faller by far in my Gambling Screen, marking down before the update next week ?

Absolutely crazy valuation now. If we simply break even in H2 we're still only on a x 5.5 multiple

MCAP £1414m / HY PBT $346M / £256M

[nurdin] 16/10/2018 11:55

Cant find that article on Cityam...any chance of a link?

[martin1975] 16/10/2018 11:31

I think it is necessary to look closer at revenues outside UK and EEA. Australia and other revenues in H1 2018 were 133 million, which is almost UK and EEA (exc. UK) revenues in 1H 2017 ( 137 million). All that ESMA regulations led to company geographical diversification which is appreciated and probably will lead to industry consolidation. And all this short term moves are sometimes really funny to watch. For example today, the next article against PLUS500 from cityam, which is always about the same ( clampdown on CFD industry,CFD platforms under pressure blablabla) without any real P/E, Revenues or other assessment. And the outcome - really low trading volumes and almost 7% decrease.

[andrewclarke99] 16/10/2018 09:48

Very nicely put bahiflyer

[davebdavid] 16/10/2018 09:27

Off we go again today. Day traders must be having a field day, the ups and downs have followed a pattern for the last month!

[alan00] 16/10/2018 09:09

Thanks for sharing FT. Just on the cash point, the interim dividend has gone XD now so would take a further USD 157m off for use in EV calculations (not paid out but not in SP). I think almost ignoring the exceptional H1 is a sensible approach, although having gained so many new customers could expect more to be around in H2 than if they hadn't done so well. I expect they will hit or exceed the Liberum forecast for this year, but given how exceptional H1 was I suspect the market (and me) is more interested in run rate post ESMA implementation.

[jplus] 16/10/2018 08:40

He's not talking bout q3 results. He's talking about potential for an upgrade RNS

[bgw1970] 16/10/2018 08:35

23.10.18. You would know this if you had read the company's website.

[ultimate1] 16/10/2018 08:17

Anyone got any thoughts on when “the great r n s” is coming? Any chance of an upgrade on the 70 mill predicted second half profits?

[gettingrichslow] 15/10/2018 20:19

Noujay, fenners, I wasn't expecting Elcapital to answer of course, was merely exposing the vacuum that exists as soon as someone asks for some substantive comment!

[metis20] 15/10/2018 20:11

Many thanks financethoughts for post 15317

It will be very interesting to see on Tuesday 23rd how close to your $101m the Q3 revenue is.

"Therefore, I'm conservatively expecting to see 3m Rev of around $101m, making 9m to date Rev of around $566."

For the record, the last six quarterly revs were (US$ to nearest whole number)

77, 111, 116, 132, 297, 168

[fenners66] 15/10/2018 19:59

That would take some thinking about .... and therein probably lies our answer as to why not..

[gettingrichslow] 15/10/2018 16:38

Elcapital - fair point, so how about you give us your equivalent numbers and then we can judge for ourselves which look more credible?

[elcapital2018] 15/10/2018 16:10

...and if he is wrong? You are making assumptions again

[gettingrichslow] 15/10/2018 16:00

Compare and contrast that last post with the analysis we see from shorters on here eg "this will hit £10 soon I think" type comments!