Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 02/6/2017 17:44

TVH - correct
I had previously modeled Q2 17 at $75m but increased to $82.5m following IGs TS on Weds
That is actually $2.5m below the normal and consistent (last 3 quarters) ratio of Rev at PLUS compared to IGG but I was struggling to believe they could do $85m.
I think we will see more progress next week once the big boys have updated models and had their trading strategy signed off.
GL - SJ

[thevaluehunter] 02/6/2017 16:04

"We are pleased to report that compared to the first quarter, in subsequent trading revenue has been stronger and profit margins have been maintained."

In my opinion this would suggest that Q2 year on year is currently significantly ahead of Q2 last year. (Q1 2016 $85.2m; Q2 2016 $73.6; Q1 2017 $77.5m)

[planelondon] 02/6/2017 14:43

Following on from Sailing John's post at 13:50: Plus also have superior management, talented staff, a low cost customer service centre in Sofia Bulgaria, diversified earnings and technological advantage. I'm my option, over the medium term Plus will become the world's No. 1 for retail CFD and leverage trading on multiply measures of performance.

[freddie ferret] 02/6/2017 14:22

Lydnem.

Sorry, but you really are a fool.

I'm still not sure what your real agenda is? Are you?

[sailing john] 02/6/2017 13:50

Morning Lyd - with a PE of 7 and a Yield of 8.5%-13.5% depending on special this has a way to go yet to reach fair value

Especially as PLUS matures and Mr Market starts to realise that they are in the same business as IGG/CMCX who trade on a PE of 12+ currently.

Of course as you keep saying PLUS and IGG aren't the same and you are correct!
PLUS only have a 20% exposure to UK vs IGG 50%
PLUS only trade CFDs - IGG also trade Spreadbets and Binaries to existing users!!! Yikes!
PLUS return most or all cash generated via divis and now buybacks. IG?
PLUS have cut marketing cost recently and already had a very lean model
PLUS Sponsor Atletico Madrid and Brumbies Aus Rugby vs IG Harlequins only
GL - SJ

[lydnem] 02/6/2017 13:09

Looks like it might finish lower on the day. Buyback is interesting.........will the directors be selling more into it?

[planelondon] 02/6/2017 11:47

Now that was a surprise! Always thought the share buy back facility was there to protect against Playtech aggressively selling down their near 10% holding. Normally, I'm not a fan of share buy backs and believe excess cash is better returned to shareholders as dividends. However, in this case, USD 10m buy back has at the moment resulted in GBP 50m increased market cap. What's not to like?

[thevaluehunter] 02/6/2017 11:40

I loaded up the boat at just below £4 too.

[sailing john] 02/6/2017 09:00

Mr M catching up with events but still a long way to go!

A nice 50% profit (inc divi) for anyone who bought in Jan 17 at 400!

Impressed that they have increased Rev despite record low VIX and that they have maintained margins which increased significantly from Q4 16.

GL - SJ

[sailing john] 02/6/2017 08:33

Cash generated in first 5 months $54.5m or circa $11m/month
Of course we don't know how much tax has been paid over the 5 months but if as usual they have paid circa 50% then PAT higher than my model but I'm sticking with a cautious 2H for now.

My cautious model output now
PE 7 at (543 and 1.29) with a yield of 8.5 - 13.5% dependent on special
dyor SJ

[sailing john] 02/6/2017 08:03

So no listing announcement
But positive TS similar to IG
And a small share buy back
Very positive - tried to add a few on the bell but failed - too cheeky on price!
GL - SJ

[sailing john] 01/6/2017 18:23

Planelondon - spot on
My understanding is that it couldn't happen back in 2014 because they didn't have sufficient accounting history. (Main market rules issue)
They then had the onboarding difficulties in 2015 and the Playtech bid in 2016 so not surprised that it didn't happen in 2015 or 2016
But we now have a situation where PLUS is clearly undervalued relative to peers and a move to the Main market might rectify this situation.
Still hopeful of an announcement pre open but if not I can wait - likely to happen eventually.
GL - SJ

