Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[cfro] 29/8/2017 10:36

Thought i would add a few more this morning and take advantage to the minor dip.

[sailing john] 29/8/2017 10:35

Yes f66 - in addition to the low valuation PE 7 / high yield and positive outlook from crypto first mover advantage etc. you get a great hedge against both GPB falls and any market shocks or reversal of the current uptrends.

[fenners66] 29/8/2017 09:40

Euro rising vs £ - increases profit and dividends in £

[nurdin] 28/8/2017 14:50

yes agreed pl..that looks the most likely next stage in the development cycle..

[planelondon] 28/8/2017 13:41

Nurdin,

Next stop in product development cycle: crypto denominated trading accounts with deposits and withdrawals in crypto?

There might be some security and regulatory issues to solve first but this is very possible and why not let crypto holders spend them at Plus500?

[planelondon] 28/8/2017 10:28

My thinking is that the best outcome for shareholders would be: a continuous rise in the value of crypto currencies with high inter day volatility.

Continuous new highs will bring repeated periods of high crypto news flow in financial and non-financial media. High news flow brings increases in new customer numbers and at a lower cost.

High inter day volatility will maintain profitability despite customers being predominately long on a continuously rising asset.

[nurdin] 28/8/2017 09:48

True, but the flow through the conduit could dry up,not that I am expecting that to happen anytime soon.The industry will always come up with new products to add value to current currencies or introduce new currencies with new features.

[shaker44] 28/8/2017 04:17

And if Plus is just a conduit, who cares.

[cfro] 27/8/2017 17:43

Re the crypto-currency market,

A lot of commentators/investors are saying this is a bubble. From my point of view i tend to agree. However, 'manias' have a tendency and a habit of going much further and higher than many can believe.

To put things into a little context: all the Gold in the world is currently worth about $8.2 Trillion. The US bond market is worth $31 Trillion.

.....All the crypto-currencies currently in existance is worth about £50 Billion. That is 'Billion' and not 'Trillion'!!

Although no-one can know what might happen the time to really start worrying is when the crypto's are valued into the Trillions. In that respect there could be some way to go before any sort of 'top' is in.

[stuffee] 25/8/2017 21:37

SJ, Nurdin, pl et al

I agree with your views on brokers' forecasts and I certainly feel it reasonably conservative to assume 2017 eps of 158c or 123p (just double first half). The board has committed to utilise at least 60% of earnings as cash dividends and share buy backs. A share price of £10 would be supported by PE of 8 and yield of maybe over 7%, which I suggest would be far too modest a rating for such quality of earnings.

Plus already complies with most of commentators' forecasts of potential new rules from the Regulators when they report next year.

I heard an encouraging comment from Liberum yesterday:

Moreover, having met many management teams in our sector and witnessed a few cycles I have rarely met a team who works so hard and appear just smarter than the rest in their industry. This hard work and attention to detail in the shifting sands of their industry has paid dividends over the past 12 months and I have great confidence in them continuing to provide shareholders with excess returns.

I know El Cap will respond that Liberum are the Shop, but the days of the 1980s, when the corporate broker would be totally biased are surely over.

I have also previously pointed out that Liberum have to decide the price at which shares have to be bought in. They have announced a programme of buying in $37m of shares between 2 June 2017 and 1 Feb 2018. They only appear to have bought in $7m in last 3 months so have to be mighty aggressive in the next 5 months to meet their target. Playtech could obviously oblige by placing its 10% to meet buy back target but methinks Playtech also agree this stock should be much higher.

[planelondon] 25/8/2017 11:47

If PLUS really did add USD 32m+ of net profit in June, which the 02/06/17 RNS and interims indicate it did. June would represent 35.88% of H1 the net profits of USD 90.7m. On a simple basis, if you carry this 35.88% of net profits figure across to H1 revenue of USD 188.5m, it would imply June’s revenue was circa USD 67m. If you then carry this monthly elevated run-rate across to Q3, you get some pretty scary numbers. Even if it only carries across at 75% of June revenues, Q3 could be enormous.

From the data that is readily available (google trends, semrush analytics, the daily rate and number of viewings on PLUS’s crypto adverts) and that crypto mania and volatility have continued, there is every reason to be confident June’s activity has carried across to Q3. Perhaps even increased, as PLUS builds an installed customer base of crypto currency traders.

What is more surprising is that IGG, CMCX and other CFD providers are hardly in this space. IGG don’t offer weekend bitcoin/ether trading and CMCX don’t even offer cryptos at all. Where CFD providers do offer cryptos, there is a normally limited choice, restrictions on position size, low leverage and high spreads in comparison to PLUS's offering.

[sailing john] 25/8/2017 10:40

I have 166c in my model currently - and I'm consistently low!

[nurdin] 25/8/2017 10:36

I still think brokers estimate of 123c for the full year is way out of sinc with what they achieved in H1..we shall see

[sailing john] 25/8/2017 10:30

Slowly ticking up each day and nicely through 900. Always takes Mr M a while to catch up with events and he hasn't got there yet!

