Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[nurdin] 16/8/2017 08:43

IGG trading at 14x...that level of discount is not justified imo.I will accept 12x for PLUS as a reasonable target.

[sailing john] 16/8/2017 08:36

Yikes PLUS through 900 - that didn't take long!

Target remains 1000+ and will hold through to FY as they have good momentum
I'm hoping for a move to a Premium listing where they will comfortably sit in the FTSE250 as MC now reached £1bn

My cautious model PE is 7.1 at 900 (and 7.9 at 1000)

Buybacks appear to be on hold presumably they will only enter the market when price stability reached. Perhaps they have a MACD or similar rule which would make sense as no point chasing price and effectively amplifying momentum.
SJ

[sailing john] 15/8/2017 11:37

Yes and H2 likely to be slightly higher given Q2 strength and momentum/current trading statements/outlook in H1 results
My model PE at 875p is 6.9 - and I am always cautious!

btw £1m MC would put them in the FTSE 250 if they do decide to go for a premium listing.
Perhaps a FY Results announcement in Feb?

[sailing john] 15/8/2017 10:58

PLUS just became a £1bn pound company!

Might have to have a little drink later to celebrate!

[pbutterworth1] 15/8/2017 08:43

EL C is is right, there is a sector of the market that doesn't like PLUS. Why ? because they do not like where they come from, what they stand for, and some of the errors (of the past). However, time runs on and management has much more experience than even two years ago. A great long term opp as Mr M gradually catches up....

[thorpematt] 14/8/2017 21:26

Well here's what I think (FWIW):-

Re-ratings can take a little while.
Th re-rating is actually occurring!
The market does not at all mis-trust this stock - it has an issue with the sector generally (regulatory concerns).
PLUS is IMO less troublesome than most in the sector because of its business model and controls.
The market may still have concerns on the effect upon earnings due to future regulation requirements.
I see that final one as not nearly as bad as was once feared.


Finally I would add that there was an interesting article in FT relating to the proliferation of monies into ETFs (and a concern that any unwinding of this may cause a liquidity issue and potential market crash). There is some weight behind this fear. It's obvious that the cheap cost of money and fact that returns on bonds and bank deposits is so poor have led to an inflow of cash into abstract financial products. However for me it is all really just noise. In fact it details additional reasons why there is growth to the company's offerring.

PLUS was over-sold and the future of the business for the foreseeable term is bright. The business model is fairly simple in reality and the company very transparent in its dealings.

[elcapital2017] 14/8/2017 10:55

Agree with that....and vice versa too!

[stuffee] 14/8/2017 10:46

The existence of many bears inspires my bullishness!

Dangerous to be long of any stock where the whole world rates it a buy.

[elcapital2017] 14/8/2017 10:42

There are a lot of bears and you cant argue that this has always traded at a lower rating than other possible comparatives.

[stuffee] 14/8/2017 10:34

El Cap

Not sure I agree with your point:

"The figures are too good and the City does not trust the company".

Virtually all profits are created into cash, which it can then distribute / buy back. I therefore feel there is absolutely no reason to doubt the numbers or management integrity.

I have also been told the new Chairman, Penelope Judd, has impressed investors' meetings, with her background with UBS and Nomura in Compliance roles, which has strengthened confidence.

Don't you feel the reason for the discounted rating is entirely due to regulatory concerns? The FCA and other overseas regulators are due to publish recommendations for the industry early in 2018, which could restrict clients' exposure to losses, advertising and leverage. The first point, which may be the Regulators' chief concern, should not affect Plus, due to its existing policy of limiting any losses to amount deposited; indeed it may benefit to the extent it restricts competitors. Possible restrictions on advertising and leverage will continue to detract certain investors' involvement with Plus. Difficult to speculate on extent this has been discounted, but I certainly continue my bullish view, which I have had for last four years.

[sailing john] 14/8/2017 09:10

Just back from holiday - stunning Q2 last week but Mr M still playing catch up!!!

Updated my model FY Revenue now $400m with a PAT of $190m (£146m) eps 128p

PE just 6.7 at 850p and only 7.9 at 1000p

Revised my target to North of 1000p

VIX through 15, market nerves and buybacks also driving price North

GL - SJ

Edit - Leaprate summary - 

[nurdin] 14/8/2017 08:35

The recent market volatility is all good for PLUS ..:o)

[planelondon] 13/8/2017 11:41

Nurdin/Handykart: perhaps the market and institutional investors will become more comfortable when/if this stock moves to the main market/FTSE250. Something that if we read between the lines in the interim results RNS could happen in the near future - "This strengthens our UK based non-executive directors and our commitment to good governance and best practice regulatory compliance. The Company has incorporated a best practice approach used by London main list companies in its Board composition and its variety of Board committees."

This would bring increased disclosure/transparency which would be a good thing IMO.

[elcapital2017] 12/8/2017 19:40

You need to read it again slowly.

[nurdin] 12/8/2017 19:13

..and yet the price has almost doubled since April !

[elcapital2017] 12/8/2017 17:59

Here is your problem

The figures are too good and the City does not trust teh company, so there will never be a rerating like ratboy suggests. It will always trade on a low PE because there is no belief. Maybe one day that suspicion will be proven...who knows. Every set of results the bulls say it will be rerated....it never is

[handykart] 12/8/2017 17:48

Freddie, no one knew how very good the interims were going to be. So do not see how it could be factored into the share price

[handykart] 12/8/2017 17:45

Nursing, I think the brokers will be updating their forecasts,in view of the interim results.

[freddie ferret] 12/8/2017 16:35

I think either this is going to rerate strongly upward over the next couple of years to say PE 20-30 or it will remain a high yielding slightly spivvy stock.

I'm not sure which way it will go.
The recent half year results were either already factored into the share price or this has some way to go north yet after the more or less doubling in profits. That is just to stay on the already existing notional PE.

Fridays fall was almost certainly a partial technical correction to the recent rapid strong rise IMHO.

Guess what I am saying overall is that this may fall a bit further and stick; or rise by several hundred % over the next couple of years. Sorry to be so helpfull. :)

[nurdin] 12/8/2017 13:54

Just cant understand the brokers forecasts here..unless they are subject to revision after the stonking H1 results.Brokers are forecasting eps of 110c for the full year when they did 79c in H1...ie they are forecast to do just 31c in H2!!That is bonkers! There is no seasonality in their business and in fact H2 yields much higher earnings than H1, looking at the past records( last year H2 earnings were up by 60% over H1!)

So it strikes me that either I am missing something..or brokers estimates are glaring wrong to the point of absurdity.

A fantastic opportunity to buy here before the market cottons on imo.

PS: If you assume that they only repeat the H1 performance in H2 then the full years eps comes to around 158c ( or circa 122p) putting the share at the current price at a PE of just 6.6...!

[elcapital2017] 11/8/2017 18:05

Well done rat boy! Thanks for the running commentary that every can see at the top of the page

[freddie ferret] 11/8/2017 15:07

Down a bit over 50p so far today.