[planelondon] 01/6/2017 17:32

I presume Sailing John was alluring to a move from AIM to the main London market? Penelope Judd is ideally experienced for such an undertaking given her career background (ex UK Listing Authority). I often wondered why Plus never proceeded with the move after setting out their intention in early 2014 to make then move. I always took the view that this didn't happen as the Board didn't think at that time, the increased cost, management time and enhanced reporting was worth it. Maybe you're on to something Sailing John!

[lydnem] 01/6/2017 12:53

Doubt they would get 300!

[the monkster] 01/6/2017 12:40

a takeover at 3 quid ??

[sailing john] 31/5/2017 17:32

IGG report quarterly one month ahead of PLUS so you get a good idea in advance of PLUS's quarter end where they are headed - in this case for Q2 (IGG's Q4).

There is very good correlation between IGG Quarterly Revenue and PLUS quarterly revenue (corrected for exchange rate). In the previous three quarters the variance between IGG and PLUS's revenue has only varied by less than one percentage point which is actually quite surprising.

The big difference at the moment is that PLUS have significantly reduced marketing costs so I only look at IGG for Revenue guidance and market commentary.

AGM tomorrow - but it doesn't start until 4:30pm!
I for one will be looking at the after hours RNSs to see if they announce anything for discussion at the AGM. I have a theory! - something that was mentioned in the Prelim Results for 2013!

GL - SJ

[thevaluehunter] 31/5/2017 16:36

In my opinion much of the sales differences between IGG and Plus are down to the timing of the quarters. IGG closes the quarters Aug, Nov, Feb, May whilst Plus closes Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec. For Plus Q1 2016 was a very strong in terms of revenue but Q2 2016 was much weaker. I agree that Plus looks cheap at these levels and a long term hold for me.

[sailing john] 31/5/2017 08:23

IGG FY TS read through to PLUS
I'm only interested in IGG Q4 rev so I can update my PLUS model for Q2

IGG Revenue up circa £9m in Q4 vs Q3 (back calc from TS info) - and I had assumed slightly down for PLUS (low volatility) so have revised my model for FY by +$10m

Result is a PE of around 6.5 for PLUS vs a PE of 12 for IGG (and over 12? for CMCX though not fully modelled) at current prices

IGG opened strongly +2.5% - PLUS not yet woken up - always takes the big boys a while to crunch the numbers!

[sailing john] 30/5/2017 09:47

On the move again today with a potentially interesting week ahead

IGG likely to report Q4 trading on Weds or Thurs this week. We know volatility has been low in equities but currencies have been on the move in May. The key figure for me will be Revenue so I can refine my PLUS Q2 estimate (I'm expecting flat or slightly down vs Q3 at IGG and will assume the same for PLUS)

And PLUS AGM late Thursday

Plenty of volatility drivers in the news, Car loans, Greece, Italy, Trump and family etc.

[planelondon] 27/5/2017 19:45

Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility has continued into the weekend. Plus500 is the leading CFD providers of these instruments. This could be very positive for Q2 revenues.

[lampran] 26/5/2017 10:01

Is there any more info out on when FCA ruling into CFDs is due?

[sailing john] 26/5/2017 09:41

Back through 500 and gap opening vs IGG and CMCX!

Chart below excludes the 50p divi due from PLUS vs 9p IGG and zero from CMCX

PE at Plus still around half that of IGG with a Yield likely to be more than double with specials!

Cracking hedge in potentially toppy markets - a downturn will be good for PLUS and other brokers

Remains my largest position.

SJ

[rackers1] 22/5/2017 09:37

we dont have you filtered coz we enjoy you showing us which stocks to short - like NLG eh rabbit

[lydnem] 22/5/2017 09:15

I have you filtered, for being a moron.