I don't think the Market has yet factored in the Crypto effect that we have been discussing. A Q3 similar to Q2 might start a move through 1000 and the FY with commentary might finally wake Market up to the rather silly PE of 7 and Yield of 10%+ including buybacks.

Enjoying the ride on my largest holding!

[planelondon] 25/8/2017 10:16

Another reason to like CFD crypto currencies is their relatively low leverage (1:5 up to 1:30 for bitcoin) compare to traditional currency pairs (USDEUR 1:300). With the exception of bitcoin, these leverage levels are below the proposed cap (1:25) for inexperienced customers the FCA set out in their CP16/40 report. A small reduction in bitcoin's leverage level to 1:25 and PLUS’s crypto currency offering would, if the proposed caps are taken up by ESMA/FCA, already be compliant with any new rule in 2018.

[sailing john] 23/8/2017 11:28

Some great research and posts recently re Cryptos - I think we are all learning there!
And we all have the same view of Boom/Bust - good for the facilitators such as PLUS

Still no buybacks - just means more upward price pressure when they eventually start!

And Euro flying vs GBP on it's knees worth another few % on the SP

GL - SJ

[cfro] 23/8/2017 09:01

Exactly, fortunes will be made and fortunes lost in the cryptocurrency market but PLUS will win every way.

[interceptor2] 22/8/2017 08:57

Appreciate the informative posts here recently.

Over last weekend I thought I had better research and try and understand Crypto Currency, needed to fill in my near non existent knowledge. Still have much to learn but have found out much of the history and drive to cashless society etc which I wont go into here.

As I searched google for info, what was obvious was that PLUS500 was at or near the top of most of my searches, so from an investment view I concluded that my PLUS investment is the best way to take advantage of this situation rather than invest into Crypto's via ICO's or other ways.

Just like the gold rush in California, the real money was made by the traders selling the picks and shovels.

[planelondon] 21/8/2017 14:32

Sailing John, you may like to take a look at these PLUS500 ads. Looks like they were published after the end of Q2. All appear to be published 01/08/2017.

English:

Australian:

Italian:

German:

Also available in Spanish, Dutch, and French. Perhaps other languages too.

Another version here:

[sailing john] 21/8/2017 11:58

Thanks PL - useful analysis - buybacks appear on hold perhaps because they have a MACD limit or similar rule to prevent them driving the price when it is already moving quickly?

Added a few more this morning at 884 having reviewed the Crypto first mover advantage with 7 Cryptos on offer 7 days/week vs IG just 2 for only 5 days/week. This appears to be a major opportunity and recent profit driver.

Current Sterling weakness especially against Euro will boost GBP earnings (80% non GBP earnings)

Markets generally under pressure - VIX moving up all good for PLUS

[planelondon] 21/8/2017 11:39

Some data and projections on the share buy-back programme:

Number of shares purchased under buy-back to date: 942,146 (RNS 14/08/2017).

Average price paid per share: 6.15p.

Cost of shares purchased to date: GBP 5.796m (USD 7.535m).

Remaining cash allocation for buy-back: GBP 22.818m (USD 29.664m).

Number of shares that would have to be purchased at current price to complete buy-back: 2,593,026.

Number of trading days outstanding to complete buy-back: 117 days.

Daily average number of shares that would have to be purchased at current price to complete buy-back: 22,163.

Percentage of company shares buy-back would purchase on completion at current price: 3.077%.

* based on exchange rate GBPUSD 1.3 and share price 8.80p. Figures approximate. DYOR.

[nurdin] 21/8/2017 09:03

I think brokers have yet to upgrade their full year estimates following the scintillating H1 results.Reckon the estimates will be upped by atleast 30% imo.That together with the increasing penetration into the Cryptos market makes the stock ridiculously cheap at current levels

[cfro] 20/8/2017 17:34

Holding PLUS is a great way to play the current Crypto mania - as they will of course benefit which-ever way they move!

[sailing john] 18/8/2017 17:29

Another great observational post PL - I especially like the last bit!!!!!

Edit - An interesting article - "Making a mint with Initial Coin Offerings"



Cryptos in the financial/investor press every day with Bitcoin rising 60% in the past two weeks. - A nice stable currency then!!!! given what goes up often comes back down!

Lots of free advertising for PLUS and others as Investors seek out ways to jump on board. And traders take opposing short positions perhaps.

[planelondon] 18/8/2017 15:51

PLUS have had first mover advantage when it comes to Cryptos. It's not just the fat margins on these products that are to like but also the low-cost of crypto client acquisition and the fact they trade Sat/Sun adding an extra 40% to the trading (and revenue producing) week. PLUS dominate Google Adwords surrounding all things Cryptos currencies on Google search. Until other CFD/Spread betting providers catch up, Crypto Adwords are relatively speaking, less expensive to purchase compared to normal Adwords CFD/Spread-betting providers target. Hence, the lower AUAC in Q2. Further, I would have thought that prospective Crypto customers are of high value being the speculative/risk-seeking/gambling/greedy(?!)types.